Dsnowx53 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The GFS being warm is a track issue, not a "lack of cold air" issue, per-se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 And I've read otherwise from many excellent meteorologists. I guess it's a matter of opinion. I understand fully and have my opinion. Don't know why it seems to irritate some here. Isn't this a weather forum for discussion? All opinions should be welcome. Sure, all opinions are welcome, but he's just pointing out that your opinion is wrong (with excellent factual backing). No one's irritated, it's just that pretty much everyone here disagrees with the opinion you've presented. The higher sun angle at this time of year makes it more difficult for snow to stick during the daylight hours, that is a fact. But all else being equal, hvy precipitation rates can easily overcome solar insolation, even in early to mid spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 are all these great mets on another board that you quote? You have repeated the same thing over and over to point I want to smash my key board over my head. Even when someone explains why your wrong you still continue to say the same thing Why get like that? I don't understand why you have to get so worked up over something so minor. This is a discussion board dude. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 My link ^^ Great read just out from meteorologist Steve DiMartino. This is a guy that absolulutely NAILED this winter. He called the epic snowy pattern in early winter, and then called the end of winter. Hard to find a met that did as well as he did this winter. It's long but read it. He gives very strong meteorological reasoning on why this just isn't going to happen. And this is a guy that has been accused of having a snow bias, too. Steve, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nam coming in warm at surface thru hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The deeper we head into the spring season, the more difficult it becomes to get the layer between 850mb and the surface to be isothermal. Precipitation rates need to increase in tandem with the rising sun angle as we head through March and April (and it can be done). No doubt about that. If you were talking a sunny day, totally different story. An 850mb temp of 0c in early January versus that same 850 temp in mid July yields a completely different surface temp, obviously due to sun angle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nam coming in warm at surface thru hour 72. Quite a bit further south/colder than 12z, which isn't totally unexpected given its the 18z run. Basically screws CNJ northward of any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Quite a bit further south/colder than 12z, which isn't totally unexpected given its the 18z run. Basically screws CNJ northward of any precip. It Amps up hours 78-84 and also gets cold. Would be a very nice hit, it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yup. Sims at 84 are very nice. NAM, verbatim would be sweet for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 A small accumulating event would be ideal. + 1 agree, too much disecting going on, and honestly, isotherm is making the most sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yup. Sims at 84 are very nice. NAM, verbatim would be sweet for our area. Yeah it turns the corner at 84 and is a perfect hit. Too bad it's not the NAM at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Joe D'Aleo says the snowcover is going to move south again and reach the Big Cities the next week http://www.weatherbell.com/jd/?category_name=blog_home_page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z GFS is MUCH colder, indicates the possibility of 1-4 inches throughout Northern New Jersey tomorrow morning prior to changing to rain, with the higher accumulations in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z GFS shows at least like 4 inches of snow in Northern NJ by 66 hrs. It warms it up and changes it to rain after this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Ugly GFS run for anyone who wants snow. Very warm and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Explosive development at 192 hrs with heavy rain changing to snow. Takes a sub 996mb low at 192hrs over the DelMarva to east of the Benchmark as a sub 980mb at 204 hrs. Over 1 inch of precip, about 75% rain. Definitely something to watch here. Would be a big hit for North central and north east PA and SE NY, just north of the NJ border. It actually has another one to watch at 300 hrs. also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Meanwhile the NOGAPS which has been advertising all snow for many runs now for Northern New Jersey has actually trended even COLDER! Ugly GFS run for anyone who wants snow. Very warm and mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Meanwhile the NOGAPS which has been advertising all snow for many runs now for Northern New Jersey has actually trended even COLDER! It appears GFS is the northern and warm outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Explosive development at 192 hrs with heavy rain changing to snow. Takes a sub 996mb low at 192hrs over the DelMarva to east of the Benchmark as a sub 980mb at 204 hrs. Over 1 inch of precip, about 75% rain. Definitely something to watch here. Would be a big hit for North central and north east PA and SE NY, just north of the NJ border. It actually has another one to watch at 300 hrs. also. In my opinion this period has more potential simply because the pattern at H5 is supportive of a snow event. If we can establish a large block and neg nao, it is possible we get one more snowstorm. Things need to align properly for this to work out, but worth keeping an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Good sign from the NAM at 84hrs with cold air sinking southward into a juicy low. Nam is almost always too amplified and north in its long range so the early signs are good, GFS is a mess and the EURO is probably not the best model to use for marginal events..just wait it out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It appears GFS is the northern and warm outlier at this point. Are the 18z GEFS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'd much rather have GFS and Euro on our side than NOGAPS and long range NAM. NOGAPS is a tropical model, and the NAM is terrible in long range. NAM is best inside 48 hours. GFS/Euro is the way to go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'd much rather have GFS and Euro on our side than NOGAPS and long range NAM. NOGAPS is a tropical model, and the NAM is terrible in long range. NAM is best inside 48 hours. GFS/Euro is the way to go here. The problem with the Euro is the precipitation is pretty light because the vort gets sheared out, so we wouldn't see much accumulation, especially in NYC 5 Boroughs. The problem with this storm is that the models are trending away from the coastal developing a CCB into a solely WAA overrunning event, which will be tricky at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This is a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The problem with the Euro is the precipitation is pretty light because the vort gets sheared out, so we wouldn't see much accumulation, especially in NYC 5 Boroughs. The problem with this storm is that the models are trending away from the coastal developing a CCB into a solely WAA overrunning event, which will be tricky at this stage of the game. I agree ... we would definitely want the dynamics from a strengthening coastal to get snow near the coast this time of year. Areas near the coast won't get accumulating snow without decent dynamics, IMO. WWA overrunning won't cut it with the temps expected. And NOGAPS shouldn't be taken too seriously since it's a tropical model that isn't meant for these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z DGEX shows us the NAM, within the area of reasonable outcomes, would have been a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 great h500 signature for a block.... gotta admit there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'd much rather have GFS and Euro on our side than NOGAPS and long range NAM. NOGAPS is a tropical model, and the NAM is terrible in long range. NAM is best inside 48 hours. GFS/Euro is the way to go here. well the gfs/euro are not in agreement atm with the track of the low and extent of the cold air, and the nogaps should be retired. Honestly if you don't think this has any shot at snow why are you wasting your time here with us snow freaks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'd much rather have GFS and Euro on our side than NOGAPS and long range NAM. NOGAPS is a tropical model, and the NAM is terrible in long range. NAM is best inside 48 hours. GFS/Euro is the way to go here. The Euro looks absolutely nothing like the GFS, so I am not totally sure what you're driving at here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The Euro looks absolutely nothing like the GFS, so I am not totally sure what you're driving at here. I know that. I'm just making the point that those are models you'd rely on more than NOGAPS and long range NAM. Of course we know how inconsistent models are, so it's not surprising seeing GFS and NAM far apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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