H2Otown_WX Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 also snow ratios are gonna be ugly with this one.. even up here ill be lucky to see 10:1.. Clown map..there's your 12-14". http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here are my last three years: 08-09: 45" 09-10: 68" 10-11: 67" Estimating from the town co-op before I measured, I had about 60" in 02-03, 55" in 03-04/04-05, 40" in 05-06, 18" in 06-07/07-08. Long term average is 36" for the Dobbs Ferry co-op, my house is probably like 38"/season. But the rich have been getting richer lately. In terms of this storm, I think the gradient is mostly going to be south of here at the Bronx border. I see most of the suburbs getting 4-8", except that there's a signal on models for a really strong band in NE PA and extreme NNJ, so some people in North Jersey might see more. Hopefully that banding makes it to you as well. I think there will be a sharp drop-off when you hit urban areas and LI South Shore, where less will fall. Here are a few things to note in terms of gradients. It snowed here for the better part of two hours on Monday... Enough to get a slushy accumulation on the cars. I wasn't on the forum, but I know I didn't see any snow in the hourly updates from KNYC. There was a nice little storm here in March of 04... I believe March 19? where KNYC officially received a trace (though I think it was more like an inch from the pictures). We stayed snow and got 4 inches. I know Scarsdale had 6. Bottom line is the gradient will most likely be either 287 N or GWB N based on climo. Don't know which one it will be. I don't usually see it set up in between there. Of course, each storm is different. From that March 19th storm thanks to a pic Don Sutherland posted of mine on his weather archive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Clown map..there's your 12-14". http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX Even the GFS now has me getting ~ 5". At some point, the forecasted totals are going to need to be increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Even the GFS now has me getting ~ 5". At some point, the forecasted totals are going to need to be increased. Yeah I honestly am not sure if I would have backed off from the 7-14" dude. Some parts of NNJ could get the lower end in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 where is SACRUS and tracking storm maps? Dew Points. Not on my normal laptop, but this one is ok for the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah I honestly am not sure if I would have backed off from the 7-14" dude. Some parts of NNJ could get the lower end in a couple hours. Same here he shouldn't have changed his thoughts and he very well may be correct.. 7+" is easily doable with over an inch QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Even the GFS now has me getting ~ 5". At some point, the forecasted totals are going to need to be increased. Why? The public has a right to be ignorant to what may happen... But in all seriousness, if it does snow plenty, a lot of the public will be quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Dewpoints continue to drop. Temp at 9pm is 40 at HPN DP 24. I think people are going to be surprised but what do i know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 There was a nice little storm here in March of 04... I believe March 19? where KNYC officially received a trace (though I think it was more like an inch from the pictures). We stayed snow and got 4 inches. I know Scarsdale had 6. Classic suburbs only snow event... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SNOWFALL REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 1115 AM EST FRI MAR 19 2004 THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM THE MORNING OF MARCH 19, 2004, FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. STORM TIME/DATE COMMENTS LOCATION SNOWFALL OF (INCHES) MEASUREMENT CONNECTICUT ...FAIRFIELD... NEW CANAAN 7.0 645 AM 3/19 WESTPORT 5.9 840 AM 3/19 DARIEN 5.3 800 AM 3/19 BRIDGEPORT 5.0 1020 AM 3/19 NORWALK 4.5 715 AM 3/19 SHELTON 4.0 945 AM 3/19 BETHEL 3.5 1000 AM 3/19 DANBURY 3.1 900 AM 3/19 ...NEW HAVEN... MADISON 5.5 1030 AM 3/19 BRANFORD 5.0 800 AM 3/19 NEW JERSEY ...BERGEN... RIVER VALE 4.4 815 AM 3/19 FAIR LAWN 2.6 700 AM 3/19 RAMSEY 2.3 1000 AM 3/19 ...ESSEX... WEST ORANGE 3.5 900 AM 3/19 NEWARK 1.1 700 AM 3/19 ...PASSAIC... WEST MILFORD 7.5 630 AM 3/19 CHARLOTTESBURG 5.0 800 AM 3/19 LITTLE FALLS 4.8 745 AM 3/19 NEW YORK ...KINGS... GRAVES END 0.7 820 AM 3/19 ...NASSAU... WOODBURY 4.0 1050 AM 3/19 ROCKVILLE CENTRE 2.2 1110 AM 3/19 MERRICK 2.0 1030 AM 3/19 OCEANSIDE 1.6 1000 AM 3/19 HICKSVILLE 1.3 650 AM 3/19 ...NEW YORK... CENTRAL PARK TRACE 700 AM 3/19 MELTING ON CONTACT ...ORANGE... NEW WINDSOR 2.0 900 AM 3/19 MIDDLETOWN 1.7 930 AM 3/19 ...QUEENS... LGA AIRPORT 0.8 900 AM 3/19 RIDGEWOOD 0.7 1000 AM 3/19 ...ROCKLAND... NEW HEMPSTEAD 6.0 830 AM 3/19 650 FT ELEVATION VALLEY COTTAGE 4.0 930 AM 3/19 NEW CITY 4.0 930 AM 3/19 SPARK HILL 3.2 930 AM 3/19 ORANGEBURG 2.9 1000 AM 3/19 ...SUFFOLK... EAST SETAUKET 5.5 1010 AM 3/19 CENTEREACH 4.4 1000 AM 3/19 UPTON (NWS) 4.0 1115 AM 3/19 WADING RIVER 4.0 1100 AM 3/19 MT. SINAI 4.0 930 AM 3/19 LAKE GROVE 4.0 930 AM 3/19 CORAM 4.0 1000 AM 3/19 ST. JAMES 3.6 1040 AM 3/19 EAST HAMPTON AIRPORT 3.2 930 AM 3/19 BAITING HOLLOW 2.3 800 AM 3/19 CENTERPORT 2.0 810 AM 3/19 HICKSVILLE 1.3 700 AM 3/19 LAKE RONKONKOMA 0.8 745 AM 3/19 ...WESTCHESTER... WEST HARRISON 6.8 1000 AM 3/19 THORNWOOD 6.5 645 AM 3/19 WHITE PLAINS 6.2 1100 AM 3/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I thought his thoughts were fine with the 7-14, on the high side, but within reason. The ribbing he took was unwarranted and foolish. My own prediction was 6-10 and I have been sticking with it. I do think though that some isolated locations in higher elevations may see up to 14 inches. For some reason many people think you can't get big snow around here in late March. That simply is not the case, period. Same here he shouldn't have changed his thoughts and he very well may be correct.. 7+" is easily doable with over an inch QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Dewpoints continue to drop. Temp at 9pm is 40 at HPN DP 24. I think people are going to be surprised but what do i know We are in great shape with the dewpoints being in the mid 20s and most models keeping the 850 line WELL south of this area. I think we stay all snow and get crushed. Don't want to jinx it though. 41.1/28 here, mostly cloudy now, north wind continuing to advect in drier air to the region. This is about as good as it gets in late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We are in great shape with the dewpoints being in the mid 20s and most models keeping the 850 line WELL south of this area. I think we stay all snow and get crushed. Don't want to jinx it though. 41.1/28 here, mostly cloudy now, north wind continuing to advect in drier air to the region. This is about as good as it gets in late March. I was about to put the snowblower away last weekend. Good move to keep it around a bit more. Think we'll have a Crocus crusher with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 now that we got the whos getting what and how elevated your location is and how great it is for snow, its time for the "radar looks awful" weenies to come out and that discrepancy shall begin in a few hrs. 00z NAM soon, if it stays as cold as 18z its likely going to be the correct model, its very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Wet bulbs currently between 36-38F for most of the area, down to 34F far NW of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 SREFS at 21z came in colder than the 15z. 850s never get above zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Man, Great sign. Srefs are colder by a good amount. And very wet. Also has the evening and night snows for NYC. Excellent run and trend for NYC and coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Um, I had to make sure I had the right location. Now, I don't think the city will see 6"+, but 3-6" seems rather likely to me at this point (or perhaps 2-4"); this forecast from Upton certainly... er... doesn't corroborate with any of the models today. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=New+York&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.7198&lon=-73.993 All rain until Thursday with no accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Dewpoints continue to drop. Temp at 9pm is 40 at HPN DP 24. I think people are going to be surprised but what do i know The HPN observation is somewhat encouraging, but I'm worried about surface temps. And I don't mean boundary layer temps, rather, the surface temperature below 500ft or so. Cold and or dry air is not advecting southward fast enough for my liking. I'd like to see some low 20s dewpoints to compensate for temps currently in the low 40s across most of the area. We've seen this scenario many times, especially in March, where the antecedent airmass is marginal and an elevation snowstorm results. I have little doubt that it will snow, probably even at low elevations and many coastal spots, but if we don't cool off several more degrees in the next several hours, the first half of the storm will be very spring-like. It would be a shame to spoil what could otherwise be a pleasantly wintry storm. Sufficiently cold air will arrive Wed night to transition whatever remains to snow, but if we're lucky enough to start as accumulating snow tomorrow morning, we could enjoy the rare duration snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Man, Great sign. Srefs are colder by a good amount. And very wet. Also has the evening and night snows for NYC. Excellent run and trend for NYC and coast. How much QPF on the SREF for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I saw TWC predict 5" - 9" for Green Bay, WI. That seems low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Um, I had to make sure I had the right location. Now, I don't think the city will see 6"+, but 3-6" seems rather likely to me at this point (or perhaps 2-4"); this forecast from Upton certainly... er... doesn't corroborate with any of the models today. http://forecast.weat...198&lon=-73.993 All rain until Thursday with no accumulations. They keep trending warmer even though models are trending colder. KNYC is at 43/27 with a stiff north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z NAM is looking pretty impressive both with temps and qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z nam is pretty much a carbon copy of the 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 We are in great shape with the dewpoints being in the mid 20s and most models keeping the 850 line WELL south of this area. I think we stay all snow and get crushed. Don't want to jinx it though. 41.1/28 here, mostly cloudy now, north wind continuing to advect in drier air to the region. This is about as good as it gets in late March. NAM MOS says we drop off steadily from here, reaching near freezing by around daybreak. I hope that's right. I'll be watching Albany and Glens Falls to see if they fall into the middle 20s overnight. IMO, 41/28 is pretty unimpressive with only gradual CAA expected. I'm about 30 miles north of you but at a lower elevation. Roughly 43/24 here. I'd like to see the wet bulb fall to about 34F by daybreak to feel hopeful. Still need 3 or 4 more degrees cooling/drying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z NAM is looking pretty impressive both with temps and qpf Warmer than 18z though, which was warmer than 12z. Undoubtedly a warming trend. The city is borderline on the 00z NAM in terms of wet snow vs. cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Save for surface temps., the 00Z NAM is nearly a perfect run for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 a general .75 to 1 inch total liquid. 0C 850 line gets just up to nyc before dropping south when the coastal and 850 start to crank not as robust as 18z but 18z was probably over done. Still looks nothing like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 a general .75 to 1 inch total liquid. 0C 850 line gets just up to nyc before dropping south when the coastal and 850 start to crank not as robust as 18z but 18z was probably over done. Still looks nothing like the gfs. This is almost exactly the same as 18z only a little drier and a hair warmer at one 3 hour time interval, but still good enough for people away from the south shores. NOTHING like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 new NAM, new SREFS, EURO, GGEM, UKMET pretty much all agree now. GFS is in lala land at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Nam was southern outlier. This run just bought it in line with euro, UKIE and Ggem. Srefs at 15z were too north and they too came south and in line. I expect GFS to bump south and also the rgem. Decent snowfall for NYC and very good for north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.