NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 Maybe NOT a clown map anymore ? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE030.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton has the point and click forecast for NYC as all rain. Are they using some special model and/or tool that no one else knows about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton has the point and click forecast for NYC as all rain. Are they using some special model and/or tool than no one else knows about? They're using the NEG NAO guidance for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Maybe NOT a clown map anymore ? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/00znamsnow_NE030.gif 4" into NYC, northern queens, Bronx and northern Brooklyn. And that's not including thru 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The NAM continues to look somewhat disorganized (to be fair, all guidance does for the most part for this storm). The redeveloping coastal never turns the corner as the mid and upper level waves dampen out. This allows the mid-levels to stay cool, but also probably prevents heavy precipitation from developing over land. And it is usually the precipitation intensity that allows lower elevations to accumulate rapidly in these situations. Elevated locations N&W of the City look pretty good. But I'm not especially enthusiastic about heavy snow accumulations below 400ft with light to moderate precip spread out over 24 hours. I think we're probably looking at a max of 6-10" in isolated spots above 1000ft down to 1-3" near sea level. Slushy accumulations on cars/trees/grass in the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton has the point and click forecast for NYC as all rain. Are they using some special model and/or tool that no one else knows about? They're going against all 2011 computer guidance and using climo. Very risky. This is an overwelming consensus at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton has the point and click forecast for NYC as all rain. Are they using some special model and/or tool that no one else knows about? Yeah what is going on? Can a met explain this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 At this time of year, without real intensity, it's awfully hard to get snow to accumulate and with this type of the storm, it would be very difficult for coastal sections especially during the daylight hours. But during the night time hours Wednesday into very early Thursday, some snow will probably accumulate, maybe an inch to a few inches in the city and over Long Island with much higher amounts likely to the n and w and over higher elevations. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yea with most model guidance in place, this seems to be a WWA type event bordering on Warning for the city. 3-5" seems very plausible, and the pattern is very conducive for this type of event, even though it is late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 At this time of year, without real intensity, it's awfully hard to get snow to accumulate and with this type of the storm, it would be very difficult for coastal sections especially during the daylight hours. But during the night time hours Wednesday into very early Thursday, some snow will probably accumulate, maybe an inch to a few inches in the city and over Long Island with much higher amounts likely to the n and w and over higher elevations. WX/PT The NAM does show .25" QPF between 18-24 hours and ~.35" QPF between 24-30, so that's not exactly flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 At this time of year, without real intensity, it's awfully hard to get snow to accumulate and with this type of the storm, it would be very difficult for coastal sections especially during the daylight hours. But during the night time hours Wednesday into very early Thursday, some snow will probably accumulate, maybe an inch to a few inches in the city and over Long Island with much higher amounts likely to the n and w and over higher elevations. WX/PT Thanks PT. Upton is calling for almost all rain for city. That's just plain weird and wrong, IMO. Different to say snow not accumulating and just plain rain. Something is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah what is going on? Can a met explain this? I can see the City getting a few inches with mostly snow melting as it hits the ground, but all Ran? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 They're using the NEG NAO guidance for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 They keep trending warmer even though models are trending colder. KNYC is at 43/27 with a stiff north wind. Yea, I just ran 6 miles in it along the east river. This weather sux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Upton has the point and click forecast for NYC as all rain. Are they using some special model and/or tool that no one else knows about? MOS has surface temps in the mid and upper 30s throughout with ptype primarily rain with snow mixing in occasionally. I think this is slightly too warm and I expect more, possibly mostly, wet snow. But I still have serious doubts that the temps and/or precip intensity will allow for much accumulation in the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Even LGA stands at 42/27 right now. That's got to be some type of record low for them this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The fact its not a deep storm that tracks more SW to NE up the coast with a prolonged period of heavier precipitation and alot of models showing a more E wind that NE is probably their reasoning...that said, it would not surprise me if this is the sort of storm where LGA/JFK/NYC report 1 inch and many people in Queens or Brooklyn get 4-5 in their yards respectivelty...this can be a big heat island biased storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The fact its not a deep storm that tracks more SW to NE up the coast with a prolonged period of heavier precipitation and alot of models showing a more E wind that NE is probably their reasoning...that said, it would not surprise me if this is the sort of storm where LGA/JFK/NYC report 1 inch and many people in Queens or Brooklyn get 4-5 in their yards respectivelty...this can be a big heat island biased storm. The Yankee Opening Day 1996 event is a famous example of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The Yankee Opening Day 1996 event is a famous example of that. I sat through that game never will forget it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The fact its not a deep storm that tracks more SW to NE up the coast with a prolonged period of heavier precipitation and alot of models showing a more E wind that NE is probably their reasoning...that said, it would not surprise me if this is the sort of storm where LGA/JFK/NYC report 1 inch and many people in Queens or Brooklyn get 4-5 in their yards respectivelty...this can be a big heat island biased storm. Feb. 21st had a tight gradient. 4" in LGA 4.5" in NE Queens and 1" at JFK. Something similar to that is very possible here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The Yankee Opening Day 1996 event is a famous example of that. That event much like 3/14/99 there was a glaring QPF gradient between NYC and Nassau county, the heavier echoes in both never really made it much west of Queens and that more than anything caused the big difference in amounts from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Thanks PT. Upton is calling for almost all rain for city. That's just plain weird and wrong, IMO. Different to say snow not accumulating and just plain rain. Something is wrong. It could be intensity-based, i.e. when it's heavy it's snow and when light it's rain. But I agree it will be hard to accumulate more than a small amount of slop during the day in/near NYC. The parks could accumulate some more but nothing on any street. The WAA aloft gets mighty close to the area as well when the heavier precip really ramps up, and it could be a messy slop mix then as well. It all goes back to colder snow for a time but the question is how much is left by then. I don't think it's all rain for LI/NYC given 850mb temps as cold as they are tomorrow, the pre-existing drier/cold air coming in, and at least some opportunity for heavy precip tomorrow. The real question along the coast is how far north the WAA gets, as if it goes above 0 at 850 when the heavy precip arrives it won't matter anyway. NW of 287 is golden for probably half a foot or more. Under good circumstances I could see Central Park accumulating a couple or few inches. I don't think any street in NYC has any snowcover until late night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Just my opinion but I think the radar looks excellent. Clear evidence of strong HP nosing into NYS. Severe storms in Iowa and Missouri. Convective elements in central Michigan. Strong returns into the southern tier of NY and a great angle of approach. I would be stoked to be in the Poconos or elevated NWNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Feb. 21st had a tight gradient. 4" in LGA 4.5" in NE Queens and 1" at JFK. Something similar to that is very possible here. I had 8" in that but the gradient was due to banding, not temps. 12/19/08 is a good example of an overrunning event with a tight temperature gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 21z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Andover, NJ total qpf is .94, probably all snow, possibly a little sleet mixed in. Morristown is .94 Caldwell is .95 Sussex is .90 These all match the 12z Euro almost exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 How about these surface reports from southwestern WI: KDLL: Light thunderstorm snow nearby. KVOK: Light thunderstorm, rain, hail, mist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I remember a storm in the early 2000's in March where I took the train into the city to get some book for school and it was snowing with barely any accumulation anywhere. As I took the train out of the city, you could immediately see the differences in accumulations, even in the western urban areas of Queens and Brooklyn. I had 5 inches of wet snow plastered everywhere in NE Queens when I got home. There is a good chance something like that can happen tomorrow into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I had 8" in that but the gradient was due to banding, not temps. 12/19/08 is a good example of an overrunning event with a tight temperature gradient. 2/8/94 JFK had 8 or 9 inches of snow and parts of northern Monmouth county like Matawan/Red Bank saw at most 1-2 and mainly sleet...that one had a relatively violent gradient vs. most from what I remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I sat through that game never will forget it! If you remember, the plate umpire Derryl Cousins was wearing his red short sleeve shirt that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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