3/23 - 3/24 Winter Storm

[Sundog]

The 12z NOGAPS still shows all of Northern NJ below freezing at 850 for the entire storm on Wednesday/Thursday.

What's your definition of northern NJ and would the location of that delineation of frozen and liquid apply to areas east of there as well?

[Edge Weather]

The 12z Canadian has stayed south and appears to crush Northern NJ.

[Edge Weather]

I usually use Rt. 80 North as Northern NJ. The freezing area seems to head north and east of there, a little north of NYC.

What's your definition of northern NJ and would the location of that delineation of frozen and liquid apply to areas east of there as well?

[MJO812]

12z GGEM still has all snow for the NYC area.

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

[Isotherm]

A little worrisome that the Euro and GFS have gone north, as I consider them to be superior to the NAM/NOGAPS/GGEM at this range. If the NAM holds the colder solution over the next 24-48 hours, then that's a much different story. I can't see the sfc low track being any further north than depicted on the 12Z GFS, considering the strong HP immediately to our N, and a relatively weak wave itself.

However, it is late march, and climo favors interior, NW of the city and SNE, so let's hope the GFS and Euro come southward a bit. Either way, winter's back in full force over the next few weeks, with maybe more accumulating snow chances next week.

[earthlight]

[earthlight]

GGEM Visual

[Allsnow]

A little worrisome that the Euro and GFS have gone north, as I consider them to be superior to the NAM/NOGAPS/GGEM at this range. If the NAM holds the colder solution over the next 24-48 hours, then that's a much different story. I can't see the sfc low track being any further north than depicted on the 12Z GFS, considering the strong HP immediately to our N, and a relatively weak wave itself.

However, it is late march, and climo favors interior, NW of the city and SNE, so let's hope the GFS and Euro come southward a bit. Either way, winter's back in full force over the next few weeks, with maybe more accumulating snow chances next week.

Yeah the 12z gfs is a beautiful hit for sne...sv snow maps have them 4-8.....would not shock me if we miss out...seems since feb 2nd its been to my north or south...oh well....

[Isotherm]

Yeah the 12z gfs is a beautiful hit for sne...sv snow maps have them 4-8.....would not shock me if we miss out...seems since feb 2nd its been to my north or south...oh well....

Agree. Although I'd like to get another accum snow event (who wouldn't), it's not the end of the world. At this time of year, any accum snow is a bonus.

[Allsnow]

Agree. Although I'd like to get another accum snow event (who wouldn't), it's not the end of the world. At this time of year, any accum snow is a bonus.

Might be a brief period of snow/sleet before we go to rain tommorrow morning......

[scooter13]

Agree. Although I'd like to get another accum snow event (who wouldn't), it's not the end of the world. At this time of year, any accum snow is a bonus.

Me. The vernal equinox is today, its time for warm, spring like weather. The vernal equinox is one of the best days in the year imo. Bring on the 60s!

[Allsnow]

Hr 72 on the 12z euro 850 line south of phl....but prob mid level problems ttn south...nyc looks to be snow at this point.

[ag3]

Euro thru Wednesday 18z, has surface temps of 34-36, with 850's of -4.

Little precip so far.

[ag3]

Wednesday 2pm-8pm,

.23" of Qpf with surface of 34-35 and 850s below.

Appears to be snow.

[ag3]

Another .12" of Qpf as snow Wednsday 8pm- Thursday 2am.

[ag3]

That's pretty much it.

Dry run.

Less then .50" Qpf.

With about .35" of it snow.

Little accumulations, IMO.

[nzucker]

Sounds like the ECM would be good for 2-4" up here, I'd take it and run at this point since this set-up isn't nearly as favorable as the one emerging at Day 7-8 when the 50/50 low is better anchored and colder air has entered the region behind this storm system.

It's unfortunate that the models have sped up the event so much of it falls during the daylight hours Wednesday, which will limit accumulations on paved surfaces with 2m temps around 34-35F.

[Isotherm]

Sounds like the ECM would be good for 2-4" up here, I'd take it and run at this point since this set-up isn't nearly as favorable as the one emerging at Day 7-8 when the 50/50 low is better anchored and colder air has entered the region behind this storm system.

It's unfortunate that the models have sped up the event so much of it falls during the daylight hours Wednesday, which will limit accumulations on paved surfaces with 2m temps around 34-35F.

Yeah agree, that D 7-8 potential is beginning to look like it has a more favorable pattern with it. Pacific will be improving over the next 7-10 days as the NAO dips negative. A lot of bust potential w/ the D3-4 overrunning wave this week. Not much room for movement in track, and it may be the type of storm where most are disappointed.

[nzucker]

Yeah agree, that D 7-8 potential is beginning to look like it has a more favorable pattern with it. Pacific will be improving over the next 7-10 days as the NAO dips negative. A lot of bust potential w/ the D3-4 overrunning wave this week. Not much room for movement in track, and it may be the type of storm where most are disappointed.

Will (ORHwxman) has been saying the same in the SNE thread; the storm could either come too far north and everyone ends up mixing with sleet and rain, or it could be shredded to the south as the 12z ECM shows and not have a lot of decent banding associated with it. The 12z ECM separates the system into two areas of vorticity so you don't get consolidated heavy precipitation, which could be deadly with warm surface temperatures during a late-March afternoon. There will probably be some areas of decent snow but unless the coastal winds up, not that many.

I really like the pattern at Day 7 on the 12z GFS, very nice -NAO bleeding westward with some temporary ridging over MT/ID and a vigorous shortwave coming into the picture:

We'd like to see the ridging a little weaker so that it doesn't become a New England snowstorm as the GFS shows verbatim, but it's certainly interesting as we're starting with -10C 850s. Storm after that around 4/1 could also hold potential as the blocking pattern continues.

[winterwx21]

A little worrisome that the Euro and GFS have gone north, as I consider them to be superior to the NAM/NOGAPS/GGEM at this range. If the NAM holds the colder solution over the next 24-48 hours, then that's a much different story. I can't see the sfc low track being any further north than depicted on the 12Z GFS, considering the strong HP immediately to our N, and a relatively weak wave itself.

However, it is late march, and climo favors interior, NW of the city and SNE, so let's hope the GFS and Euro come southward a bit. Either way, winter's back in full force over the next few weeks, with maybe more accumulating snow chances next week.

I would definitely throw out the long range NAM at this point. Remember, thr 84 hour NAM also showed snow threats for the 15th and 20th of this month. We know how that worked out. NAM is not to be used on longer range. GFS and Euro definitely make a lot more sense at this point.

I know I've made this point before, but we have to remember that we need much colder 850mb temps in late March than we need during the middle of winter. You want 850mb temps around -6 or -7C to get accumulating snow near the coast this late in the season. We simply won't have that Wednesday into Thursday. It has certainly happened many times before and it'll happen many times again, but it won't be happening for this event. We don't have cold enough air this time.

I can't tell you how much I'd like to see some late season snow. My allergies kicked in yesterday and are killing me. The idea of wet snow coating the trees to knock down the pollen is wonderful. But unfortunately, the setup just isn't there for this system Wednesday into Thursday. Rain with a little wet snow mixed in. You'll have to go way northwest of the city to have any shot at a little accumulation with this one.

[Edge Weather]

The Euro spits out .54 as all snow at Andover, Sussex County. Surface does start out at +1.4 mid-day on Wednesday, so that would hold down on accumulations, but it looks to be all wet snow. Also, I got to see the NOGAPS and Canadian in higher resolution on Wright-Weather and they both look to crush areas from Rt. 78 north with 6-10 inches of snow. They have been very consistent with a more southern track. Maybe the GFS and Euro went a little too far north.

[Edge Weather]

So, if surface temperatures are below freezing and the 850 level is below freezing, then what happens? The Euro has at least half the storm with those conditions in NW NJ and the NOGAPS and Canadian have almost all the storm in NW NJ with those conditions.

I would definitely throw out the long range NAM at this point. Remember, thr 84 hour NAM also showed snow threats for the 15th and 20th of this month. We know how that worked out. NAM is not to be used on longer range. GFS and Euro definitely make a lot more sense at this point.

I know I've made this point before, but we have to remember that we need much colder 850mb temps in late March than we need during the middle of winter. You want 850mb temps around -6 or -7C to get accumulating snow near the coast this late in the season. We simply won't have that Wednesday into Thursday. It has certainly happened many times before and it'll happen many times again, but it won't be happening for this event. We don't have cold enough air this time.

I can't tell you how much I'd like to see some late season snow. My allergies kicked in yesterday and are killing me. The idea of wet snow coating the trees to knock down the pollen is wonderful. But unfortunately, the setup just isn't there for this system Wednesday into Thursday. Rain with a little wet snow mixed in. You'll have to go way northwest of the city to have any shot at a little accumulation with this one.

[Allsnow]

Mt holly talks of possible accumulating snow wed afternoon into wed nite for north central jersey and north jersey

[winterwx21]

So, if surface temperatures are below freezing and the 850 level is below freezing, then what happens? The Euro has at least half the storm with those conditions in NW NJ and the NOGAPS and Canadian have almost all the storm in NW NJ with those conditions.

NW Jersey certainly can see some accumulation. I'm talking central Jersey to NYC to LI ... those areas won't see any accumulation from this system.

[RU848789]

I would definitely throw out the long range NAM at this point. Remember, thr 84 hour NAM also showed snow threats for the 15th and 20th of this month. We know how that worked out. NAM is not to be used on longer range. GFS and Euro definitely make a lot more sense at this point.

I know I've made this point before, but we have to remember that we need much colder 850mb temps in late March than we need during the middle of winter. You want 850mb temps around -6 or -7C to get accumulating snow near the coast this late in the season. We simply won't have that Wednesday into Thursday. It has certainly happened many times before and it'll happen many times again, but it won't be happening for this event. We don't have cold enough air this time.

I can't tell you how much I'd like to see some late season snow. My allergies kicked in yesterday and are killing me. The idea of wet snow coating the trees to knock down the pollen is wonderful. But unfortunately, the setup just isn't there for this system Wednesday into Thursday. Rain with a little wet snow mixed in. You'll have to go way northwest of the city to have any shot at a little accumulation with this one.

Sorry, the laws of thermodynamics, physical chemistry, kinetics and heat/mass transfer don't know whether it's March, January or June. The ONLY thing that changes in spring vis-a-vis snowfall is the sun angle, which only affects the melting rate of snow that falls during daylight hours. The same snow growth region temperatures, vertical mixing rates to effect desired supersaturation kinetics for snow growth, and vapor deposition processes apply any time of year and whether or not snow that crystallizes melts on its way down still follows the same kinetic rate expresssions at 850 mb (and throughout the entire column down to the ground) any time of the year. So, the same setup in January and March will produce the exact same amount of falling snow. As I said above, then, the only variable in March that affects accumulating snow rate is the sun angle, which absolutely increases the melting rate, during daylight hours (duh) relative to earlier in the winter. But if the snow is falling during daylight hours with enough intensity the snowfall rate will exceed the melting rate and, voila, accumulation will result - less than would occur in January for the exact same conditions, but accumulating snow, nonetheless. What part about that don't you understand (since you keep harping on the subject)?

[Allsnow]

Sorry, the laws of thermodynamics, physical chemistry, kinetics and heat/yumass transfer don't know whether it's March, January or June. The ONLY thing that changes in spring vis-a-vis snowfall is the sun angle, which only affects the melting rate of snow that falls during daylight hours. The same snow growth region temperatures, vertical mixing rates to effect desired supersaturation kinetics for snow growth, and vapor deposition processes apply any time of year and whether or not snow that crystallizes melts on its way down still follows the same kinetic rate expresssions at 850 mb (and throughout the entire column down to the ground) any time of the year. So, the same setup in January and March will produce the exact same amount of falling snow. As I said above, then, the only variable in March that affects accumulating snow rate is the sun angle, which absolutely increases the melting rate, during daylight hours (duh) relative to earlier in the winter. But if the snow is falling during daylight hours with enough intensity the snowfall rate will exceed the melting rate and, voila, accumulation will result - less than would occur in January for the exact same conditions, but accumulating snow, nonetheless. What part about that don't you understand (since you keep harping on the subject)?

thankyou

[Manny]

A small accumulating event would be ideal.

[winterwx21]

Sorry, the laws of thermodynamics, physical chemistry, kinetics and heat/mass transfer don't know whether it's March, January or June. The ONLY thing that changes in spring vis-a-vis snowfall is the sun angle, which only affects the melting rate of snow that falls during daylight hours. The same snow growth region temperatures, vertical mixing rates to effect desired supersaturation kinetics for snow growth, and vapor deposition processes apply any time of year and whether or not snow that crystallizes melts on its way down still follows the same kinetic rate expresssions at 850 mb (and throughout the entire column down to the ground) any time of the year. So, the same setup in January and March will produce the exact same amount of falling snow. As I said above, then, the only variable in March that affects accumulating snow rate is the sun angle, which absolutely increases the melting rate, during daylight hours (duh) relative to earlier in the winter. But if the snow is falling during daylight hours with enough intensity the snowfall rate will exceed the melting rate and, voila, accumulation will result - less than would occur in January for the exact same conditions, but accumulating snow, nonetheless. What part about that don't you understand (since you keep harping on the subject)?

And I've read otherwise from many excellent meteorologists. I guess it's a matter of opinion. I understand fully and have my opinion. Don't know why it seems to irritate some here. Isn't this a weather forum for discussion? All opinions should be welcome.

[Allsnow]

And I've read otherwise from many excellent meteorologists. I guess it's a matter of opinion. I understand fully and have my opinion. Don't know why it seems to irritate some here. Isn't this a weather forum for discussion? All opinions should be welcome.

are all these great mets on another board that you quote? You have repeated the same thing over and over to point I want to smash my key board over my head. Even when someone explains why your wrong you still continue to say the same thing

[winterwx21]

My link

^^ Great read just out from meteorologist Steve DiMartino. This is a guy that absolulutely NAILED this winter. He called the epic snowy pattern in early winter, and then called the end of winter. Hard to find a met that did as well as he did this winter. It's long but read it. He gives very strong meteorological reasoning on why this just isn't going to happen. And this is a guy that has been accused of having a snow bias, too.