SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM very UKMET like. Has bumped liquid to .75 to 1 inch across the area and is still cold. EDIT: Through 36 hours over an inch fromt the city nw to se in a line up through NJ PA and NY The 18Z NAM the day before an event almost always has very high precip totals...same as the 06Z run tonight will probably come in very dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM very UKMET like. Has bumped liquid to .75 to 1 inch across the area and is still cold. EDIT: Through 36 hours over an inch fromt the city nw to se in a line up through NJ PA and NY if the NAM is right then it looks like upton busts majorly for the areas just N and W. Obv it could just be one of those runs though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM very UKMET like. Has bumped liquid to .75 to 1 inch across the area and is still cold. EDIT: Through 36 hours over an inch fromt the city nw to se in a line up through NJ PA and NY I'm starting to think the NW suburbs need a warning, actually. Models are consistently showing over .75" QPF with temperatures cold enough for all snow. There's clearly a signal for some banding behind that coastal as well. Dobbs Ferry is under a WWA as of 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM very UKMET like. Has bumped liquid to .75 to 1 inch across the area and is still cold. EDIT: Through 36 hours over an inch fromt the city nw to se in a line up through NJ PA and NY A significant shift north from 12z...either the northern trend has begun or the NAM and GFS are honing in on a solution that's in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The height of the storm around here looks to be in the hr 24-30 time frame. During that time, the 850mb freezing line hangs around central Jersey. Aren't ratios based off of 850 temps? If so, I'm havng a hard time understanding why 6:1 - 8:1 ratios are what most people on here are thinking. 10 : 1 seems more reasonable to me, especially well west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm starting to think the NW suburbs need a warning, actually. Models are consistently showing over .75" QPF with temperatures cold enough for all snow. There's clearly a signal for some banding behind that coastal as well. Dobbs Ferry is under a WWA as of 4pm. I could see 4-5" on top of Mt. Zucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 A significant shift north from 12z...either the northern trend has begun or the NAM and GFS are honing in on a solution that's in between the two. the slp has not shifted much, the precip shield has. Temps are very cold. North trend is relative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Significant shift north on NAM? No. NAM is 1"-1.25" of qpf for NYC. Accuweather pro maps, show it all snow for NYC and LI. NAM is a very big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Upton is calling for 1"-3" for City and LI. This willl be mainly on non - pavement surfaces around NYC metro - nice to look at falling but no travel problems at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 18Z NAM the day before an event almost always has very high precip totals...same as the 06Z run tonight will probably come in very dry. its in line with ggem, ukmet, and euro to some extent, maybe a little wet, but not my much. GGEM is 20 mm, UKMET is .8, euro is .70 ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I could see 4-5" on top of Mt. Zucker I could see more, and I'm usually the conservative one. What is this, opposite day or something? I think some areas in SW CT or Westchester/Putnam/Rockland will see 8-12". Upton is just in conservative mood "because it's late March." What a BS way to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 15z eta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 850mb temps look to have shifted north on 18z NAM from 12z, but surprisingly the surface temps look slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think some areas in SW CT or Westchester/Putnam/Rockland will see 8-12". agreed on this part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I definitely agree on a couple major points people have brought up; -marginal temps in later winter early spring are not very good for accumulating snow -some portion (1/3-1/2) of the QPF falls during daylight hours, thus it will have a hard time accumulating unless precip is heavy Both of these points considered, however, it still seems like this will be an advisory event for most (2-4/5) and a warning event for inland areas. GGEM/EURO/UK/NAM all show at least some accumulating snow (2+) for even areas close to the coast. I think as we get closer if trends continue in the direction of colder/more qpf then we could be looking at upton upgrading to advisories and warnings tomorrow morning. Its definitely a tough call and its been a while since we've seen a late season storm. I don't even know how to react since I'm already in spring mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I could see more, and I'm usually the conservative one. What is this, opposite day or something? I think some areas in SW CT or Westchester/Putnam/Rockland will see 8-12". Upton is just in conservative mood "because it's late March." What a BS way to forecast. wow ballsy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I could see more, and I'm usually the conservative one. What is this, opposite day or something? I think some areas in SW CT or Westchester/Putnam/Rockland will see 8-12". Upton is just in conservative mood "because it's late March." What a BS way to forecast. Your the reason why I dont post here anymore. First time I poke my head in here in months and I see this. Great job mods once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 850mb temps look to have shifted north on 18z NAM from 12z, but surprisingly the surface temps look slightly cooler. make sure you don't chicken out, I'll be relying on your measurement when I get 7" so that it can be authenticated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 .50"+ of precip in only 6 hours for NYC from 8pm tomorrow night until 2am Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Your the reason why I dont post here anymore. First time I poke my head in here in months and I see this. Great job mods once again. ..Lighten up pal, he is just making his own prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 .50"+ of precip in only 6 hours for NYC from 8pm tomorrow night until 2am Thursday. nam now showing the stronger 850 like the UKMET and GGEM. When the 850 transfers to the coast, its going to rip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 make sure you don't chicken out, I'll be relying on your measurement when I get 7" so that it can be authenticated. You're only about 30 minutes north of me on 287. I don't think the roads will be a porblem given the surface temps. The real problems on the roads will be up around the hills near Flanders...that's IF the NAM verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ..Lighten up pal, he is just making his own prediction. People are not allowed to disagree with the NWS here? All I'm saying is they're relying too much on climo. Same as how Monday morning was all rain according to the NWS and yet the NW suburbs ended up with 1-3". Conservative forecasting is good except when there's a clear reason to go against it. And all the models, besides the GFS, show most areas receiving a warning-criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hate to say I told you so, but you could just see how the models began to swing towards the colder solutions starting with yesterday's 12z runs. A few have bumped north but I think it's becoming pretty clear that the warmer solutions are in the minority of the solution camp at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hate to say I told you so, but you could just see how the models began to swing towards the colder solutions starting with yesterday's 12z runs. A few have bumped north but I think it's becoming pretty clear that the warmer solutions are in the minority of the solution camp at this time. classic weenie mistake - claiming victory before the event has even started. This is why y'all get burned so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think areas N and W of the city, especially those with elevation might see a moderate snowfall out of this. I think these areas stand the best chance of seeing temps supportive of accumulating snow. I am worried about a warm layer at 700. Surface temperatures will initially be warmer, before cooling off. This is in response to a dominant primary associated with a warm southerly wind before a coastal low takes over and north winds dominate and cool the column. I express caution with predicting large amounts in these setups because often times lots of snow accumulation is inhibited by initial melting. Still areas N and W of the city, specifically those residing N of 78 and W of 287 stand the best chance at seeing 3-7 inches of snow. The higher end of the range amounts will be primarily confined to this area and locations with elevation. I still only believe 1-3 inches of snow will fall in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hate to say I told you so, but you could just see how the models began to swing towards the colder solutions starting with yesterday's 12z runs. A few have bumped north but I think it's becoming pretty clear that the warmer solutions are in the minority of the solution camp at this time. your post right there could be the kiss of death, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 your post right there could be the kiss of death, thanks His prediction is looking great right now. NNJ is in the jackpot zone for this event as models stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 His prediction is looking great right now. NNJ is in the jackpot zone for this event as models stand. 7-14"?? That is hardly a prediction that is "looking great." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 His prediction is looking great right now. NNJ is in the jackpot zone for this event as models stand. prediction for snow or his prediction for 7-14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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