ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 How does euro look like GFS? Euro is south and much colder then GFS. Euro is closer to nam, Ggem, UKIE camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 How does euro look like GFS? Euro is south and much colder then GFS. Euro is closer to nam, Ggem, UKIE camp. He corrected himself..I thought he was implying that they were similar. But he was just noting they are the most trustworthy at this range, which would be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Wow, the DGEX has the entire storm on Wednesday/Thursday as snow, and probably the one on next Monday also. 18z DGEX shows us the NAM, within the area of reasonable outcomes, would have been a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 This event is going to be determined by intensity its obvious now especially NYC metro= the heavier periods will have mainly snow and when it lightens up it becomes more liquid BUT its going to have a difficult time accumulatiing especially on pavement with temps above freezing or very close most of the event....the more inland away form the metro accumulations will increase every mile inland and north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z Gefs is simlar to operational. North and warm. Perhaps a touch colder. But not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 how do we trust the gfs and euro if they are totally different then right now? dont we we use other models? lol that theory is only correct if its the gfs/euro showing the same thing vs the cmc/nam/ukie, then i would take the gfs/euro side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 well the gfs/euro are not in agreement atm with the track of the low and extent of the cold air, and the nogaps should be retired. Honestly if you don't think this has any shot at snow why are you wasting your time here with us snow freaks lol I am a snow freak too. I've always thought that even if you're a snow freak, you have to remain as objective as possible. When I think it's gonna snow, I get excited and honk. But when I don't, I'll give my opinion on that as well. Unfortunately it seems as if opinions on why it won't snow are frowned upon here, so maybe it is best if I stop posting about this event. On the other board on post on, most people are convinced (even mets) that there won't be accumulating snow near the coast. Way too borderline. From everything I'm looking at, it would even be borderline in the middle of winter for coastal areas. So I don't see any way in late March. But the folks here seem to like the potential better, and don't like hearing opinions that it won't snow. So I won't say another word until the event is over. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 how do we trust the gfs and euro if they are totally different then right now? dont we we use other models? lol that theory is only correct if its the gfs/euro showing the same thing vs the cmc/nam/ukie, then i would take the gfs/euro side none of these models can be fine tuned or considered to be accurate in this time range in a situation where a few miles here and there make a BIG difference in P -Type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If you are talking about the coast specifically, then I would agree with you. I am a snow freak too. I've always thought that even if you're a snow freak, you have to remain as objective as possible. When I think it's gonna snow, I get excited and honk. But when I don't, I'll give my opinion on that as well. Unfortunately it seems as if opinions on why it won't snow are frowned upon here, so maybe it is best if I stop posting about this event. On the other board on post on, most people are convinced (even mets) that there won't be accumulating snow near the coast. Way too borderline. From everything I'm looking at, it would even be borderline in the middle of winter for coastal areas. So I don't see any way in late March. But the folks here seem to like the potential better, and don't like hearing opinions that it won't snow. So I won't say another word until the event is over. Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 John, does the DGEX hit us with CCB snows or just WAA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 fwiw the 18z nam snowfall map has about 8 inches for phl......and accumlation coming for nyc.....i wish we could lock it in(lol) If we are going to have this below normal pattern and spring like warmth not in the picture...we might as well have snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I am a snow freak too. I've always thought that even if you're a snow freak, you have to remain as objective as possible. When I think it's gonna snow, I get excited and honk. But when I don't, I'll give my opinion on that as well. Unfortunately it seems as if opinions on why it won't snow are frowned upon here, so maybe it is best if I stop posting about this event. On the other board on post on, most people are convinced (even mets) that there won't be accumulating snow near the coast. Way too borderline. From everything I'm looking at, it would even be borderline in the middle of winter for coastal areas. So I don't see any way in late March. But the folks here seem to like the potential better, and don't like hearing opinions that it won't snow. So I won't say another word until the event is over. Take care. my point -- people here discuss the models, and disect them, because there is a potential to see some snow. So there is always people posting what models have. There is no problem with your opinion which is certainly valid, but you say the same thing every time you post in this particular forum. Everyone here is just tracking the storm and models and you keep interrupting with the same idea of "we need a colder airmass" yada yada quoting what steve D said today and whoever else. Whether its borderline or not im still gonna root for snow, and whatever happens happens. I already know all the negatives that you continuiously post on here. Boy if i hear that sun angle theory one more time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 He corrected himself..I thought he was implying that they were similar. But he was just noting they are the most trustworthy at this range, which would be correct. Yes. I probably worded that post poorly. Even though GFS and Euro are showing much different solutions, both would be very problematic for getting accumulating snow near the coast. Since those models are more trustworthy in this range than the others mentioned, I believe one of those solutions is far more likely than the snowier solutions some other models are showing. It pretty obvious by now that I don't like the potential that this event has, ha. So I won't say anything more for awhile. Northwest certainly can be a different story, but if folks near the coast believe that there's decent potential, they certainly are entitled to that opinion. We will see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 my point -- people here discuss the models, and disect them, because there is a potential to see some snow. So there is always people posting what models have. There is no problem with your opinion which is certainly valid, but you say the same thing every time you post in this particular forum. Everyone here is just tracking the storm and models and you keep interrupting with the same idea of "we need a colder airmass" yada yada quoting what steve D said today and whoever else. Whether its borderline or not im still gonna root for snow, and whatever happens happens. I already know all the negatives that you continuiously post on here. Boy if i hear that sun angle theory one more time lol I think I've said some other things today besides the sun angle theory, lol. Like how important dynamics are this late in the season, and discussion on some models. Like I made the point that 84 hour NAM had already shown a snow event for this month, which of course didn't even come close to working out. We've seen that so many times that I think long range NAM shouldn't even be considered. It's THAT poor in long range. Much better inside 48 hours. I'll try to post much less though, if people think I'm sounding like a broken record. I truly am not trying to irritate people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think I've said some other things today besides the sun angle theory, lol. Like how important dynamics are this late in the season, and discussion on some models. Like I made the point that 84 hour NAM had already shown a snow event for this month, which of course didn't even come close to working out. We've seen that so many times that I think long range NAM shouldn't even be considered. It's THAT poor in long range. Much better inside 48 hours. I'll try to post much less though, if people think I'm sounding like a broken record. I truly am not trying to irritate people. agreed, the nam is awful in its long range. Im not a posting nazi, im just saying you may have been repeating yourself a bit, and in the end you will probably end up being right. But i stil have hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think I've said some other things today besides the sun angle theory, lol. Like how important dynamics are this late in the season, and discussion on some models. Like I made the point that 84 hour NAM had already shown a snow event for this month, which of course didn't even come close to working out. We've seen that so many times that I think long range NAM shouldn't even be considered. It's THAT poor in long range. Much better inside 48 hours. I'll try to post much less though, if people think I'm sounding like a broken record. I truly am not trying to irritate people. Yeah, I agree that there may be a problem with dynamics: the GFS shows very strung-out 500mb vorticity with the 850mb low tracking north of NYC, never a good sign for snow. H5: H85: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think I've said some other things today besides the sun angle theory, lol. Like how important dynamics are this late in the season, and discussion on some models. Like I made the point that 84 hour NAM had already shown a snow event for this month, which of course didn't even come close to working out. We've seen that so many times that I think long range NAM shouldn't even be considered. It's THAT poor in long range. Much better inside 48 hours. I'll try to post much less though, if people think I'm sounding like a broken record. I truly am not trying to irritate people. Euro has been just as erratic. It had many snow storms shown inside of 96 hours over the past 40 days. Using absolutes is what people don't like. Like saying the coast will not get snow. That's an absolute statement. Most likely, is the right term. As far as I'm concerned, give us euro, nam, UKIE and especially Ggem and JMA track and even the coast will receive some accumulating snow. Give us Ggem, nam or JMA track and intensity and it can be a significant storm. All options are on the table. Climatology says the coast will struggle to accumulate but saying that there is no chance, is what's annoying everyone here. Making definitive statements in weather, is moronic, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 is this storm similar to the late feb snowstorm this year? I remember the overrunning began in the upper Midwest and steamrolled over to our area. With strong confluence to the north forcing the weak low south of us. Repeat performance on the way? (w/o the 2nd round that storm had of course) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Through 57 hours the NAM is faster..and warmer compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 60 hours its snowing in Eastern PA..Philly..up to NJ/NYC. Surface low is very far west though, so it better transfer soon or else the mid level waa will take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Total wreck at 66 hours. The upper levels are disjointed..but the initial WAA brings an advisory event to Philly and a bit north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Shortwave de-amplifying east at 72 hours. The H85 low is finally organizing..this run may still deliver as the low redevelops off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 998 off Ocean City, MD at 75 hours..snow up to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That is a very big hit for Allentown, PA area and parts of Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 That is a very big hit for Allentown, PA area and parts of Jersey. Not really when you look at the surface.... at 66 hrs the surface freezing line is up on the NY PA borderline... at 72 hrs it drops back down to about East Central PA... I would be leaning more towards a cold rain at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 clown map...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Shortwave de-amplifying east at 72 hours. The H85 low is finally organizing..this run may still deliver as the low redevelops off the coast. I don't like how the NAM is handling the storm: it seems to deamplify the shortwave too much after 66 hours...there's heavy snow across most of PA at 60 and then it just disappears at 66 and beyond. Do you think this banding would really peter out that fast in an overrunning situation? We'd be much better off if we got into a CCB with precip wrapping around to the NW side of the low. That would definitely help with the BL warmth that could be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not really when you look at the surface.... at 66 hrs the surface freezing line is up on the NY PA borderline... at 72 hrs it drops back down to about East Central PA... I would be leaning more towards a cold rain at this point.... No way. Surface is 33-35. 850's and other levels all support snow. NE PA and just south get buried this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I don't like how the NAM is handling the storm: it seems to deamplify the shortwave too much after 66 hours...there's heavy snow across most of PA at 60 and then it just disappears at 66 and beyond. Do you think this banding would really peter out that fast in an overrunning situation? We'd be much better off if we got into a CCB with precip wrapping around to the NW side of the low. That would definitely help with the BL warmth that could be an issue. Doesnt disappear. Storm tracks south and the heavy precip stays from Sandy Hook south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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