3/23 - 3/24 Winter Storm

[winterwx21]

Did you see the Euro? Go with that solution. 6-12 for Northern NJ, possibly into NYC.

As earthlight said, Euro is borderline wet snow. How you can go from that to possibly 6-12 into NYC, I have no idea. People I can see are desperate because it has been so long since we've had snow, and it's causing them to reach.

[CooL]

Sorry but it's just driving me crazy how people are misreading these model runs. Borderline temps can work in February. They don't work in late March. If 18z GFS was showing this solution in January or February, it would be a decent snow event. In late March this solution isn't impressive enough for a decent snow event in the NYC/central Jersey area. I just find it funny how people are looking at these solutions as if it's a couple months earlier, and don't realize you need much colder thicknesses in late March. I can guarantee you central Jersey wouldn't get a 4 to 8 snow event if it plays out as 18z GFS is showing.

we'll see, dont worry too much about it. If it snows it snows, if it doesnt - oh well we get burned.

[CooL]

As earthlight said, Euro is borderline wet snow. How you can go from that to possibly 6-12 into NYC, I have no idea. People I can see are desperate because it has been so long since we've had snow, and it's causing them to reach.

Euro gives everyone in and around NYC over 1" QPF as ALL SNOW based on soundings. Factor in wet snow and it mostly occurs at night and thats a 6" snowstorm whether you like it or not.

[Allsnow]

As earthlight said, Euro is borderline wet snow. How you can go from that to possibly 6-12 into NYC, I have no idea. People I can see are desperate because it has been so long since we've had snow, and it's causing them to reach.

How is it desperate saying a model shows snow for new brunswick north? the output for nyc was close to a inch liquid with it all snow and the brunt over night.......so it would prob burn ur sun angel theory

[atownwxwatcher]

ECM Text for NYC

WED 18Z 23-MAR 2.5 -4.8 1012 64 100 0.03 552 543

THU 00Z 24-MAR 0.6 -4.3 1006 93 100 0.28 549 544

THU 06Z 24-MAR 1.5 -1.6 996 97 95 0.35 540 544

THU 12Z 24-MAR 1.0 -3.4 994 94 97 0.25 533 538

THU 18Z 24-MAR 2.3 -6.8 999 80 93 0.12 534 535

FRI 00Z 25-MAR 1.5 -6.8 1004 74 51 0.02 535 532

Surface a tad above freezing about 35..but 850s plenty supportive....I would basically say a wet snow is the most likely bet...

Sorry guys not my thread or area but figured i put the text in for viewing...

[Edge Weather]

He said borderline wet snow for north of Philly. I am talking about Northern New Jersey where the Euro has surface and 850 temps below freezing the entire time.

As earthlight said, Euro is borderline wet snow. How you can go from that to possibly 6-12 into NYC, I have no idea. People I can see are desperate because it has been so long since we've had snow, and it's causing them to reach.

[Allsnow]

Euro gives everyone in and around NYC over 1" QPF as ALL SNOW based on soundings. Factor in wet snow and it mostly occurs at night and thats a 6" snowstorm whether you like it or not.

no way sun is higher and blah blah blah..

[winterwx21]

Im not misreading a model that gives me all snow and .25-.50 of it........if you dont think that gives us accumlation, then perhaps you should learn to read models again. I been doing this a long time.....im not some newb with a fetish for snow.......i understand the sun angel...ur like a skratch cd.....just let it go pal

My point is, you can't take the model actually printing out snow literally this time of year with the thicknesses and surface temps it's showing. I know the model verbatim is showing snow, but you have to go by experience in late March. I've seen this many times. You need colder temps than the model is showing, because they'll increase as the event gets closer. You'll see next week. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it. I just think people are really underestimating what it takes to get a snow event that late in the season.

[winterwx21]

How is it desperate saying a model shows snow for new brunswick north? the output for nyc was close to a inch liquid with it all snow and the brunt over night.......so it would prob burn ur sun angel theory

What sun angle theory? I never even used the words sun angle in any of my posts.

[winterwx21]

Euro gives everyone in and around NYC over 1" QPF as ALL SNOW based on soundings. Factor in wet snow and it mostly occurs at night and thats a 6" snowstorm whether you like it or not.

I would like it. I love snow. I just don't see it here.

[Edge Weather]

At this point, I can honestly say I have no clue what you are even talking about. It is not hard for it to snow in northern NJ in March. Heck it snows here once every three years in April. I was in a terrible car accident here in April once on Rt. 80 with a couple of inches of snow during the mid-day. What on earth are you talking about?

My point is, you can't take the model actually printing out snow literally this time of year with the thicknesses and surface temps it's showing. I know the model verbatim is showing snow, but you have to go by experience in late March. I've seen this many times. You need colder temps than the model is showing, because they'll increase as the event gets closer. You'll see next week. If I'm wrong, I'll gladly admit it. I just think people are really underestimating what it takes to get a snow event that late in the season.

[Edge Weather]

You will quite literally start seeing it at about 7am on Wednesday morning until around 1pm on Thursday afternoon. Enjoy.

I would like it. I love snow. I just don't see it here.

[CooL]

What sun angle theory? I never even used the words sun angle in any of my posts.

cmon man why are you getting agitated because we are rooting for snow and discussing model data? we know your opinion now after many repeated posts, we know its late march and hard to get accumulating snow. Me personally? i like the setup, i like where the models are headed, i think it will be marginal but cold enough, especially with a polar vortex sitting right over top of the storm, and the low p is trending stronger with each run which is a +...let it play out, many model runs to go

[EasternLI]

Lol, I've only been around this forum since this year. It's hilarious to me that everyone argues like a married couple for every snow threat. Do you guys do this for the first 100 degree day too

[winterwx21]

Here's a post from a highly respected meteorologist on tristateweatherboard. A guy that has been pretty much dead on all winter............

"One more time from the cheap seats... Those thicknesses and temperature cannot and will not support accumulating snow in late March. Period. End of sentence. Good night Irene."

I'm not gonna say anything more on this guys, since it seems to be irritating you so much. We will see what happens. I truly hope we do get snow, because I'm a snow lover. I just don't see it with the temps being shown in late March.

[winterwx21]

At this point, I can honestly say I have no clue what you are even talking about. It is not hard for it to snow in northern NJ in March. Heck it snows here once every three years in April. I was in a terrible car accident here in April once on Rt. 80 with a couple of inches of snow during the mid-day. What on earth are you talking about?

I'm talking central Jersey to NYC. I've said northwest Jersey can get a slushy accumulation out of this. And I do know what I'm talking about ... I've always been good at forecasting weather. We'll see what happens. Take care.

[EasternLI]

Sorry but it's just driving me crazy how people are misreading these model runs. Borderline temps can work in February. They don't work in late March. If 18z GFS was showing this solution in January or February, it would be a decent snow event. In late March this solution isn't impressive enough for a decent snow event in the NYC/central Jersey area. I just find it funny how people are looking at these solutions as if it's a couple months earlier, and don't realize you need much colder thicknesses in late March. I can guarantee you central Jersey wouldn't get a 4 to 8 snow event if it plays out as 18z GFS is showing.

Respectfully disagree with that little statement above. Borderline temps are pretty much what your going to get this time of year. Plus, I can remember plenty of snowstorms late march early april even out here. And please don't start telling me about ocean temps, it's all about wind direction with regards to that. Just like it is all winter long. If it's cold enough, and precip falls heavily enough, it will accumulate.

[winterwx21]

Euro gives everyone in and around NYC over 1" QPF as ALL SNOW based on soundings. Factor in wet snow and it mostly occurs at night and thats a 6" snowstorm whether you like it or not.

Just to show how talented people can interpret things differently, here's a post from a meteorologist on tristateweather on the Euro soundings.......

"I looked at the Euro soundings for NYC. It's not all snow. Coldest surface temperature is 0.6 C... yes, there could be some wet snow. But accumulations - nope!"

The issue here is some of us believe you need a lot colder thicknesses/temps in late March to support accumulating snow than you need during the winter. Others think we can get by with those temps. We will see who ends up being right. I hope people aren't getting the idea that I'm irritated with those that are pumping the snow possibility. Just because I think people aren't reading this right and it drives me crazy a little bit, I still have respect for these people. I'm not mad. I hope I end up being wrong and we get snow.

[Edge Weather]

Who knows, maybe you'll end up being right, but Joe Bastardi has been calling for snow here for about a week, and so have I. One of our camps will be right, and of course I am bias and hope it is mine and Joe Bastardi's. The Euro is on my side at the moment with 850's and surface temps below freezing in Northern New Jersey. I and Joe Bastardi could not have a better model on our side.

Just to show how talented people can interpret things differently, here's a post from a meteorologist on tristateweather on the Euro soundings.......

"I looked at the Euro soundings for NYC. It's not all snow. Coldest surface temperature is 0.6 C... yes, there could be some wet snow. But accumulations - nope!"

The issue here is some of us believe you need a lot colder thicknesses/temps in late March to support accumulating snow than you need during the winter. Others think we can get by with those temps. We will see who ends up being right. I hope people aren't getting the idea that I'm irritated with those that are pumping the snow possibility. Just because I think people aren't reading this right and it drives me crazy a little bit, I still have respect for these people. I'm not mad. I hope I end up being wrong and we get snow.

[CooL]

Just to show how talented people can interpret things differently, here's a post from a meteorologist on tristateweather on the Euro soundings.......

"I looked at the Euro soundings for NYC. It's not all snow. Coldest surface temperature is 0.6 C... yes, there could be some wet snow. But accumulations - nope!"

The issue here is some of us believe you need a lot colder thicknesses/temps in late March to support accumulating snow than you need during the winter. Others think we can get by with those temps. We will see who ends up being right. I hope people aren't getting the idea that I'm irritated with those that are pumping the snow possibility. Just because I think people aren't reading this right and it drives me crazy a little bit, I still have respect for these people. I'm not mad. I hope I end up being wrong and we get snow.

i dont even know who this guy is and personally i dont care... and like i said before, everyone in this forum is not in NYC - where accumulations will be harder. Its 5 days out and you are just taking it too far now and you are in troll territory with these repeated posts and random mets, its just weather dude. Everyone has their own opinion

[winterwx21]

i dont even know who this guy is and personally i dont care... and like i said before, everyone in this forum is not in NYC - where accumulations will be harder. Its 5 days out and you are just taking it too far now and you are in troll territory with these repeated posts and random mets, its just weather dude. Everyone has their own opinion

I don't think giving opinions and posting thoughts from mets is trolling. You're right that we're all entitled to our opinions. Like I said, I have respect for the people I'm disagreeing with here. We will see who ends up being right.

[NEG NAO]

[This storm is reminding me of the March 28 - 29 , 1984 storm more and more went from about an inch in freehold to 3 in metro nyc and 8 - 12 in northwest NJ . NYC metro was above freezing mid 30's the whole event......

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/1984/3/29/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[Isotherm]

It's all about precipitation intensity. I've seen events in mid January where it's snowing very lightly at 19 degrees, but not accumulating on paved surfaces. In the same breath, we've had 33-34 degree hvy snow and sticking on everything (regardless of the month). April 2003 had a 1044mb high in Quebec; pcpn intensity was mod to hvy, and temps around freezing during daylight hours, actually slightly > 32F in many spots. 3-6" locally 8" resulted in C/N NJ.

This go around, we've got a large 1035-40mb high pressure, slightly weaker than 2003, but we are about 2 weeks earlier (late March). If precip is only light during the day, more than likely we won't see much accumulation regardless of how cold it is at the surface. It may be a situation where much of the day features light, non-accumulating snow (basically just makes the scene pretty), then the accumulating stuff waits until 00z-06z.

Again I'd watch pcpn intensity closer than exact temps. Obviously we need it pretty cold even w/ hvy precip (preferrably 33F or lower).

[Allsnow]

It's all about precipitation intensity. I've seen events in mid January where it's snowing very lightly at 19 degrees, but not accumulating on paved surfaces. In the same breath, we've had 33-34 degree hvy snow and sticking on everything (regardless of the month). April 2003 had a 1044mb high in Quebec; pcpn intensity was mod to hvy, and temps around freezing during daylight hours, actually slightly > 32F in many spots. 3-6" locally 8" resulted in C/N NJ.

This go around, we've got a large 1035-40mb high pressure, slightly weaker than 2003, but we are about 2 weeks earlier (late March). If precip is only light during the day, more than likely we won't see much accumulation regardless of how cold it is at the surface. It may be a situation where much of the day features light, non-accumulating snow (basically just makes the scene pretty), then the accumulating stuff waits until 00z-06z.

Again I'd watch pcpn intensity closer than exact temps. Obviously we need it pretty cold even w/ hvy precip (preferrably 33F or lower).

nice post tom. I remeber we had about 3 on the pavement in 2003. Most of that came in a 3 hr window just after 1pm. Everything needed to be plowed.

[Isotherm]

nice post tom. I remeber we had about 3 on the pavement in 2003. Most of that came in a 3 hr window just after 1pm. Everything needed to be plowed.

Thanks Tim. Let's hope we can get one more decent accumulation event, then I'll be ready for warmth. Maybe if we're really lucky, 2 accumulating events in the next few weeks. Pattern looks favorable through April 10th w/ NAO blocking donwstream, and a decent PNA ridge.

[bmc10]

I would argue that one should never discount the potential for snow this time of the year. A snowier scenario however is only viable when the pattern is supportive. I think this setup is favorable in some aspects. Obviously a large area of confluence that is kept in check by a large block will help to keep things cooler. The ridging is really helping to force the cold down into the NE, nice CAD signature. I agree with those who express some doubts because of marginal surface temps, that is always a reasonable cause for concern at this time of the year. Also with the primary initially heading N into the block before being forced W to E with the flow under the confluence, some WAA ahead of the lp is cause for concern. The interaction between these two major features and where the baroclinic zone establishes are pivotal and should be monitored. I think there is potential for some accumulating snow, but the chances are much greater for the more favorable higher elevations of northern NJ and southern NY. These types of systems this time of the year tend to be more favorable for interior areas, but accumulating snows in NYC are still possible. The next few days will be important in determining the future outcome.

[HM]

It's all about precipitation intensity. I've seen events in mid January where it's snowing very lightly at 19 degrees, but not accumulating on paved surfaces. In the same breath, we've had 33-34 degree hvy snow and sticking on everything (regardless of the month). April 2003 had a 1044mb high in Quebec; pcpn intensity was mod to hvy, and temps around freezing during daylight hours, actually slightly > 32F in many spots. 3-6" locally 8" resulted in C/N NJ.

This go around, we've got a large 1035-40mb high pressure, slightly weaker than 2003, but we are about 2 weeks earlier (late March). If precip is only light during the day, more than likely we won't see much accumulation regardless of how cold it is at the surface. It may be a situation where much of the day features light, non-accumulating snow (basically just makes the scene pretty), then the accumulating stuff waits until 00z-06z.

Again I'd watch pcpn intensity closer than exact temps. Obviously we need it pretty cold even w/ hvy precip (preferrably 33F or lower).

Great post. This about sums up the situation through April 10th. You couldn't ask for a better pattern this time of year for snow (all nitpicking aside).

[ag3]

Euro soundings are all snow.

Surface is 34-35 at one point but it's still snow.

Heaviest precip falls 7pm wed-7am thurs.

Even at 33-34, it will stick.

[nzucker]

0z GFS is very marginal with the initial overrunning, probably some wet snow/rain mix for NYC and an inch or two of slop in the NW 'burbs, but then we all get some accumulations from a Norlun-like feature. Here are the relevant frames:

[RU848789]

It's all about precipitation intensity. I've seen events in mid January where it's snowing very lightly at 19 degrees, but not accumulating on paved surfaces. In the same breath, we've had 33-34 degree hvy snow and sticking on everything (regardless of the month). April 2003 had a 1044mb high in Quebec; pcpn intensity was mod to hvy, and temps around freezing during daylight hours, actually slightly > 32F in many spots. 3-6" locally 8" resulted in C/N NJ.

This go around, we've got a large 1035-40mb high pressure, slightly weaker than 2003, but we are about 2 weeks earlier (late March). If precip is only light during the day, more than likely we won't see much accumulation regardless of how cold it is at the surface. It may be a situation where much of the day features light, non-accumulating snow (basically just makes the scene pretty), then the accumulating stuff waits until 00z-06z.

Again I'd watch pcpn intensity closer than exact temps. Obviously we need it pretty cold even w/ hvy precip (preferrably 33F or lower).

Absolutely. It's a simple mass balance: accumulation = snowfall rate - melting rate. Obviously melting rate is a function of ground temperature and solar insolation and if the snow is falling during the day with slightly above freezing temperatures in late March, the melting rate will be significantly greater than on a 25F day on the winter solstice, but it won't be insurmountable for accumulating snow, even on asphalt, as long as the snowfall rate (intensity) is great enough. Furthermore, once an initial snow layer sets up on the ground/asphalt, the ground temperature immediately becomes 32F, removing that as a factor in the melting rate. We've seen accumulating snow enough times in Spring with above freezing temps during the day for people to realize it's very possible.