atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The GGEM operational which is colder and shows snow and or frozen for some of the areas is actually an outlier to its own ensemble means.. Its not till 96 hrs when perhaps there would be some frozen in N PA and NNJ The GGEM means kind of give credence to the warmer solution shown via the 18 Z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It's funny that the two models that are usually more west and wrapped-up are actually the farthest south and coldest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z NAM gives KPHL 0.60" QPF lowest sfc temp is 34.8°, so I would think very little of that accumulates as snow. Surprisingly though, the column is cold all the way up at 66 and 72, during which 0.17" would theoretically fall as snow (though not accumulate as 2m temps are 34.9 and 37.7 respectively) hr78 has a little warm layer of +0.8 at 750mb, the rest is < 0. hr84 is +0.3 at 850mb, and < 0 elsewhere excluding the surface. I gotta run an errand, you guys can take a look at ABE, maybe they fare better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The GGEM operational which is colder and shows snow and or frozen for some of the areas is actually an outlier to its own ensemble means.. Its not till 96 hrs when perhaps there would be some frozen in N PA and NNJ The GGEM means kind of give credence to the warmer solution shown via the 18 Z GFS... I've heard that the GGEM ens are crap, but since they support the GFS op and ECM op (I haven't check those ens) I would assume this is the likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z NAM gives KPHL 0.60" QPF lowest sfc temp is 34.8°, so I would think very little of that accumulates as snow. Surprisingly though, the column is cold all the way up at 66 and 72, during which 0.17" would theoretically fall as snow (though not accumulate as 2m temps are 34.9 and 37.7 respectively) hr78 has a little warm layer of +0.8 at 750mb, the rest is < 0. hr84 is +0.3 at 850mb, and < 0 elsewhere excluding the surface. I gotta run an errand, you guys can take a look at ABE, maybe they fare better The column is cold at 66, 72, 78 and 84 at ABE. 2m temps start at 31.9, then spikes to 37.3 at 72, then back down to 33.1 and finally 31.7 at hr 84. NWS says all snow/sleet Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Even though I am ready to start playing tennis, and I loved the warmth at the end of last week, I'd still love to see another snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z NAM cold enough in the upper levels but gets the freezing line pretty far north at 66 hrs.. Essentially up on the NY/PA border with a dip south into Central PA... At 72 the freezing line at the surface drops back down to about east central PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z NAM cold enough in the upper levels but gets the freezing line pretty far north at 66 hrs.. Essentially up on the NY/PA border with a dip south into Central PA... At 72 the freezing line at the surface drops back down to about east central PA per nam soundings phl is snow for the first half inch or so of qpf then over to sleet. Major inversion at 700mb...i would expect the nam to continue to bump further north with the furture runs decreasing the threat of snow for these area, and increasing them for the pocs and nw nj on north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 per nam soundings phl is snow for the first half inch or so of qpf then over to sleet. Major inversion at 700mb Interesting considering the temperatures are in the range (keyword range) of 33-40 at hrs 66, 69,72, 75,78 So if somehow frozen would manage to fall it would have a very difficult time even trying to accumulate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Does sleet "accumulate" better than snow, despite the crappy 3:1 ratio. Or is it all basically the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ugh... between 40s and cold rain or 30s with some snow...i'll root for the latter let's see if the NAM can win one more time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0z NAM accumulates 1.65" at KPHL Hour, 2m temp, and warmest level below: hr60: 35.4... 950mb is -0.8, whole column is sub-freezing except surface hr66: 37.1... +1.1 at 750mb, 800mb is also slightly above frz hr72: 35.6... +2.3 at 750mb, above frz from 750 down to 850 hr78: 35.4... +0.7 at 850mb, 800mb is also +0.6 hr84: 34.2... 800mb is -1.4, whole column below frz 0.63" accumulates as SN verbatim, 0.44" on the front and 0.19" on the back. The rest would be IP, although even most of that wouldn't stick. Also remember that this is the LR NAM, so expect QPF amounts to dry up during this week's runs. Look how much it dries up between 60 and 66...that's concerning if you ask me. Though for the LV and Pocs, there could be some being made Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The infamous DT says: ** ALERT ALERT *** significant late season SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING for Northeast PA NW NJ southern interior NY... Hudson from White Plains to Albany and all iof INTERIOR New England...6 to 12" Pretty ballsy, but then again that is DT. At least he didn't bite on the NAM and include the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 just for laughs... here's the SV clown map. Image courtesy of Storm Vista model maps: ( mods, just wanted to post this 1 pic from there. Not sure what the policy is on this, so if it's against policy, i apologize in advance) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z GFS is essentially a cold heavy rain for those in PA..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ugh... between 40s and cold rain or 30s with some snow...i'll root for the latter let's see if the NAM can win one more time Have to take note of how consistent the NAM has been with the storm, even at this time frame. I'm not super-interested until we get more support, but glad I can follow it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Well, the GFS says we may still get snow, but with the storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Have to take note of how consistent the NAM has been with the storm, even at this time frame. I'm not super-interested until we get more support, but glad I can follow it. 1/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Deleted the prior cause i forgot I had NYC in there.. Here is ABE WED 12Z 23-MAR 0.8 -2.2 1013 89 95 0.18 556 545 WED 18Z 23-MAR 1.6 -1.0 1007 91 94 0.13 553 547 THU 00Z 24-MAR 1.3 0.8 1002 98 88 0.24 547 546 THU 06Z 24-MAR 1.1 1.0 999 98 34 0.05 539 540 THU 12Z 24-MAR 1.2 -3.1 999 97 84 0.04 535 535 THU 18Z 24-MAR 4.2 -6.1 1004 64 75 0.03 538 535 FRI 00Z 25-MAR -1.4 -7.5 1010 68 8 0.01 541 533 .68 total QPF at ABE... Marginal at the surface at the start ..so perhaps an inch or two but with the thicknesses probably a warm layer in there... Otherwise still looks like a cold rain though the QPF is not as great as the GFS is .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Anyone betting on the NAM later in the week might want to consider just how badly it did just this morning, and that was last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Colder start with more SN/IP than expected today signal a repeat on Thursday? One can only hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Why aren't people discussing this more? This could be a pretty big storm for a good part of the region. The 12z NAM shows significant snow for central NJ north, and the latest SREF prob maps show a huge sleetstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Colder start with more SN/IP than expected today signal a repeat on Thursday? One can only hope... You may be one of the only ones. I'm through with craptastic weather after 80 degrees last Friday. Why aren't people discussing this more? This could be a pretty big storm for a good part of the region. The 12z NAM shows significant snow for central NJ north, and the latest SREF prob maps show a huge sleetstorm. 1) It's the NAM.2) It's the NAM after 60 hours.3) It's late March.4) It's not showing as much for Philly. If it were plastering Philly you'd see more buzz on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You may be one of the only ones. I'm through with craptastic weather after 80 degrees last Friday. 1) It's the NAM.2) It's the NAM after 60 hours.3) It's late March.4) It's not showing as much for Philly. If it were plastering Philly you'd see more buzz on it. Plus, last night's 0Z NAM showed like 0.01" back home for THIS MORNING... it busted by about 3000% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You may be one of the only ones. I'm through with craptastic weather after 80 degrees last Friday. 1) It's the NAM.2) It's the NAM after 60 hours.3) It's late March.4) It's not showing as much for Philly. If it were plastering Philly you'd see more buzz on it. This x a million. We already have a lot of blooming going on and leaves on some trees in Manhattan. Snow/cold time should be done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The way this sets up, we could be seeing rain here while NYC is getting snow....seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 <br />This x a million. We already have a lot of blooming going on and leaves on some trees in Manhattan. Snow/cold time should be done.<br /><br /><br /><br />And again the differences on this board. Early spring has had snow in the past, just like we can get very warm weather in late September/October. I don't mind snow - it's snowless cold in spring I could do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If this was November, going into December the buzz would be bigger. Most (or atleast some) of us in eastern PA are sick of winter weather, and would rather it not happen at all. Also the best potential snows are aimed north of the PA Turnpike, out of many posters backyards in this region. If, I lived in NE PA though, it would definetely have my attention more (whether I was pro-snow or no-snow), but where I'm at, after the warmth of last week.....I'd rather fast-forward through these next 2 weeks and hope for ridging over the Southeast to reestablish itself in early April. I think those of you in NE PA and north Jersey could have quite a snowy mess to deal with Wed-Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GFS definitely says it will try to snow all the way down to Trenton (at least) early Wednesday morning. Whether it sticks or ends up mainly melting like this morning, hard to say right now. Still has a warm low level but the rest of the column is cold. Another tricky one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If this was November, going into December the buzz would be bigger. Most of us in eastern PA are sick of winter weather, and would rather it not happen at all. Also the best potential snows are aimed north of the PA Turnpike, out of many posters backyards in this region. If, I lived in NE PA though, it would definetely have my attention more (whether I was pro-snow or no-snow), but where I'm at, after the warmth of last week.....I'd rather fast-forward through these next 2 weeks and hope for ridging over the Southeast to reestablish itself in early April. I think those of you in NE PA and north Jersey could have quite a snowy mess to deal with Wed-Thur. Getting OT, but I don't like how the split has sent the central and NW NJ people into the NYC side. I wish this was more clearly spelled out in the subforum descriptions. I complained about this to Rib but nothing ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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