isnice Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 40/27 here. Cold rain, here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 These late-season events rely heavily on dynamic cooling. The NAM, a mesoscale model, seemed to try to over-do the amount of upward motion, and thus lead to higher UVVs and stronger dynamics...resulting in more QPF as snow. Now that we've gotten closer to the event, the NAM is coming to its senses in that the dynamics will not be nearly as strong as originally forecast, thus making for potentially poor snow growth and less dynamic cooling. The April 2003 event was a lot more dynamic, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Well I was thinking of me since the 3" line basically bisects my house on your drawing...I'm just north of the NJ/NY border looking across the Hudson. I'd be a little more hesitant to bet on Central Park though I think they will get it. Agree, John, that the NAM obviously trended warmer as opposed to its earlier runs, but we all knew those were BS anyway. It's basically come into a nice consensus with the ECM/SREF etc...What I still don't understand is how the GFS can be so much warmer with the track so similar. Hmm, that's a tough bet, since I'm thinking around 3-4" for your area. But I'd be willing to take the under on 3.5" for your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Lightly snowing in Wayne right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Some helpful maps to track for the next few hours into tomorrow: Surface wetbulb temperature: Critical Thicknesses: Near-Freezing Surface Temperatures: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There could very well be a Moderate Risk event over the Ohio Valley tomorrow---if that is the case, I can't remember living through an event like that in which we got snow. Southern New England, sure...but not here. I guess there's a first time for everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Agree, John, that the NAM obviously trended warmer as opposed to its earlier runs, but we all knew those were BS anyway. Shh..don't tell Noreaster85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 temp down to 35.8 with light snow. need to hit the 33 mark to start sticking to grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 That dew point is fairly high, and your wetbulb is around 35-36 right now, Need those numbers to drop at least a couple degrees to support accumulating snow. I don't know if that's the exact right temp/dewpoint for my house, comes from Wunderground downtown and suspect it is a bit high. Official station at HPN is reporting a dewpoint of 25F and that's like 15 minutes from here with same elevation. Central Park is in the 20s with their Td. Also, my observations usually agree with those guys in NNJ...when it starts as snow there it almost always does here too. We got accumulating snow the other day starting at 39/31 so don't see why we wouldn't now as that was during the day, from around 7-10am. When the consensus of models show close to 1" QPF as mostly snow and 30dbz echoes are being reported as snow moving towards the area, I can relax a bit. I think the negativity for NYC is generally unwarranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Hmm, that's a tough bet, since I'm thinking around 3-4" for your area. But I'd be willing to take the under on 3.5" for your house. We are on. Six pack at the conference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Are you guys doing an obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Are you guys doing an obs thread? We should....has been started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We are on. Six pack at the conference? Not sure if I'll be able to make the conference, but yeah sure the bet's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here in New Brunswick the 2" soil temperatures for bare and sod-covered ground is 47F and 48F respectively. I don't know how much the temperature varies from the surface down to 2" but that isn't looking too good for snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Tom be careful. Nate is very good at winning bets.. He won one when Chuck said Nino for 2010-2011.... right Nate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Tom be careful. Nate is very good at winning bets.. He won one when Chuck said Nino for 2010-2011.... right Nate? Yeah I am owed some beers for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here in New Brunswick the 2" soil temperatures for bare and sod-covered ground is 47F and 48F respectively. I don't know how much the temperature varies from the surface down to 2" but that isn't looking too good for snow accumulation. Where do you get that info? I wonder what it is in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 DT's last call is up on FB and soon on his webpage, presumably, which has his first call, which is very similar. Has <1" south of about New Hope over to New Brunswick, with me being barely in his 1-2" range (NYC also). Has big snows in the Catskills and other interior locations (8-12"). Not looking great for Central Jersey - would love to at least get enough to whiten the trees and ground. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Go here dudes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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