HM Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Good god do we get smoked this run, the NAO gets cranking good, locks in our 50/50..Shortwave steamrolls across the country and buries us is this the "HM" storm? If it comes this early, then so be it but I won't take credit for it. But yeah, whatever is the last one in a series when the blocking finally gets absorbed into the PNA ridge (like Dec 27) will be the lowest latitude threat for snow. Notice on the 00z GFS another system is on the heels of this 3/28 threat. It isn't until early April when the model produces the suggested pattern above. We'll see...exciting times for sure. This may be one of the coldest finishes to March...top 10? 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z gfs looks pretty good.... weaker and warmer with the thursday system and not as cold in the long run. Lets hope this pattern breaks and we get back in the 60s by April 1st (preferably before then but unfortunately the nao is still neg) Wrong website... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Good god do we get smoked this run, the NAO gets cranking good, locks in our 50/50..Shortwave steamrolls across the country and buries us is this the "HM" storm? Temps are borderline for the NYC area this run, but the favorable upper air pattern is very encouraging and is what matters most at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not too dissimilar from the late dec blizzard set-up actually. Very favorable upper pattern, much moreso than w/ the mid week event. Still, all the pieces need to fall into place for a snowstorm to occur along I-95 at this time of year, but one can't help but be excited w/ that 500mb chart. Agreed on all counts. Here's the surface, for the visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Fairly subtle differences between the 00Z JMA and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Fairly subtle differences between the 00Z JMA and ECMWF. didnt look at the JMA but the EURO is light on qpf and the 32 line stays in NW jersey while 850's never pass NYC. Thats all i can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 didnt look at the JMA but the EURO is light on qpf and the 32 line stays in NW jersey while 850's never pass NYC. Thats all i can say Euro has been inconsistent all winter. Wouldn't trust it if it told me rain was wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro has been inconsistent all winter. Wouldn't trust it if it told me rain was wet. agreed but thats what it has and thats all i can say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 didnt look at the JMA but the EURO is light on qpf and the 32 line stays in NW jersey while 850's never pass NYC. Thats all i can say How much QPF does the Euro give NYC? HPN? Does it look as if my area stays all snow? I assume it's well south of the GFS depiction of this overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 How much QPF does the Euro give NYC? HPN? Does it look as if my area stays all snow? I assume it's well south of the GFS depiction of this overrunning event. yeah its definately south and colder than the gfs which is interesting to say the least. We all get 0.25-0.50 tonight and after this weeks event everyone is in the 0.75-1.00 range so roughly about a half inch of liquid to work with. Hard to tell if its snow w/o soundings but 0c 850's never make it past NYC but the surface looks a tad warm. Probly all snow for you since you got that elevation for backup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 HPC Day 3 heavy snowfall maps brings a moderate risk of 4" snowfall into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z GFS has caved to the Canadian, NOGAPS, and NAM! It is now a massive hit on Wednesday/Thursday for Northern New Jersey and NYC! Looks like 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z GFS has caved to the Canadian, NOGAPS, and NAM! It is now a massive hit on Wednesday/Thursday for Northern New Jersey and NYC! Looks like 6-10 inches. It's certainly further south than 0z, but I'd be much more comfortable to see 12z follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z NOGAPS holds serve. It is still even colder than the GFS and all snow for Northern NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z NOGAPS holds serve. It is still even colder than the GFS and all snow for Northern NJ and NYC. 6Z NAM is the way to go now its getting close its most accurate range - 2- 4 inches Metro NYC - seems reasonable http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamsnow_NE078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro soundings have NYC at 34-36 degrees the entire storm and 850's below Zero. Qpf is about .50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z GFS has caved to the Canadian, NOGAPS, and NAM! It is now a massive hit on Wednesday/Thursday for Northern New Jersey and NYC! Looks like 6-10 inches. No it doesn't.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Troll alert. No it doesn't.....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Troll alert. Dude, take a breather. You were going a little bit over the top with your model descriptions. Instead of replying "troll alert", how about some constructive discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6"-10" is a little over the top. At best, gfs, nam, euro and all other models are 1"-3" for coast and 5"-7" for NW NJ area. We are fighting boundary temps and daylight for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm getting really excited about the 6-8 day threat. One thing is for sure, we all knew that if the blocking came back we were going to be in business in March, and well it finaly came much later than expected. For those that want to see warm weather, this is not the forum for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm getting really excited about the 6-8 day threat. One thing is for sure, we all knew that if the blocking came back we were going to be in business in March, and well it finaly came much later than expected. For those that want to see warm weather, this is not the forum for you. And this is not the thread for this post lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 And this is not the thread for this post lol Maybe so, but I'm not aware of a thread for the latter threat yet. Also, I'm not coming on here trolling about how I want 60's when were talking snow. Edit: I see it now, but again were talking snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I was responding to his, "No it doesn't" comment. I had already done what you said previously. In fact I posted an image of the GFS model showing the precipitation accumulation. Maybe you meant to respond to him? Dude, take a breather. You were going a little bit over the top with your model descriptions. Instead of replying "troll alert", how about some constructive discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Really? I got 3 inches this morning when the forecast was for nothing. 6-10 is over the top? Are you people serious? Wantage, Sussex County got 4.5 inches this morning and Flanders in Morris County got 3.5 inches this morning, and 6-10 for Wednesday's storm is over the top? Honestly, you have got to be kidding me. NOUS41 KPHI 211334 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055- 060>062-067>071-220134- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 934 AM EDT MON MAR 21 2011 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE PAST 7 HOURS FOR THE STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI ********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL******************** LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS SNOWFALL OF /INCHES/ MEASUREMENT NEW JERSEY ...HUNTERDON COUNTY... WHITE HOUSE STATION 1.0 830 AM 3/21 ...MORRIS COUNTY... FLANDERS 3.5 815 AM 3/21 LAKE HOPATCONG 3.3 835 AM 3/21 RANDOLPH TWP 2.8 810 AM 3/21 ...SUSSEX COUNTY... WANTAGE 4.7 920 AM 3/21 LAFAYETTE 1.8 926 AM 3/21 NEWTON 1.8 906 AM 3/21 ...WARREN COUNTY... BLAIRSTOWN 3.0 808 AM 3/21 HACKETTSTOWN 1.0 715 AM 3/21 6"-10" is a little over the top. At best, gfs, nam, euro and all other models are 1"-3" for coast and 5"-7" for NW NJ area. We are fighting boundary temps and daylight for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 New srefs have NYC below 32 at surface the entire storm and upper levels as well. Total QPF is pretty aggressive for the srefs, in this range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 My official forecast for Wednesday is and has been 6-10 inches. Will I be right? Who the heck knows, but I have been saying this for a week now, and I am sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 New srefs have NYC below 32 at surface the entire storm and upper levels as well. Total QPF is pretty aggressive for the srefs, in this range: Dude that is a sweet map for the ensembles. The individuals are pretty consistent except for a couple that have no storm or are NW. Which means if this is storm truly does verify snow for us, the precip total will be higher than what it's currently showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 According to the 12z NAM temperatures once again crash as the precipitation moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks great for snow thru hour 54 for NYC. Surface is close to freezing and 850's are in Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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