LVblizzard Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Most models are showing a moderate winter storm for at least the northern half of the region. Today's Euro was snowy along I-78 and the DGEX buried Voyager's house. And look at the latest SREF probs from the 21z run: It's shaping up to be a wintry start of spring. This looks to be a legit threat to add to some people's snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 One more hit to close out the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 00z GFS has come more north and is warmer compared to prior runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Most models are showing a moderate winter storm for at least the northern half of the region. Today's Euro was snowy along I-78 and the DGEX buried Voyager's house. And look at the latest SREF probs from the 21z run: It's shaping up to be a wintry start of spring. This looks to be a legit threat to add to some people's snow totals. You know, if this was a month ago, this storm would be construed an epic storm to a lot of Philly and Jersey posters. But because this storm as an inland runner, nobody cares. I hope it dumps a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You know, if this was a month ago, this storm would be construed an epic storm to a lot of Philly and Jersey posters. But because this storm as an inland runner, nobody cares. I hope it dumps a foot It's not really an inland runner per se, since it actually slides south of us. I've been waiting for one of these for a long time, where everyone gets roughly the same QPF and there aren't any sharp cut-offs and upstate whining. too bad it's late March now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 00z GGEM disagrees with the 00z GFS and is more like the 12 Z ECM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Pretty impressive for a model that generally likes to run a tad warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No one in PA is gonna like the 0z EURO.. takes the low across PA.. maybe some front end dump on the poconos..996 over northern OH will bring in some decent WAA as it traverses from there to the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No one in PA is gonna like the 0z EURO.. takes the low across PA.. maybe some front end dump on the poconos..996 over northern OH will bring in some decent WAA as it traverses from there to the coast.. Yep ..correct..its well north of its 12 Z run and not only warmer at the surface but warmer at the 850 level as well...Not a good run for those that were looking at snow out of this system... EVen places like AVP are much warmer and might be just rain as well and also lower on the QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No one in PA is gonna like the 0z EURO.. takes the low across PA.. maybe some front end dump on the poconos..996 over northern OH will bring in some decent WAA as it traverses from there to the coast.. If it means no snow then this person in PA likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No one in PA is gonna like the 0z EURO.. takes the low across PA.. maybe some front end dump on the poconos..996 over northern OH will bring in some decent WAA as it traverses from there to the coast.. The last time there was a similar look to the pattern (last Feb with the 2/21 event) the Euro was suppressed and then came back north as the ridge was a bit stronger than initially modeled. We're getting that same look again, perhaps? North trend FTW? (except for those who like snow in late March) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 If it means no snow then this person in PA likes it. 30s and rain isn't exactly a better alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 30s and rain isn't exactly a better alternative. For me it is. At least with the rain, once it stops, drying can begin. With any kind of accumulating snow, you have the snow melt and run-off for a few days, or even longer, which keeps things (like the haul roads in the mines) wet and muddy much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Generally I would like snow. But when its warm in the 60's and 70's I get mind controlled by the sun and I tend to see any cold days as something I don't want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Bring on the sun, I want to plant my veggies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Big differences between the NAM/Canadian and the new GFS/Euro. Snow is still on the table, but I'd like to see more model agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12 Z ECM Surface temps 33-35 @ KABE with 850s below freezing...with .60 QPF AVP Highest surface temp is +1.5 at the end with .61 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It's not really an inland runner per se, since it actually slides south of us. I've been waiting for one of these for a long time, where everyone gets roughly the same QPF and there aren't any sharp cut-offs and upstate whining. too bad it's late March now, lol This time, if you want snow, there'll likely be downstate whining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 New Day 3 HPC snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This time, if you want snow, there'll likely be downstate whining. There wont be any downstate whinning from me for the snow. I am ready for spring to fully take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12 Z ECM Surface temps 33-35 @ KABE with 850s below freezing...with .60 QPF AVP Highest surface temp is +1.5 at the end with .61 QPF Looked as if critical thickness was at or about 546? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looked as if critical thickness was at or about 546? yea i bet there is a sneaky warm layer in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looked as if critical thickness was at or about 546? Yep that would be correct...been telling people that i know that i do not see snow happening here...pretty much IMO its over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18 Z GFS is basically rain for this system now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z NAM FTW!!!! 84hrs to go.. shows about 8-12, 12" plus across PA with more to go..4-8 philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z NAM FTW!!!! 84hrs to go.. shows about 8-12, 12" plus across PA with more to go..4-8 philly If that's even all snow, it would have trouble accumulating because surface temps would be in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z NAM FTW!!!! 84hrs to go.. shows about 8-12, 12" plus across PA with more to go..4-8 philly Yep, did not budge from 12z at least with 850s. Threat not over. Heavy snow may accumulate at something like 34 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 just going by the SV clown maps... not buying it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z NAM FTW!!!! 84hrs to go.. shows about 8-12, 12" plus across PA with more to go..4-8 philly lol @ the bolded I wouldn't get too excited...the 850 line is sitting right over the city at 84 hrs out. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_18z/f84.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 lol @ the bolded I wouldn't get too excited...the 850 line is sitting right over the city at 84 hrs out. http://www.meteo.psu...APA_18z/f84.gif O i know, read above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Gotta love the NAM for not giving in yet. Holding strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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