Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I just checked the soundings for ABE and it is almost definitely snow. The only layer above freezing is at the surface. That would most likely be a massive hit for ABE and a nice hit for the rest of Northern New Jersey also. Not really when you look at the surface.... at 66 hrs the surface freezing line is up on the NY PA borderline... at 72 hrs it drops back down to about East Central PA... I would be leaning more towards a cold rain at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 No way. Surface is 33-35. 850's and other levels all support snow. NE PA and just south get buried this run. The problem is, that's too warm to get stuff accumulating at the light to moderate rate the NAM has it falling at. This becomes a real problem near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The problem is, that's too warm to get stuff accumulating at the light to moderate rate the NAM has it falling at. This becomes a real problem near the coast. Light in Allentown? NAM had 1.25"+ from Allentown south. We aren't talking about coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 can anyone post QPF totals for the major cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The problem is, that's too warm to get stuff accumulating at the light to moderate rate the NAM has it falling at. This becomes a real problem near the coast. NYC metro wouldn't accumulate much on the NAM except for NJ since we only get a couple frames of .1" QPF, which is not going to cut it in late March. I'm sort of content that the NAM is staying south however, given that the GFS is so far north. Much better chance this gets too warm for us than misses to the south given the track of the H5 shortwave and the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 1.75 qpf max across south Jersey. WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I just checked the soundings for ABE and it is almost definitely snow. The only layer above freezing is at the surface. That would most likely be a massive hit for ABE and a nice hit for the rest of Northern New Jersey also. I think that is what I just said.... Its going to be very difficult with temperatures at the surface above freezing to get anything to accumulate.... Factor in that this is the NAM & it will IMHO come even further north and warmer...I would still lean towards the cold rain scenario... GGEM means are showing a cold rain scenario.. GFS is showing a cold rain scenario ECM has been pretty much ranging from a 8-9 inch snowstorm (i believe one of its more recent 12 Z runs) to a warm rain event at 00z last night back to a more border line event at 12 Z today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Between Routes 80 and 78 it looks like about 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 can anyone post QPF totals for the major cities? PHL 1.75" ACY 1.5" NYC .2" estimated...NYC is probably the only place that sees all snow, however. Here's the 84 hour QPF map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Add the NOGAPS and Canadian that have consistently shown a snowstorm to the NAM camp. The Euro and GFS have been all over the place. I think that is what I just said.... Its going to be very difficult with temperatures at the surface above freezing to get anything to accumulate.... Factor in that this is the NAM & it will IMHO come even further north and warmer...I would still lean towards the cold rain scenario... GGEM means are showing a cold rain scenario.. GFS is showing a cold rain scenario ECM has been pretty much ranging from a 8-9 inch snowstorm (i believe one of its more recent 12 Z runs) to a warm rain event at 00z last night back to a more border line event at 12 Z today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM after 60hrs do even bother looking at it. The GFS, ECMWF and GEM are better for this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NYC metro wouldn't accumulate much on the NAM except for NJ since we only get a couple frames of .1" QPF, which is not going to cut it in late March. I'm sort of content that the NAM is staying south however, given that the GFS is so far north. Much better chance this gets too warm for us than misses to the south given the track of the H5 shortwave and the time of year. Indeed. I'm very happy to see the NAM where it is. No one wants to be in the bullseye on the NAM at 78 hours. Best place for this storm to be is south of us and that's exactly what we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Clown maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 PHL 1.75" ACY 1.5" NYC .2" estimated...NYC is probably the only place that sees all snow, however. Here's the 84 hour QPF map: NYC is .34" based off soundings and sims show a little more coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Doesnt disappear. Storm tracks south and the heavy precip stays from Sandy Hook south. But look at how all the precip dies off after 60 hours...it matches the disintegration of the H5 s/w but just seems a little abrupt: 60: 66: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hope you guys are excited about 35 and rain. I'll be in Texas basking in 80s/90s, so y'all have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 dt ** ALERT ALERT *** significant late season SNOWSTORM THREAT INCREASING for Northeast PA NW NJ southern interior NY... Hudson from White Plains to Albany and all iof INTERIOR New England...6 to 12" NYC BDR HVN GON PVS BOS 2 to 5" ... But Boston COULD get into the 6"+ range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hope you guys are excited about 35 and rain. I'll be in Texas basking in 80s/90s, so y'all have fun! i don't recall being jealous of anybody being in texas..... ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z gfs north and torchy, probably no snow this run the next threat emerging at day 6 has my eye, nice setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z gfs north and torchy, probably no snow this run the next threat emerging at day 6 has my eye, nice setup It probably gives some front-end snows to the NW suburbs at 60/66, but mostly rain. Very cold weather at Day 5: Amazing to think it was shorts and t-shorts Friday with windows wide open, and now we're talking about snow with the heating bill inching up as a late-season cold snap affects the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm liking the set-up for the next potential event on the GFS, which IMO may be more of a snow threat for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm liking the set-up for the next potential event on the GFS, which IMO may be more of a snow threat for us. It certainly has more potential than Wednesday's threat. Better cold air in place by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It probably gives some front-end snows to the NW suburbs at 60/66, but mostly rain. Very cold weather at Day 5: Amazing to think it was shorts and t-shorts Friday with windows wide open, and now we're talking about snow with the heating bill inching up as a late-season cold snap affects the NYC metro. yeah man, i got sunburned on friday playing basketball, now it feels freezing and we are talking snow. Crazy weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Good god do we get smoked this run, the NAO gets cranking good, locks in our 50/50..Shortwave steamrolls across the country and buries us is this the "HM" storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yea... GFS has been hinting at that day 8 storm for quite a while now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 00z gfs looks pretty good.... weaker and warmer with the thursday system and not as cold in the long run. Lets hope this pattern breaks and we get back in the 60s by April 1st (preferably before then but unfortunately the nao is still neg) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Good god do we get smoked this run, the NAO gets cranking good, locks in our 50/50..Shortwave steamrolls across the country and buries us is this the "HM" storm? I wouldn't say 'smoked'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm liking the set-up for the next potential event on the GFS, which IMO may be more of a snow threat for us. That 500mb pattern doesn't get much better...anytime of the year. I could see this one being an interior Mid Atlantic to New England snow and then another one that brings the snow even further south in early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That 500mb pattern doesn't get much better...anytime of the year. I could see this one being an interior Mid Atlantic to New England snow and then another one that brings the snow even further south in early April. HM -- agreed. Real impressive look at H5. West based -NAO retrograding towards Hudson Bay, 50-50 low, and even a decent PNA ridge spiking out west. Great confluence in sern canada to keep this s/w south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 HM -- agreed. Real impressive look at H5. West based -NAO retrograding towards Hudson Bay, 50-50 low, and even a decent PNA ridge spiking out west. Great confluence in sern canada to keep this s/w south. Not too dissimilar from the late dec blizzard set-up actually. Very favorable upper pattern, much moreso than w/ the mid week event. Still, all the pieces need to fall into place for a snowstorm to occur along I-95 at this time of year, but one can't help but be excited w/ that 500mb chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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