CNYWxGuy Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12z Euro is the most aggressive / favorable model for snowfall across Upstate NY at this time. Here was the 12z GFS... 12z GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like the return of winter Sunday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming east between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Monday: Snow and sleet before 11am, then rain. High near 42. South wind between 15 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 18. Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 BGM... LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 4 PM UPDATE... AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH ONE STORM WED TO THU FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY EVENING WHICH MOVES SLOWLY EAST AS SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND A SFC LOW. THE SFC LOW MOVES EAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. WITH THE TRACK SO FAR SOUTH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW. WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING APPEAR TO BE THE BEST TIME FOR A MIX ACROSS NE PA...BUT MODELS KEEP IT COLD ENOUGH ACROSS UPSTATE NY FOR JUST SNOW. LIQUID AMOUNTS ARE DECENT SO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COULD STICK ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scratch Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 A snowfall warning has been issued for Montreal.. 4 to 6 inches of wet snow is forecasted for tomorrow! Oh well, now I'm off to partake in some St. Patrick's Day parade festivities! :-) Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I don't even think it will be exceptionally wet.... Looks like 2 to 4 inches here and ends as some light rain, but the main burst of qpf comes through as snow even here south of the low track. 16F/-9C out in the hilly countryside here this morning. We are now devoid of snow in 90% of the fields and sunny areas, still a few to maybe 8 inches in the deep woods....ancient cruddy stuff. A snowfall warning has been issued for Montreal.. 4 to 6 inches of wet snow is forecasted for tomorrow! Oh well, now I'm off to partake in some St. Patrick's Day parade festivities! :-) Cheers, Scratch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Tonight thru Monday Night. ..There will be a little SN/IP or all snow (depending where you are) up front before it changes over to RA by midmorning or so Monday. there could be some snow... but not enough to get me excited. I guess the Catskills could see an one or two inches, and the higher terrain Northwest of Albany might see as much as 4 inches.... If it were still February, I would say we would do well. However, it's mid March. and that March sunshine can reek havoc. This will have to be watched because the potential is there. As for Wed/Thur..The temps will be cold enough for this to fall as all snow...But, warm air advection will be an issue...So I don't think there will be huge accumulations.Of course if the track changes so will my forecast..But, the way it looks right now I don't expect to see much in the way of snow accumulation. Looking out past Thursday...The Greenland block could make things interesting for the upcoming weekend into next week....It will keep cold air locked in....So time will tell If the Great Lakes want to come out and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12z NAM brings more than .5 of QPF around GFL mostly frozen. The question now is the ratios......whether we deal with a slushy inch or two or a solid 4-5" snowfall Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 while i had my eye on tonights and mondays event, i didnt think too much was going to come from it so not much attention paid. i have really only been looking at the GFS and euro models the week for about 10 minutes a day.... none of the others. when i saw the EnvCan forecast this morning, i was intrigued to look at the other models. i was surprised by the robust SREF probabilities. i was even more surprised when i saw the wintry week ahead as per the 00z euro. may be time to check out the 12z runs after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Eating lunch in the warm sun in the south facing yard but yard still shows spring is a ways off...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 And the best thing about this week is that the weather can do what it wants to do because I am on vacaion. Andy's vacations+weather=Poor wx for a vacation Enjoying all the write-ups by other members in this thread. Bring on Trout Season! Re-spooling the fly rod reels and ultra-lights this week. Also found my first fly rod that my Dad got for me for my 10th birthday may take it out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Eating lunch in the warm sun in the south facing yard but yard still shows spring is a ways off...................... WOW. Looks like your spring is quite a ways off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 WOW. Looks like your spring is quite a ways off. It is like cement. I was just out playing hockey with a tennis ball with my daughter and running all over the yard, I only sank through in 1 spot.............I'm about 205 lbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It is like cement. I was just out playing hockey with a tennis ball with my daughter and running all over the yard, I only sank through in 1 spot.............I'm about 205 lbs. Yeah right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Tomorrow is just a throw away event - good for padding the seasonal snowfall totals. In my case 2.8" will get me to 100 inches. Based upon the 12Z runs I think that is realistic. Wednesday's event looks like it can get into the moderate range to me..12Z GFS was nice and my bet would trend it a tad more north. Maybe mixing issues and low level warmth probs in the valleys of the Southern Tier and HV below Albany. This time of the year my little 1000 foot elevation can be useful. Crazy timing on the GFS for it's threats re: my travel plans as we all plan a little rendezvous/family gathering in FL. My Mom is supposed to depart ALB at 7:30 AM tomorrow and then my sister's family Thur at 8 AM. Then me a week from Monday...another GFS storm threat. Of course I won't mind in the least if I'm stuck at ALB with my netbook watching snow fall. LOL Tonight thru Monday Night. ..There will be a little SN/IP or all snow (depending where you are) up front before it changes over to RA by midmorning or so Monday. there could be some snow... but not enough to get me excited. I guess the Catskills could see an one or two inches, and the higher terrain Northwest of Albany might see as much as 4 inches.... If it were still February, I would say we would do well. However, it's mid March. and that March sunshine can reek havoc. This will have to be watched because the potential is there. As for Wed/Thur..The temps will be cold enough for this to fall as all snow...But, warm air advection will be an issue...So I don't think there will be huge accumulations.Of course if the track changes so will my forecast..But, the way it looks right now I don't expect to see much in the way of snow accumulation. Looking out past Thursday...The Greenland block could make things interesting for the upcoming weekend into next week....It will keep cold air locked in....So time will tell If the Great Lakes want to come out and play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah right! What?? I just had a physical 2 weeks ago and I was 204......... I just carry it well ......Unless you think I'm heavier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 244 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 MAZ001-NYZ032-033-042-083-VTZ013>015-210900- /O.NEW.KALY.WW.Y.0017.110321T0600Z-110322T0000Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN HERKIMER-HAMILTON-NORTHERN WARREN- SOUTHEAST WARREN-BENNINGTON-WESTERN WINDHAM-EASTERN WINDHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS...ATWELL... BIG MOOSE...EAGLE BAY...MCKEEVER...NOBLEBORO...NORTHWOOD... OLD FORGE...SPECULATOR...WARRENSBURG...GLENS FALLS... WEST GLENS FALLS...BENNINGTON...JACKSONVILLE...NEWFANE... BRATTLEBORO...WEST BRATTLEBORO...BELLOWS FALLS 244 PM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. * LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...NORTHERN LAKE GEORGE AREA...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS INCLUDING EXTREME WESTERN BENNINGTON COUNTY...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND SLEET. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN LAKE GEORGE AREA. 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE EARLY MONDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SNOW CHANGES TO SLEET AND RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES WITH ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE. * TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT...WARMING TO AROUND 40 LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. * VISIBILITIES...BELOW 1 MILE IN SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWxGuy Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 HPC If I didn't know better, I'd say I was looking at an a SWO from the SPC during a mid-summer Derecho pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Tomorrow is just a throw away event - good for padding the seasonal snowfall totals. In my case 2.8" will get me to 100 inches. Based upon the 12Z runs I think that is realistic. Wednesday's event looks like it can get into the moderate range to me..12Z GFS was nice and my bet would trend it a tad more north. Maybe mixing issues and low level warmth probs in the valleys of the Southern Tier and HV below Albany. This time of the year my little 1000 foot elevation can be useful. Crazy timing on the GFS for it's threats re: my travel plans as we all plan a little rendezvous/family gathering in FL. My Mom is supposed to depart ALB at 7:30 AM tomorrow and then my sister's family Thur at 8 AM. Then me a week from Monday...another GFS storm threat. Of course I won't mind in the least if I'm stuck at ALB with my netbook watching snow fall. LOL I think your amount is in the ballpark....It will be fairly windy too.....wind looks to be 15-25 with a few gust close to 40 Wednesdays event could be fairly decent for higher elevations.....if things go right....we can hope. Sitting watching the snow fall is never a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 probably 2-4 wet snow shouldnt be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Eating lunch in the warm sun in the south facing yard but yard still shows spring is a ways off...................... Why does Queensbury have that much snow, what did I miss? I seriously can't remember enough legit storms for that kind of snowpack. Whats your yearly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 They made a nice comeback with the two big snowstorms in late February and early March I know.... Also the benefit of not living on the scorching thaw prone lake plain. ..and having a wooded yard. My lawn is full sun over 80% of it and I'm decimated, but still mainly white in the woods. Why does Queensbury have that much snow, what did I miss? I seriously can't remember enough legit storms for that kind of snowpack. Whats your yearly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Why does Queensbury have that much snow, what did I miss? I seriously can't remember enough legit storms for that kind of snowpack. Whats your yearly? I keep a running total in my signature (91.3"). I believe Andy may have a smidge more in GFL just a few miles east than me and a bit lower in elevation. Like Rick said, the tall pine trees in my neighborhood don't allow the sun many hours to eat away the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice March morning here. I didn't check the temp. but it has to be in the 30-32 range with moderate snow falling. Not much on the ground yet, maybe 0.1" or 0.2". It was starting to stick to the roads in spots and was fairly windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 As I stand here in my garage, next to my motorcycle, I can honestly say this is one of the few times I wish it wasn't snowing. But is sure is pretty out there. Moderate snow at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Snowed for about 15 mim here. Just enough to accent my brown lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nice March morning here. I didn't check the temp. but it has to be in the 30-32 range with moderate snow falling. Not much on the ground yet, maybe 0.1" or 0.2". It was starting to stick to the roads in spots and was fairly windy. It's tapered off to just flurries now, but not before dropping 2.5"-3" in Delhi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Around 1.5 inches thus far. Good pasting of moderate snow + ongoing. 31 degrees..... Snowed for about 15 mim here. Just enough to accent my brown lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 As I stand here in my garage, next to my motorcycle, I can honestly say this is one of the few times I wish it wasn't snowing. But is sure is pretty out there. Moderate snow at the moment. Yeah, I have to admit that I'm ready for spring now and don't want to wear boots anymore - until next November that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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