snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I don't live right on the Hudson actually, it's not even walking distance from my house unless you're prepared for some exercise. I don't see how you could know where my house is so it seems silly to comment. You might say I'm making too much of being at 350', but I think you're making too much of being further to the NW. If temperatures are cold enough for everyone, which most of the models are indicating, it's just going to come down to who gets the heaviest banding, not whether you live in Westchester or Orange County. And I think the signal is for a heavy band to orient itself from NYC towards your area, so we should all be under pretty good snow growth/evaporational cooling/omega. I don't really see Westchester struggling to accumulate, especially at 400' elevation. Dewpoint is 28F here by the way and temperatures are falling towards 40F. You seem to think your being NW is so great, yet who's had more snow this year? I hope this comment is a joke. If your a snow lover I would much rather have my location over a spot in lower westchester... smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 As some have pointed out though, the NAM has been running too cold with the temps. I agree with what the Euro printed out, which is temps around 35 for most of the storm. So I'm looking for non accumulating snow during the daylight hours, and then a small slushy accumulation tomorrow night. A dusting to an inch is a good call for the city, IMO. Of course north and west is a different story and several inches can fall. But temps are too borderline for areas near the coast. Having the 850 OC line to our south this time of year obviously does not mean temps will fall to freezing. Mid 30s looks about right to me for most of the storm, so it will take heavy snow to squeeze out a light slushy accumulation. Again though, I hope I'm wrong and we get more. You never know and March is such an unpredictable month. Again though, I've seen snow stick with temps around 35 if it's coming down heavy enough. Also, I think temps in the NYC area will drop at or below freezing once the sun begins to set and dynamic cooling from heavy precip rates helps to bring colder air down to the surface. NAM and GFS ensembles give 0.5 to 0.75 inches of QPF to the NYC area (presumably as snow since 850's are below freezing) even after the sun angle begins to lower; I just have a hard time buying that all of that QPF will only result in a dusting to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Again though, I've seen snow stick with temps around 35 if it's coming down heavy enough. Also, I think temps in the NYC area will drop at or below freezing once the sun begins to set and dynamic cooling from heavy precip rates helps to bring colder air down to the surface. NAM and GFS ensembles give 0.5 to 0.75 inches of QPF to the NYC area (presumably as snow since 850's are below freezing) even after the sun angle begins to lower; I just have a hard time buying that all of that QPF will only result in a dusting to an inch. If the .75"-1.25" qpf amounts verify, no way NYC and coast only see a coating. No way. Hard rates will stick. Especially on grass and other areas. Grass accumulations count as totals. I can't fathom how Upton is forecasting .5" of accumulation when 90% of models have moderate precip into night time and overnight tomorrow. Are they forecasting for cement acccumulations? Makes no sense unless they think it will change to plain rain and stay that way. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If the .75"-1.25" qpf amounts verify, no way NYC and coast only see a coating. No way. Hard rates will stick. Especially on grass and other areas. Grass accumulations count as totals. I can't fathom how Upton is forecasting .5" of accumulation when 90% of models have moderate precip into night time and overnight tomorrow. Are they forecasting for cement acccumulations? Makes no sense unless they think it will change to plain rain and stay that way. I guess we shall see. I agree. Heavy precip will fall as snow with 850s -2 or lower, and it should stick if it's really heavy, probably a 33F or so paste. It should be an impressive event for some and the high nosing down and still fairly clear skies are encouraging. A track like this a month ago would have been an easy 8-14" kind of storm for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I am reminded of Upton's forecast right before 1/27 where they stated they didn't think anyone outside of orange county would see warning criteria snow and then of course basically everyone s and e of there saw a lot more than that. In any other year, a marginal situation like this would probably verify like Upton is forecasting, but this is not any other year. These blocky setups with the dry air (not really cold, but cold enough) are verifying on the whiter, not wetter side. You also have to remember January 2008 still burns them. Tomorrow night this time we should know how its going to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I would forecast 4-8" for Dobbs Ferry. I think there will be a jackpot somewhere in Westchester/Putnam/Orange/Rockland that gets close to 12", but I am probably too near the coast for that. 18z NAM came in with .87 for KSWF and 1.09 of QPF for KHPN http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=khpn http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kswf GFS 18z came in with 1.37 KSWF and 1.05 for KHPN http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=kswf http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=khpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 18z NAM came in with .87 for KSWF and 1.09 of QPF for KHPN GFS 18z came in with 1.37 KSWF and 1.05 for KHPN Given these totals, I think 4-8" is a good forecast for Southern Westchester. Temperatures are marginal on the GFS, and the NAM does tend to exaggerate QPF. 4-8" is still a very gutsy call considering what the NWS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I hope this comment is a joke. If your a snow lover I would much rather have my location over a spot in lower westchester... smh How much did you measure last year and in 08-09 by the way? You clearly average way more than I but totals have been a bit distorted with all this blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Given these totals, I think 4-8" is a good forecast for Southern Westchester. Temperatures are marginal on the GFS, and the NAM does tend to exaggerate QPF. 4-8" is still a very gutsy call considering what the NWS is showing. UKIE, euro, Ggem, arw, nmm, mm5, Gefs and Srefs are all also .75"-1"+ of Qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 UKIE, euro, Ggem, arw, nmm, mm5, Gefs and Srefs are all also .75"-1"+ of Qpf. which implies a 8-10 inch snowfall gvien the situation if it falls at heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 The reason for why Mt. Holly's forecast is warmer than every single model except the south/cold trending GFS: LIKE MOST EARLY SPRING STORMS THIS WILL BE ELEVATION DEPENDENT AND THUS WOULDN`T BE SHOCKED IF THE RANGES IN ALL OF THE ADVISED/WARNED COUNTIES WITH HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE GREATER. They are also using climo as their argument... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 which implies a 8-10 inch snowfall gvien the situation if it falls at heavy enough. Not in this setup chris. But .50" of accumulation is insane call, if all that stays snow. Only GFS has rain and rgem has a little as well. Every single other model has 90% snow with a quick change to sleet mix when low is at it's closest point before passing east. But if .75"-1.25" Qpf amounts verify and the night event verifies, it's almost definitely a 3"-6" event. Especially on grassy areas, which count towards snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 which implies a 8-10 inch snowfall gvien the situation if it falls at heavy enough. Ratios will likely average less than 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Given these totals, I think 4-8" is a good forecast for Southern Westchester. Temperatures are marginal on the GFS, and the NAM does tend to exaggerate QPF. 4-8" is still a very gutsy call considering what the NWS is showing. Good luck down there. The NAM was bullish a couple of days ago and then it backed off as it mostly does. The runs from early today were realy light and then they upped a bit at 18z.. Back at post# 641 is why the run might have been lighter with the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not in this setup chris. But .50" of accumulation is insane call, if all that stays snow. Only GFS has rain and rgem has a little as well. Every single other model has 90% snow with a quick change to sleet mix when low is at it's closest point before passing east. But if .75"-1.25" Qpf amounts verify and the night event verifies, it's almost definitely a 3"-6" event. Especially on grassy areas, which count towards snow amounts. Yeah, I should have explained it if it wasn't for the timing and being the March being a factor. Jan-Feb, this would be a solid 8-12". but yeah 3-5" is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I agree 100%. New York City will see very significant accumulations. To say the National Weather Service forecasts have been rather poor lately would be an understatement. Their forecast for me for yesterday morning was for less than a half inch of snow with rain and a high of 51. We had 3 inches of snow, it never mixed with rain or sleet at all, and the high was 37 yesterday. If the .75"-1.25" qpf amounts verify, no way NYC and coast only see a coating. No way. Hard rates will stick. Especially on grass and other areas. Grass accumulations count as totals. I can't fathom how Upton is forecasting .5" of accumulation when 90% of models have moderate precip into night time and overnight tomorrow. Are they forecasting for cement acccumulations? Makes no sense unless they think it will change to plain rain and stay that way. I guess we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 How much did you measure last year and in 08-09 by the way? You clearly average way more than I but totals have been a bit distorted with all this blocking. Yeah the last few yrs have been interesting to say the least.. Since 02-03 winter I have averaged 66.3" 09-10 -- 76" 08-09 -- 43.9" My seasonal avg is roughly 50-55" so this yr has been nothing special for us. Slighty above avg.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 where is SACRUS and tracking storm maps? Dew Points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 where is SACRUS and tracking storm maps? Dew Points. Here is another link for the Dewpts. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ctp/analysis/dewpt_regn_loop.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Yeah the last few yrs have been interesting to say the least.. Since 02-03 winter I have averaged 66.3" 09-10 -- 76" 08-09 -- 43.9" My seasonal avg is roughly 50-55" so this yr has been nothing special for us. Slighty above avg.. Here are my last three years: 08-09: 45" 09-10: 68" 10-11: 67" Estimating from the town co-op before I measured, I had about 60" in 02-03, 55" in 03-04/04-05, 40" in 05-06, 18" in 06-07/07-08. Long term average is 36" for the Dobbs Ferry co-op, my house is probably like 38"/season. But the rich have been getting richer lately. In terms of this storm, I think the gradient is mostly going to be south of here at the Bronx border. I see most of the suburbs getting 4-8", except that there's a signal on models for a really strong band in NE PA and extreme NNJ, so some people in North Jersey might see more. Hopefully that banding makes it to you as well. I think there will be a sharp drop-off when you hit urban areas and LI South Shore, where less will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here is another link for the Dewpts. http://www.erh.noaa....t_regn_loop.htm your's totally wins. Look at the dry air and confluence work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Here are my last three years: 08-09: 45" 09-10: 68" 10-11: 67" Estimating from the town co-op before I measured, I had about 60" in 02-03, 55" in 03-04/04-05, 40" in 05-06, 18" in 06-07/07-08. Long term average is 36" for the Dobbs Ferry co-op, my house is probably like 38"/season. But the rich have been getting richer lately. In terms of this storm, I think the gradient is mostly going to be south of here at the Bronx border. I see most of the suburbs getting 4-8", except that there's a signal on models for a really strong band in NE PA and extreme NNJ, so some people in North Jersey might see more. Hopefully that banding makes it to you as well. I think there will be a sharp drop-off when you hit urban areas and LI South Shore, where less will fall. Every single model gives me greater then .75" of qpf.. RGEM & GFS print out 1"+ for my area... 18z GFS actually prints out 1.57" of qpf all snow for MGJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 your's totally wins. Look at the dry air and confluence work in. What's mine is yours it's a keeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 If I can get 1-3 or 2-4 in sw nass cnty, I'll be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I guess NWS doesn't issue forcasts for grassy surfaces. I agree with them somewhat, snow on grass never hurt anyone. However DR. Atkins was killed when he slipped during the april 03 storm, so an advisory might be needed just to get road crews on standby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I guess NWS doesn't issue forcasts for grassy surfaces. I agree with them somewhat, snow on grass never hurt anyone. However DR. Atkins was killed when he slipped during the april 03 storm, so an advisory might be needed just to get road crews on standby. But heavy wet snow on trees does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Every single model gives me greater then .75" of qpf.. RGEM & GFS print out 1"+ for my area... 18z GFS actually prints out 1.57" of qpf all snow for MGJ. I wouldn't be surprised if you get 12+, and I wouldn't be shocked if I got more than 8" either. But the general rule is to take 1/3 off modeled QPF, I think. Especially when using the NAM. The NAM verbatim is over a foot here, I get crushed. Do I believe it? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 What's mine is yours it's a keeper. Having trouble seeing the GFS' solutuion verifying with that confluence building in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if you get 12+, and I wouldn't be shocked if I got more than 8" either. But the general rule is to take 1/3 off modeled QPF, I think. Especially when using the NAM. The NAM verbatim is over a foot here, I get crushed. Do I believe it? No. also snow ratios are gonna be ugly with this one.. even up here ill be lucky to see 10:1.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 I wouldn't be surprised if you get 12+, and I wouldn't be shocked if I got more than 8" either. But the general rule is to take 1/3 off modeled QPF, I think. Especially when using the NAM. The NAM verbatim is over a foot here, I get crushed. Do I believe it? No. Jan 26-27 every single guidance had .50"-.75" for several runs right before event. Some had even less. Guidance lots of times under does precip as well. Today at 12z and 18z, all guidance raised Qpf. Ecmwf almost doubled it's Qpf from last night. Went from .43" to .83" for NYC. Usually, its the other way around and models cut back as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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