atownwxwatcher Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Surface temps at 114 might be too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 90 is a decent frame for NNJ/E PA but then the event becomes too marginal as the GFS is farther north with the mid-level features and doesn't amplify the coastal: The flow is still a bit flat so we'll see if this feature can cut off and form a stronger coastal like the 983mb low on the 12z ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This is a beautiful set-up for late-season snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This is a beautiful set-up for late-season snows. The 3/28 storm looks much colder with a better positioned 50/50 low even though it's a few days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I place my bets on the ECMWF, looking at the GEM and ECMWF I think the GFS is way too weak and way to low QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I think you'll like the 00Z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I think you'll like the 00Z GGEM. Here's 120: Original overrunning at 108: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The GEM is beautiful. 987 off the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 It now appears likely that we will see flakes fly but the models will have to converge on the intensity idea to be convincing of significant accumulations. This morning, we have moved a little in that direction. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Its been a while but, euro is rollin great to see the ggem amplified like the 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html and today is the first day of spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Can't believe I am staying up for the Euro on 3/20 LOLZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Can't believe I am staying up for the Euro on 3/20 LOLZ. i prefer the hour earlier model runs but thats just me lol maybe its because im not used to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 heh, I'll sign up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 00Z ECMWF is warmer and further north than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 00Z ECMWF is warmer and further north than 12Z. Does NYC or its suburbs see any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Does NYC or its suburbs see any snow? It probably will on the front-end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Does NYC or its suburbs see any snow? Front end probably before it goes over to rain..850's are warm. The surface low is way north of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 yeah, a big thumbsdown on the euro tonight, north and warm. 4 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Can't believe I am staying up for the Euro on 3/20 LOLZ. should have gone to bed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Front end probably before it goes over to rain..850's are warm. The surface low is way north of 12z. Not even front end. Surface is 40 degrees when 850's are below before the 850's go way above as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The 0z/24 Euro Ensembles where further north and warmer as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 NAM looks good thru 72. Even surface is plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nam looks good through 84 hrs. Even has snow in NYC at that point with only the surface above freezing at +.6. To me it looks a lot like the 0z Canadian, which looks a lot like the 12z Euro from yesterday. Both of which clobbered Northern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nam looks good through 84 hrs. Even has snow in NYC at that point with only the surface above freezing at +.6. snow all the way down to south jersey at 84 - intensity and time of day/night going to determine how much we get...... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamptype084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 What is interesting is how the Canadian and NOGAPS still keep this system further south and snow for us, even the 6z NOGAPS keeps Northern New Jersey all snow. Of course these are the two worst models, but who knows, maybe the GFS and ECMWF went too far north? snow all the way down to south jersey at 84 - intensity and time of day/night going to determine how much we get...... http://raleighwx.ame...namptype084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 What is interesting is how the Canadian and NOGAPS still keep this system further south and snow for us, even the 6z NOGAPS keeps Northern New Jersey all snow. Of course these are the two worst models, but who knows, maybe the GFS and ECMWF went too far north? 12Z Nam also agrees with the Canadian and NOGAPS on the list of further south - MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1110 AM EDT SUN MAR 20 2011 VALID MAR 20/1200 UTC THRU MAR 24/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM EVALUATION ...ERN PAC/WEST COAST TROF REACHING THE PLAINS BY TUE... THE NAM LEANS SLIGHTLY TO THE SLOWER/MORE AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AS THE MID LVL TROF PROGRESSES THRU THE WRN STATES. THEN THE NAM IS IN THE SLOWER AND/OR SRN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD WITH THE MID LVL/SFC SYSTEMS FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE ERN CONUS. THE NAM HAS DISPLAYED ONLY MINOR DETAIL DIFFS OVER THE PAST 24 HRS OF RUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 On Storm Vista's GFS model depiction it shows next Monday's storm as mainly snow in Northern NJ, unlike it shows on Wright-Weather or the NOAA site. Storm Vista's site shows the temperatures crashing in Northern NJ, at both 850 and surface, to below freezing as that heavy precipitation moves in, indicating that areas in Northern NJ and just north of NYC could get a foot of snow or more. Interesting.At 192 hrs it shows many areas in Northern New Jersey below freezing at both the surface and 850, corresponding directly with the influx of heavy precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The 12z NOGAPS still shows all of Northern NJ below freezing at 850 for the entire storm on Wednesday/Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 On Storm Vista's GFS model depiction it shows next Monday's storm as mainly snow in Northern NJ, unlike it shows on Wright-Weather or the NOAA site. Storm Vista's site shows the temperatures crashing in Northern NJ, at both 850 and surface, to below freezing as that heavy precipitation moves in, indicating that areas in Northern NJ and just north of NYC could get a foot of snow or more. Interesting. This might be the main attraction this month and has potential to be a MECS or a HECS (for this time of the year ) Wxoutlooks after giving up is honking big time now - potential exists for closing in on the 95/96 snowfall record when all is said and done http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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