ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agree, I'd probably lean towards the NAM's surface temps (although those are sometimes slightly too cold). I'm thinking NYC will be around 33-34F most of the storm, maybe briefly down to 32F late Wednesday night if heavier bands move through. Either way, GFS is clearly on its own here. Should be interesting to see when (if) it caves at 18z. Sometimes GFS never caves. Remember on Jan. 26-27, it was DEAD wrong with surface track and never gave up. Even 6 hours before the storm and WHILE storm was occuring, it refused to correct itself. Strange model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 MM5 is in the Nam's camp. It looks nothing like the GFS. MM5 is always a little too far south at this stage. Wait until tonight at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Precip. What's the link to this site again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The problem with this event being much for the coast is there is no real cranked coastal or likelihood of intense precip rates like a 3/19/99 or 4/6/82...therefore I don't anticipate much right now outside of the narrow areas where the heavier banding occurs and right now the models don't seem to agree on exactly where that is...this is a case where NYC could see more snow than Bridgeport or Danbury if the heavier area of precip moves directly over them..these late season events can produce the heaviest amounts in unexpected locations for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 What's the link to this site again? I know the link to the site, but didn't know where to find 48hr total QPF like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I know the link to the site, but didn't know where to find 48hr total QPF like that. Domain 1 = East Category 1 = QPF_ Images 1 = Total_pcpn Hours 1 = 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I know the link to the site, but didn't know where to find 48hr total QPF like that. He gets it from a website which is incredibly hard to navigate, I think I lost the link again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Domain 1 = East Category 1 = QPF_ Images 1 = Total_pcpn Hours 1 = 48 Maybe I don't know the link...is it meteocentre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 He gets it from a website which is incredibly hard to navigate, I think I lost the link again. Isnt this it? http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=na And here is the whole site that has all models. The above is the regional gem (rgem) http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agree, I'd probably lean towards the NAM's surface temps (although those are sometimes slightly too cold). Can't agree here. The past month or so, the NAM's surface temperatures have been way too cold regardless of the situation. Obviously this is especially magnified during warmer days. It was 13 degrees too cold when we hit the 60s a few weeks ago, and 10 degrees too cold when we hit 80 the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Go to: http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html Scroll down to: Vizaweb: web access to CMC products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Isnt this it? http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=na And here is the whole site that has all models. The above is the regional gem (rgem) http://meteocentre.c...n=00&mod=gemreg I saw that and at first glance the QPF looked different but that might be it. I thought the sector was more high res, but maybe he just zoomed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I saw that and at first glance the QPF looked different but that might be it. I thought the sector was more high res, but maybe he just zoomed in. Its the same maps. He has higher resolution but the links I posted have the same maps. Here is the snow map. Same as his: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Go to: http://meteocentre.com/home_e.html Scroll down to: Vizaweb: web access to CMC products. I thought you needed a password for that. I used to have one for that site, but haven't used it in about 2 yrs. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If your hoping for the NAM to verify, you should take a look at soundings. Many show no saturation in the snow growth zone until after 3z Thursday. By that time, lift is rather weak and precip should be light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 HRRR total snowfall through 7Z Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Notice how many of those records are from the late 1800s and early 1900s. In fact, NYC has never gotten below 20F on or after Mar 26, since 1924. Here are some of the April records. The record for 4/3 is the only one that I could see being challenged in this cold outbreak. 4/1 12 (1923) 4/2 22 (1919) 4/3 24 (1954) 4/4 20 (1874) 4/5 21 (1881) 4/6 21 (1982) 4/7 21 (1982) 4/8 25 (1982) 4/9 25 (1977) 4/10 28 (1997) I agree anything lower than the 20s in the city would be pushing into record territory on some of those days. I've been watching this cold potential for a few days and this may/should be the bigger story through next Monday. Record lows NYC end of march 3/26 20 (1960) 3/27 20 (1894) 3/28 13 (1923) 3/29 10 (1923) 3/30 16 (1887) 3/31 14 (1923) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The NAM 2m temps verified 3-5F too high on temps on Mon, and were very close to the actual temps today, perhaps because Mon was cloudy all day and today had a broken to overcast stratocumulus deck most of the day. Can't agree here. The past month or so, the NAM's surface temperatures have been way too cold regardless of the situation. Obviously this is especially magnified during warmer days. It was 13 degrees too cold when we hit the 60s a few weeks ago, and 10 degrees too cold when we hit 80 the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Man euro is cold. Sunday also starts in the low 20's. I doubt the city gets that cold. Temps that cold in Manhattan this time of year are quite rare in recent years (temps in the teens are almost unheard of). Let's look at the records first: Mar 25 - 13 F (1878) Mar 26 - 20 F (1960) Mar 27 - 20 F (1894) Now recent years from 1996... Mar 25 1996: 44 F 1997: 38 F 1998: 34 F 1999: 41 F 2000: 30 F 2001: 30 F 2002: 36 F 2003: 43 F 2004: 44 F 2005: 39 F 2006: 38 F 2007: 38 F 2008: 31 F 2009: 35 F 2010: 48 F Mar 26 1996: 50 F 1997: 44 F 1998: 40 F 1999: 33 F 2000: 43 F 2001: 27 F 2002: 37 F 2003: 45 F 2004: 45 F 2005: 37 F 2006: 37 F 2007: 39 F 2008: 43 F 2009: 42 F 2010: 34 F Mar 27 1996: 28 F 1997: 38 F 1998: 57 F 1999: 37 F 2000: 34 F 2001: 24 F 2002: 37 F 2003: 42 F 2004: 51 F 2005: 37 F 2006: 37 F 2007: 50 F 2008: 38 F 2009: 44 F 2010: 29 F So we have only SEVEN times since 1996 that the temp has gone even below freezing in the city on these three days (out of a possible 45). Only 4 of those times did it get below 30, and only once below 25. Never did it get below 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The NAM 2m temps verified 3-5F too high on temps on Mon, and were very close to the actual temps today, perhaps because Mon was cloudy all day and today had a broken to overcast stratocumulus deck most of the day. Here's something that would be cool to have: a spreadsheet of snow melting rate per hour for given surfaces (asphalt, concrete, grass, metal, etc.) at a few surface temps around 32F for given sun angle (preferably converted to date and time of day, so it doesn't have to be figured out); I guess cloud cover is a variable, but if it's snowing I wonder if it's safe to assume that's a relative constant. People always talk about the impact of sun angle for snow melting rate in borderline temps during daylight hours close to spring, but does anyone actually know what the increase in melting rate is? If I had to guess, it's probably in the range of 0.25-0.50" per hour melting rate at midday in late March at 32F surface temp on asphalt, as I've seen snow of moderate intensity (0.25-0.5" per hour) fail to accumulate on asphalt in those conditions. I'd also guess it's probably <0.10" per hour for all the same conditions in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Warnings and advisories issued for the interior, but I think we can see warning criteria even in the advisory areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NWS playing it conservative, now warnings for Sussex, Western Passaic Counties and Orange County. Advisories for the next tier below that. Warnings also for the northern Poconos and advisories for the southern Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 upton going with more of an elevation and interior event...makes sense given the time of year and recent warmth which will make it hard to accumulate on paved surfaces etc...(Today was 49 here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 upton going with more of an elevation and interior event...makes sense given the time of year and recent warmth which will make it hard to accumulate on paved surfaces etc...(Today was 49 here) It accumulated here yesterday morning including on 287 until I got to about Mahwah. 17 was farily clear. I think people are putting too much weight on past warmth, the temperatures have cooled off quite a bit from the record warmth last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 upton going with more of an elevation and interior event...makes sense given the time of year and recent warmth which will make it hard to accumulate on paved surfaces etc...(Today was 49 here) Upton is calling for 1"-3" for City and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It accumulated here yesterday morning including on 287 until I got to about Mahwah. 17 was farily clear. I think people are putting too much weight on past warmth, the temperatures have cooled off quite a bit from the record warmth last week. agree-out there-sure, but let's say city, LI and places within 15 miles of the city-not going to see much along with coastal CT. If we're lucky, on the grass and colder surfaces...after sunset, if there's much left QPF wise, then it's a different story.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Mt. Holly going with an advisory for 3-7" here. I guess all in all not a bad idea since we will most likely fall shy of warning criteria in a majority of the county, but this could be one of those scearios where they upgrade to warnings as the storm is underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Looks like the NAM is holding serve...out to 30hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 upton going with more of an elevation and interior event...makes sense given the time of year and recent warmth which will make it hard to accumulate on paved surfaces etc...(Today was 49 here) Makes sense. Been in the low 50s around here (park is at 49 right now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18Z NAM very UKMET like. Has bumped liquid to .75 to 1 inch across the area and is still cold. EDIT: Through 36 hours over an inch fromt the city nw to se in a line up through NJ PA and NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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