Snow_Miser Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM 36 Precip Totals. It is still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 7-14"?? That is hardly a prediction that is "looking great." The lower end should have no trouble verifying somewhere in NNJ/SE NY/SW CT....if we see something like the NAM/GEM where the coastal transfer really cranks and we have a more defined 850mb low, then the higher end could also be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 guys stop bickering about how much is going to fall, who's being a weenie, etc. Its getting old. On a side note and to change to subject...what I would pay to have this 500mb set-up in the heart of winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Just for the record, I did state earlier that the 7-14" was preliminary and that I thought 4-8" was a better revised forecast. Looking at the NAM makes my mouth water though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Accu snow maps and Raleigh snow maps both have 6"+ of accumulation into NYC. North and West, close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 guys stop bickering about how much is going to fall, who's being a weenie, etc. Its getting old. On a side note and to change to subject...what I would pay to have this 500mb set-up in the heart of winter... It's OK...we will still get a MECS out of it in late March Think positive....we have a beautiful west-based NAO block, 50/50 low well anchored, -12C 850s. We are in the game for a storm Sunday or perhaps the bigger coastal that the 12z ECM shows at 174 hours, which eventually bombs to 972mb off of New Jersey, but too far offshore for us verbatim. Plenty of time to work on these two threats. I'm very enthusiastic about us getting a warning-criteria snowfall tomorrow and then another snowfall on 3/27 or 3/30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ..Lighten up pal, he is just making his own prediction. Upton is just in conservative mood "because it's late March." What a BS way to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The way I see it, for coastal sections and NYC is that tomorrow during the day, it will snow and only slushy accumulations will occur. And then as sun lowers, and 2nd part of storm comes in, from developing coastal, thats when coastal areas might get a couple of inches of actual accumlations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Accu snow maps and Raleigh snow maps both have 6"+ of accumulation into NYC. North and West, close to a foot. Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is definitely a grass and cars event until/unless the heavy snow occurs overnight. The NAM has been too cold with surface temperatures and there is no denying that. Increasing them by a few degrees would be smart in this scenario. I still like 1-3" in the city and surrounding areas, and 3-6" in higher elevations. It will take a lot to convince me that anybody is going to get 7-14" out of this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... How many times are you going to say this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is definitely a grass and cars event until/unless the heavy snow occurs overnight. The NAM has been too cold with surface temperatures and there is no denying that. Increasing them by a few degrees would be smart in this scenario. I still like 1-3" in the city and surrounding areas, and 3-6" in higher elevations. It will take a lot to convince me that anybody is going to get 7-14" out of this event. This seems to be the most reasonable approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is definitely a grass and cars event until/unless the heavy snow occurs overnight. The NAM has been too cold with surface temperatures and there is no denying that. Increasing them by a few degrees would be smart in this scenario. I still like 1-3" in the city and surrounding areas, and 3-6" in higher elevations. It will take a lot to convince me that anybody is going to get 7-14" out of this event. agree for the most part, but I was shocked the other day how quickly things started to accumulate in a much more marginal setup. Additionally, the best part of this storm will be at night, so not sure how much loss we suffer on actual accumulations. With an 850 low position of the NAM/UKMET/GGEM tomorrow night, its going to fall and stick everywhere except maybe downtown Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... Upton is calling for 3"-4" in my part of Queens. But either way, if the 2nd part of the system occurs at night, like NAM, UKIE, ARW, NMM, EURO and GGEM have showing, the coast will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... Ok we get the point. Why don't you drive out there and cheer them on? Anyway I think the city will get 2-4 primarily for the second batch once the sun goes down, really depends on how much precip there is after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is definitely a grass and cars event until/unless the heavy snow occurs overnight. The NAM has been too cold with surface temperatures and there is no denying that. Increasing them by a few degrees would be smart in this scenario. I still like 1-3" in the city and surrounding areas, and 3-6" in higher elevations. It will take a lot to convince me that anybody is going to get 7-14" out of this event. Agree for the most part. However, as Trials posted, if that 2nd part comes in as robust as nam, euro, ukie, ggem, arw, nmm, mm5 have it, NYC will see more then that. Especially, that its to occur late evening into the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The sorry thing about NEG NAO is that his first post on this thread was his most accurate one. All downhill from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... I hope your right, snow this time of year would be a disaster. Not only that but it would probably last a long time which is really depressing in the springtime. Were just over one week away from April, hopefully this pattern will break soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Pretty good call by Upton as of now... ( 5-9") Wednesday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 35. East wind between 3 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 26. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ryan (CT RAIN) pointed out the afd from okx, some interesting points to ponder, on why accumulations might be held down and its not sun angles or bl temps, but minimal moisture possibly in the snow growth region and mid level drying, just something to think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quick look at the 18Z RGEM shows no changes from its 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton has the right idea with these systems IMO - no accumulation NYC metro tomorrow and a miss Sunday..... a man with Spring on his mind..you know at this time of year you take what you can get..it's just icing on the cake..the winter was great..Ready for opening day next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those on the N. Shore of Long Island hearing Upton's current forecast of approximately one inch of snow there over the next 48 hours in for quite a surprise, IMO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Alot of people are going to be in for quite the suprise in NE NJ IMO. The NAM may be too cold John but it has some support from other models. Am I not allowed to revise my forecasted totals? Im going with 4-8" now 20 miles west of NYC and 7-10 for Western Passaic and Orange counties in the highest elevations. For the last time 7-14" was a first call. Would not be shocked to see my first call verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those on the N. Shore of Long Island hearing Upton's current forecast of approximately one inch of snow there over the next 48 hours in for quite a surprise, IMO.... Agreed this will surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Dew points are dropping at Newark http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2011/3/22/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thru 12, gfs south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Dew points are dropping at Newark http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA Which would hurt your theory of no accumulation with evap. cooling helping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is definitely a grass and cars event until/unless the heavy snow occurs overnight. The NAM has been too cold with surface temperatures and there is no denying that. Increasing them by a few degrees would be smart in this scenario. I still like 1-3" in the city and surrounding areas, and 3-6" in higher elevations. It will take a lot to convince me that anybody is going to get 7-14" out of this event. This is tough. The euro doesnt bring us much precip at all after 7PM tomorrow, while the nam/ukmet get us pretty good still...thats when we can do the most damage obviously..Im not sure what the city can do during the day tomorrow...these storms are soooo difficult, it will all depend on precip intensity. I would not be surprised if we saw a scenario like april 2003 unfold here tomorrow,. but i have little confidence at all here. I like the 1-3, though i think the higher elevations in nw Jers and Orange County, NY stand a chance at 8" all together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Gfs 18z run it out to 30 hours looks be frozen in the city up until hr 28 or 29. Hour 30 looks to be rain from city south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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