ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Gefs mean has .50"-.75" falling tomorrow afternoon and night. And is colder by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Whats wrong with 2.5" for lower westchester? How does .75" QPF as snow translate to only 2" accumulation? We managed over an inch on the terrible set-up yesterday morning with warmer 850s, lighter precip, and warmer surface temperatures. Westchester typically does well in overrunning set-ups, much better than Central Park, and yet Upton has the gradient way too far north. I don't think Middletown is going to see that much more snow than I do, since we're both below 0C at 850mb and have dewpoints in the 20s. In some ways, I could see more snow falling farther south since the 18z NAM and the RGEM shows the heaviest QPF right around NYC and not to the north. yeah 5-10" in NW jersey with < 1" in NE jersey cmon now. NW areas will see more but i doubt the gradient is that sharp given the model data and analysis you just gave This is a total joke forecast. This isn't really an elevation-dependent event where High Point is going to get 12" and the immediate NE Jersey suburbs get 1". In fact, I don't really think this is a marginal event at all for NYC north, and I would have said the same thing three days ago. The 18z NAM shows that surface temperatures are right around freezing tomorrow afternoon, and dive quickly on the 30-hour frame. Even Central Park is no warmer than 33F, not accounting for dynamic cooling in a really heavy band that's possible....Southern Westchester is right at 32F: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 lol there's a pretty big difference between Mt. Holly's 3-4 inch forecast for Somerset and Morris counties and Upton's 0.6 inch forecast for the counties just to the east (Union, Essex). I can't believe Upton is only forecasting half an inch of snow for the city and NE NJ. What are they basing this on? It's because a lot of accumulation will be lost due to warm ground and temps a little above freezing. East winds and temps a little above freezing in late March is not a good recipe for accumulating snow near the coast. Upton's less than an inch makes sense to me, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I have noticed in several previous March's that it's after about 2:30 PM that the sun has gotten low enough in the sky for snow to accumulate out here on borderline days...though there are obviously other variables in play.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 East winds tomorrow in the city won't let the temp drop much below 35-38 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 East winds tomorrow in the city won't let the temp drop much below 35-38 F. Winds at the surface should be out of the NE or the ENE at worst...and it is cold air being drawn down from New England and the Maritime Provinces from the anticyclone over E. Canada... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 East winds tomorrow in the city won't let the temp drop much below 35-38 F. 1. its not January (water is coldest right around this time) 2. winds will be pretty light 3. heavy precip will definately funnel colder air to the surface, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's because a lot of accumulation will be lost due to warm ground and temps a little above freezing. East winds and temps a little above freezing in late March is not a good recipe for accumulating snow near the coast. Upton's less than an inch makes sense to me, but we will see. Accumulation may be tough along the immediate coast in the daytime, but once the sun sets it will be much easier, and the 18z NAM gives NYC about 0.6'' QPF after the sun sets and temps drop to the freezing mark. It also depends on how heavy the rates are because I've seen snow stick to the ground many times during the daytime with temps marginally above freezing when the rates are heavy enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 How does .75" QPF as snow translate to only 2" accumulation? We managed over an inch on the terrible set-up yesterday morning with warmer 850s, lighter precip, and warmer surface temperatures. Westchester typically does well in overrunning set-ups, much better than Central Park, and yet Upton has the gradient way too far north. I don't think Middletown is going to see that much more snow than I do, since we're both below 0C at 850mb and have dewpoints in the 20s. In some ways, I could see more snow falling farther south since the 18z NAM and the RGEM shows the heaviest QPF right around NYC and not to the north. Snow growth is gonna be alot better up here then down in lower westchester & to compare western orange county to lower westechester in a spring storm is foolish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FWIW TWC 3-5" now for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 1. its not January (water is coldest right around this time) 2. winds will be pretty light 3. heavy precip will definately funnel colder air to the surface, It's still 50 F here, and the temp here doesn't drop very fast without a solid N wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's still 50 F here, and the temp here doesn't drop very fast without a solid N wind. Dew points are in 20's. Temps will rapidly drop with precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Also water temps have been warming the past couple weeks and are pretty much in the low-mid 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's still 50 F here, and the temp here doesn't drop very fast without a solid N wind. 47 here, I don't deal with UHI as bad as you in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's still 50 F here, and the temp here doesn't drop very fast without a solid N wind. Dewpoints are low so evaporational cooling takes place at the onste of precip. This is part of the reason why many areas with the last storm saw rain/mix initially change to a wet snow. That storm on Monday had a stiff south wind might I remind you. Same thing may happen again with a rain/snow mix to start predawn in eastern areas transitioning to wet snow...where we go from there who knows man, very difficult.. Could change to rain or could snow like crazy and accumulate all the way to the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The Suny 12z MM5 at hour 36 nicely illustrates how the cold air is drawn in from the NE...it is practically cold enough for frozen precip. at the Benchmark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Also water temps have been warming the past couple weeks and are pretty much in the low-mid 40s. No...east of Montauk is 40 even with upper 30s just to the northeast where the fetch will be coming from. As far as water temp goes, this is about the absolute coldest time of year, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Here is my best guess at this point. Very difficult forecast and I expect to bust to some degree in a few places I'm sure. Discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Accumulation will probably be tough along the immediate coast in the daytime, but once the sun sets it will be much easier, and the 18z NAM gives NYC about 0.3'' QPF after the sun sets and temps drop below freezing. It also depends on how heavy the rates are because I've seen snow stick to the ground many times during the daytime with temps marginally above freezing when the rates are heavy enough. As some have pointed out though, the NAM has been running too cold with the temps. I agree with what the Euro printed out, which is temps around 35 for most of the storm. So I'm looking for non accumulating snow during the daylight hours, and then a small slushy accumulation tomorrow night. A dusting to an inch is a good call for the city, IMO. Of course north and west is a different story and several inches can fall. But temps are too borderline for areas near the coast. Having the 850 OC line to our south this time of year obviously does not mean temps will fall to freezing. Mid 30s looks about right to me for most of the storm, so it will take heavy snow to squeeze out a light slushy accumulation. Again though, I hope I'm wrong and we get more. You never know and March is such an unpredictable month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 No...east of Montauk is 40 even with upper 30s just to the northeast where the fetch will be coming from. As far as water temp goes, this is about the absolute coldest time of year, Yeah If it were January with ~50 degree temps I'd worry, I think most if not all of LI get in on this and does pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Snow growth is gonna be alot better up here then down in lower westchester & to compare western orange county to lower westechester in a spring storm is foolish.. What makes you think snow growth is going to be better? The NAM gives us the same amount of precipitation and we're both going to see decent snow growth with a 998mb low over the Delmarva and 850s of -3C. Boundary layer temperatures might inhibit accumulation for a few minutes here but will quickly drop near 32F as heavier banding enters the region. There are also plenty of areas in Westchester in the 400-600' elevation range, so we're not talking about the immediate coastal plain here. To compare them in a marginal spring storm would be foolish. But this isn't that marginal, honestly. Just because it's late March doesn't mean it has to be marginal. The synoptics dictate the temperature profile more than the time of year; we've seen far more borderline storms in January. People should stop looking at the calendar and start looking at the overwhelming consensus on global and mesoscale models that NYC is going to see a snowstorm with .75" or so of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LAMP guidance, I know people will bring up their reliability or lack thereof has temps. during the afternoon Wednesday in NYC and its environs in the upper 30's to near 40 degrees Fahrenheit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 What makes you think snow growth is going to be better? The NAM gives us the same amount of precipitation and we're both going to see decent snow growth with a 998mb low over the Delmarva and 850s of -3C. Boundary layer temperatures might inhibit accumulation for a few minutes here but will quickly drop near 32F as heavier banding enters the region. There are also plenty of areas in Westchester in the 400-600' elevation range, so we're not talking about the immediate coastal plain here. Im not talkin about "areas in Westchester"... Im talkin about your location. You sit right along the Hudson ( which has more of an influence then you think) and your 300-400' elevation is not as significant as you make it out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quick dumb question: what does QPF mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Im not talkin about "areas in Westchester"... Im talkin about your location. You sit right along the Hudson ( which has more of an influence then you think) and your 300-400' elevation is not as significant as you make it out to be. Going with NZ on this one...will be *very* surprised if anyone in Westchester sees anything other than snow out of this one...at least N of Route 287. <Realizes it cuts a mile or so N of D.F.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 What makes you think snow growth is going to be better? The NAM gives us the same amount of precipitation and we're both going to see decent snow growth with a 998mb low over the Delmarva and 850s of -3C. Boundary layer temperatures might inhibit accumulation for a few minutes here but will quickly drop near 32F as heavier banding enters the region. There are also plenty of areas in Westchester in the 400-600' elevation range, so we're not talking about the immediate coastal plain here. Honestly.. How much do you see falling in your neck of the woods? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Im not talkin about "areas in Westchester"... Im talkin about your location. You sit right along the Hudson ( which has more of an influence then you think) and your 300-400' elevation is not as significant as you make it out to be. I don't live right on the Hudson actually, it's not even walking distance from my house unless you're prepared for some exercise. I don't see how you could know where my house is so it seems silly to comment. You might say I'm making too much of being at 350', but I think you're making too much of being further to the NW. If temperatures are cold enough for everyone, which most of the models are indicating, it's just going to come down to who gets the heaviest banding, not whether you live in Westchester or Orange County. And I think the signal is for a heavy band to orient itself from NYC towards your area, so we should all be under pretty good snow growth/evaporational cooling/omega. I don't really see Westchester struggling to accumulate, especially at 400' elevation. Dewpoint is 28F here by the way and temperatures are falling towards 40F. You seem to think your being NW is so great, yet who's had more snow this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quick dumb question: what does QPF mean? Quantitative precip. forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Dew points are dropping nicely around the nyc metro, great news! Upstairs will be plenty cold enough, should be some great wet bulbing down that way tomorrow. Enjoy the snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Honestly.. How much do you see falling in your neck of the woods? I would forecast 4-8" for Dobbs Ferry. I think there will be a jackpot somewhere in Westchester/Putnam/Orange/Rockland that gets close to 12", but I am probably too near the coast for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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