Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Gfs 18z run it out to 30 hours looks be frozen in the city up until hr 28 or 29. Hour 30 looks to be rain from city south. A little cooler and further south with the low, also deepens it faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Definite south and cold bump on 18z GFS. Still warmer then all guidance but rgem. But positive sign it moved towards the overwhelming consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Which would hurt your theory of no accumulation with evap. cooling helping out. Its NOT my theory its Uptons theory - they are the one's saying little or no accuulations over most of the NYC Metro.....they are the PRO's not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Its NOT my theory its Uptons theory - they are the one's saying little or no accuulations over most of the NYC Metro.....they are the PRO's not me Using climo is not a good way to forecast for this storm, since this storm is anything but climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 So what's the thinking for start times? How long, if at all, until the roads get rotten? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Tomorrow is 23 March...late in the season...but not crazy late in the season. The 6 April 1982 blizzard was a full two weeks later on the calendar...though the respective synoptic setups clearly bare little resemblance. There is a fair chance the snow may have trouble sticking during the daytime...especially in urban areas and of course the farther south you go. Still, I think some climatologically favored areas have an excellent shot at picking up five to ten inches of heavy, wet snow over the next couple of days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think 3-5" is a better call for the city. Marginal cold temps, but with most models spitting out .7-1" of QPF, and the coastal transfer being the more robust precipitation shield, then 3-5" is not a bad call. Crazy how it's gonna snow tomorrow, I think that is enough to get people riled up. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those on the N. Shore of Long Island hearing Upton's current forecast of approximately one inch of snow there over the next 48 hours in for quite a surprise, IMO.... I agree, although I must admit that Uptons batting average is better than mine. But an inch seems too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still, I think some climatologically favored areas have an excellent shot at picking up five to ten inches of heavy, wet snow over the next couple of days... I think 3-5" is a better call for the city. Was referring to interior North Jersey, Rockland, Westchester, Fairfield Counties...I tend to agree with your call for NYC... good meeting you, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think most of the snow will be relegated to the higher terrain of NJ and up through the Catskills. I really don't see much for the city. Mid level drying may be an issue later in the day towards 00z or just after, especially across NJ. Of course if a heavy burst comes in or something like the NAM happens then all bets are off. Spring storms always have surprises. I haven't looked terribly hard for the NYC area, but those thoughts are on my mind. Gonna be tough south of I-80 and across the lower terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm going to be at KHPN for to pick up a friend from KLEB arriving flight at 6 p.m. Should be one heck of an interesting experience driving up the hutch and along 684. I'd appreciate the sun down scenario for any of the heavier accumulations. A time I wish the flight was going into KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Definite south and cold bump on 18z GFS. Still warmer then all guidance but rgem. But positive sign it moved towards the overwhelming consensus. GFS is caving to the consensus of other global and meso-scale models. I wouldn't be surprised if we see another adjustment south at 0z. Using climo is not a good way to forecast for this storm, since this storm is anything but climo. Yeah, we have an impressive double block developing so heights are very low compared to normal for late March. And as William said, it's only March 24th; we've seen snow accumulate to the tune of 10" two full weeks later in NYC. We had the twin Nor'easters in March 2004 around the equinox, one of which dealt like 6" to NYC. Even without a massive cut-off coastal low, NYC can still reasonably expect to get some accumulations at this time of year. What's really going to make the difference is the intensity of the banding but right now from Central Park to NE NJ to SE NY looks like a sweet spot. I'd probably go with 3-5" for NYC and 4-8" in the elevated NW suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Amazing seeing tornado warnings in Iowa today with the same system bringing us snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL people on another forum that refuse to believe that NYC can see accumulating snow are saying the "GFS trended very slightly colder." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL people on another forum that refuse to believe that NYC can see accumulating snow are saying the "GFS trended very slightly colder." keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like Mt. Holly is in sync with Upton now.. http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Snow maps showing a fair amount of discontinuity between Philly and NYC offices, with amounts of ~2" in northern Middlesex County (Philly), but less than 1" in Union County, directly to my north, and <1" in SI, to my NE (both from Upton). Similar discrepancies as one moves north, between Somerset/Morris and Union/Essex Counties. Anyone from the NWS care to comment? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Snow maps showing a fair amount of discontinuity between Philly and NYC offices, with amounts of ~2" in northern Middlesex County (Philly), but less than 1" in Union County, directly to my north, and <1" in SI, to my NE (both from Upton). Similar discrepancies as one moves north, between Somerset/Morris and Union/Essex Counties. Anyone from the NWS care to comment? http://www.erh.noaa....lSnow/index.php http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php You have got to be kidding me... 1" isnt going to make a difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Gefs bumped south again. 850 line south of NYC now. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep12036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those snow maps seem like a total joke. 0.5" accumulation in Central Park and only 2.5" here? This is with all the models agreeing on about .75"+ QPF with the vast majority falling as snow....in order to realize the high QPF most models are showing, we're going to see some heavy bands of snow working through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, which means it will stick as the precipitation rates go up and sun angle starts to decline. Even in NYC, dewpoints are running around 28F so this is a great scenario for wet-bulbing as N winds continue to funnel cold dry air into the metro region. I think someone from the NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially to residents of LI's North Shore, North-Central NJ, and SE NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow Further south than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those snow maps seem like a total joke. 0.5" accumulation in Central Park and only 2.5" here? This is with all the models agreeing on about .75"+ QPF with the vast majority falling as snow....in order to realize the high QPF most models are showing, we're going to see some heavy bands of snow working through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, which means it will stick as the precipitation rates go up and sun angle starts to decline. Even in NYC, dewpoints are running around 28F so this is a great scenario for wet-bulbing as N winds continue to funnel cold dry air into the metro region. I think someone from the NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially to residents of LI's North Shore, North-Central NJ, and SE NY. BEST post all day, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You have got to be kidding me... 1" isnt going to make a difference.. lol there's a pretty big difference between Mt. Holly's 3-4 inch forecast for Somerset and Morris counties and Upton's 0.6 inch forecast for the counties just to the east (Union, Essex). I can't believe Upton is only forecasting half an inch of snow for the city and NE NJ. What are they basing this on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those snow maps seem like a total joke. 0.5" accumulation in Central Park and only 2.5" here? This is with all the models agreeing on about .75"+ QPF with the vast majority falling as snow....in order to realize the high QPF most models are showing, we're going to see some heavy bands of snow working through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, which means it will stick as the precipitation rates go up and sun angle starts to decline. Even in NYC, dewpoints are running around 28F so this is a great scenario for wet-bulbing as N winds continue to funnel cold dry air into the metro region. I think someone from the NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially to residents of LI's North Shore, North-Central NJ, and SE NY. Whats wrong with 2.5" for lower westchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those snow maps seem like a total joke. 0.5" accumulation in Central Park and only 2.5" here? This is with all the models agreeing on about .75"+ QPF with the vast majority falling as snow....in order to realize the high QPF most models are showing, we're going to see some heavy bands of snow working through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, which means it will stick as the precipitation rates go up and sun angle starts to decline. Even in NYC, dewpoints are running around 28F so this is a great scenario for wet-bulbing as N winds continue to funnel cold dry air into the metro region. I think someone from the NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially to residents of LI's North Shore, North-Central NJ, and SE NY. Unless there is a major change with the 0z runs, I think Upton will revise upwards with their morning update...though one can never say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 lol there's a pretty big difference between Mt. Holly's 3-4 inch forecast for Somerset and Morris counties and Upton's 0.6 inch forecast for the counties just to the east (Union, Essex). Well Mt Holly was high to begin with so im sure you will them to continue the down trend later this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 BEST post all day, I agree. Upton actually changed my forecast at 4pm to have a mix of rain/snow tonight and tomorrow, whereas this morning the Dobbs Ferry point-and-click had a high of 35F with all snow. Their forecast has trended warmer even with the warmest model, the GFS, trending much colder and keeping the region in moderate snow for most of the event. The NAM, RGEM, GEFS and ECM are all in agreement that NYC metro receives .75" QPF as snow, and yet they are calling for a mix with minimal accumulations? I just feel as if we haven't dealt with a late-season storm for a while so people are forgetting it can snow heavily here in late March. Too much is being made of climo instead of synoptics and model data, which are increasingly in favor of a major snowstorm especially in the elevated suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Precip, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those snow maps seem like a total joke. 0.5" accumulation in Central Park and only 2.5" here? This is with all the models agreeing on about .75"+ QPF with the vast majority falling as snow....in order to realize the high QPF most models are showing, we're going to see some heavy bands of snow working through the area tomorrow afternoon and evening, which means it will stick as the precipitation rates go up and sun angle starts to decline. Even in NYC, dewpoints are running around 28F so this is a great scenario for wet-bulbing as N winds continue to funnel cold dry air into the metro region. I think someone from the NWS is going to have a lot of explaining to do, especially to residents of LI's North Shore, North-Central NJ, and SE NY. yeah 5-10" in NW jersey with < 1" in NE jersey cmon now. NW areas will see more but i doubt the gradient is that sharp given the model data and analysis you just gave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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