Avid6eek Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Moderate snow...closing in on an inch. It's sticking to everything, including paved surfaces. Temps hovering around 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not to be a party pooper, but isn't this thread supposed to be about the March 23-24th storm? Anyone have additional thought's on that storm? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The 12z NAM (vs. 6z) looks much wetter on the cold side along with the LP bit more north and stronger. 6z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Silly NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Most recent HPC Snowfall probabilities for 4" / 8" during the 8AM Wednesday - 8AM Thursday timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It will be interesting to see how far north this Low for Wed shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Code red from HPC for 4+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 heres DT's first guess. I'd love for this to verify but I think it might end up further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 heres DT's first guess. I'd love for this to verify but I think it might end up further south. Based on the 00z model runs. The amounts around Greene and Albany counties look a little high; like you said it might be more to the north than it should be. but overall, the map looks good.....The GFS is a little more to the north with this than the NAM..And the Models are having minor timing issues...But, the Models are in better temp agreement with this storm than they were with the Sun/Mon storm..The major fly's in the ointment will be warm air intrusion and the March sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 heres DT's first guess. I'd love for this to verify but I think it might end up further south. I think this is somewhat overdone as far as the need for 8-12" regions. I suppose I wouldn't rule out some 8+ reports out of this event, but I think those reports will remain isolated at this point. To me, this looks like an extended (18-24 Hour) Advisory event for the region roughly along and south of I-90... say 4-9" (best chance of 7-9" over higher terrain above 1500' on the Allegheny Plateau). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 0z Euro QPF totals thru H 60 / 12z Thursday. Verbatim, the Western Southern Tier (Chaut-Catt-Alleg cnty's) changes to rain on Wednesday Afternoon then to snow Wednesday Evening. Surface temp's are slightly above 32°F across C NY Wednesday Afternoon when light precip moves in, so there could be some mixing at the start... especially in the valleys... but it's mainly snow for everyone outside the Western Southern Tier on the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 343 AM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM COULD IMPACT NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK EAST TODAY...AND INTO THE MID WEST TONIGHT. THIS STORM WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THIS WINTER STORM COULD BRING HEAVY SNOW TO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED. STEUBEN-CHEMUNG-TIOGA-BROOME- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORNING...HORNELL...ELMIRA...OWEGO...BINGHAMTON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS: ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. * HAZARDS: HEAVY SNOW. SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS: POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 7 INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED IS DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW COULD MIX WITH SLEET IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR THE BULK OF THE STORM. * WINDS: NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS: HEAVY SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITY COULD HAMPER TRAVEL LATE TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DJN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like in CNY we'll be bystanders as it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avid6eek Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like in CNY we'll be bystanders as it looks right now. That's not such a bad thing this time of year. It will just be a bunch fo slop that keeps things messy for another week. Unless it's going to be a major storm with 18"+, I'll pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 That's not such a bad thing this time of year. It will just be a bunch fo slop that keeps things messy for another week. Unless it's going to be a major storm with 18"+, I'll pass. Yep. I'm sick of winter this year. I wanna be out working in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Latest NAM and RGEM has shifted north a good deal from their respective previous runs: RGEM: NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think this is somewhat overdone as far as the need for 8-12" regions. I suppose I wouldn't rule out some 8+ reports out of this event, but I think those reports will remain isolated at this point. To me, this looks like an extended (18-24 Hour) Advisory event for the region roughly along and south of I-90... say 4-9" (best chance of 7-9" over higher terrain above 1500' on the Allegheny Plateau). I agree...The storm will have a sharp cut off.......I don't see much of the white stuff falling north of I-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anyone have the QPF from the12z ECM? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anyone have the QPF from the12z ECM? Thanks... 12z Euro is a smidge south of 0z run. I'll draw a QPF map here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z Euro QPF thru 8AM Thursday when the precip pulls east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 BUF and BGM have posted Advisories and Warnings. Not exactly on the same page with one another though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 S. Oneida County ??? Tonight A chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 29. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The North Country could see 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 S. Oneida County ??? Tonight A chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. North wind between 5 and 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Wednesday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 29. East wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 19. East wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sounds just about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I thought the trend was north. Guess we'll see which NWS office is right Thursday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I thought the trend was north. Guess we'll see which NWS office is right Thursday am. I can understand the confusion...It is a tricky track...The models are trending a little colder. And even though the bulk of this will be suppressed to the south...I think a a inch or two north of the Mohawk Valley is a good bet. The snow will slowly end west to east Thursday.....Before areas downwind of Ontario pick-up a little LES Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Warm advection will give forecasters a headache. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 These types of storms this season have been a headache for all of us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 These types of storms this season have been a headache for all of us! Very true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Check out the line of precip from SE NY to Montana...pretty cool. Radar Pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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