ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Another .17" from 8pm Wednesday thru 2am Thrusday. .69" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 qpf is up now on the ec to .75+ for Trenton to Asbury Park north to Rt. 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 .75" thru Thursday 12z. 850's never go above for NYC and surface is 33-36. Looks like a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Andover NJ has .90 total and .85 for Caldwell and .84 for Morristown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM looks like what, 5-10 mm for the city? So that'd be 0.2-0.4 water equiv, or with 6-8:1 ratios, 1-3 in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If I had to make a forecast: Winter Storm Watches for all interior areas. 1" - 3" for coastal locations near NYC and on colder surfaces only as ground temps. will clearly be a problem unless the precip. comes down heavy at times, which at some point it probably will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro definately in the ukmet/ggem camp, north of the nam, south of the rgem, south of the sref mean, and way south of the GFS. GFS odd man out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ARW and NMM never have the 850 temps get above 0. both are impressive for the nyc metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro ends with .83" for NYC. 850's stay below the entire time. Surface fluctuates from 34-36. Long duration event. Starts Wednesday 6amish and lasts thru Thursday 2pmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Aside from the snow, we are really piling on our precip totals for the month. Right now KNYC is at 5.09 in for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro ends with .83" for NYC. 850's stay below the entire time. Surface fluctuates from 34-36. Long duration event. Starts Wednesday 6amish and lasts thru Thursday 2pmish. woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro has surface temps of 19 degrees Friday at 7am. And again Saturday has surface temps in the lower 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro ends with .83" for NYC. 850's stay below the entire time. Surface fluctuates from 34-36. Long duration event. Starts Wednesday 6amish and lasts thru Thursday 2pmish. I'm hoping for a nice, non-accumulating steady light/mod snow in the city. 35 and rain will make me want to jump in front of a subway train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro ends with .83" for NYC. 850's stay below the entire time. Surface fluctuates from 34-36. Long duration event. Starts Wednesday 6amish and lasts thru Thursday 2pmish. 32 hour event? that will not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 32 hour event? that will not happen Some of its from the system moving across the country...then when the costal takes over it throws preciep back......so there is breaks prob between the two main batches......if you look at a piece of guidence you would understand this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro has surface temps of 19 degrees Friday at 7am. And again Saturday has surface temps in the lower 20's. Man euro is cold. Sunday also starts in the low 20's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Surface of 32-34 can accumulate on roads w/ mod to hvy snow, but 34-36 is basically a grass event. In fact this may be an event where road impacts are contained outside of NYC, since it will be very difficult to stick, assuming those sfc temps verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Surface of 32-34 can accumulate on roads w/ mod to hvy snow, but 34-36 is basically a grass event. In fact this may be an event where road impacts are contained outside of NYC, since it will be very difficult to stick, assuming those sfc temps verify. While I am the first to cheer on chaos, we saw a lot of road accumulation this year and plenty of havoc. This snow, for the immediate City on south, will be a grass and tree event till night time but will still be very pretty to watch. The end of the storm as the 850 starts to crank should bring hazardous road conditions to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Doesn't the Euro typically have a warm bias? I'm not saying that's the case here but I've heard it mentioned before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Some of its from the system moving across the country...then when the costal takes over it throws preciep back......so there is breaks prob between the two main batches......if you look at a piece of guidence you would understand this. Exactly. Euro now has the 2 part storm that JCONSOR has been alluding to all day. The overrunning stuff is early tomorrow morning. And then the coastal precip is tomorrow afternoon and night. GREAT sign to see the euro have this. Better chance to accumulate with the 2nd part of the storm, as the maximum daytime effects are over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Doesn't the Euro typically have a warm bias? I'm not saying that's the case here but I've heard it mentioned before. Even the surface isnt that warm on euro. Its running 34-36 for NYC and 32-34 for HPN area and NWNJ. For the euro, that is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro as is is probably a wet snow event for NYC and coast, accumulating on grass and other cold spots. And as Trials said, once the maximum heating is over, around 5pm, it will start to accumulate on pavement and once night falls, on some roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The cold on euro is nuts. It has low temps in the upper teens and lower 20's on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with highs in the 30's on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agreed - probably unlikely it will stick to the roads in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Bronx and all but NE Queens, unless there is a burst of heavier snow at night. However, the Euro has a bias of being slightly too warm on sfc temps, esp. in events where there is a strong high to the N/NW. Surface of 32-34 can accumulate on roads w/ mod to hvy snow, but 34-36 is basically a grass event. In fact this may be an event where road impacts are contained outside of NYC, since it will be very difficult to stick, assuming those sfc temps verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those low temps don't factor in the NYC heat island. I would be very surprised if NYC gets below 25F at any point in the next week. I can see upper teens/low 20s in suburban areas, esp. on nights where the wind diminishes (Fri night looks like a good candidate at this point). The cold on euro is nuts. It has low temps in the upper teens and lower 20's on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday with highs in the 30's on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 MM5 is in the Nam's camp. It looks nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hope you enjoy the 40 and rain we'll be getting for the next couple weeks. Unless you live way outside the city and have some elevation, I doubt there will be much in the way of accumulating snow. Sorry. April is just over one week away. Chances of accumulating snow in the immediate NYC metro decrease exponentially by the day. thats not the point, dood! this is a discussion thread about this potential event. you are putting WAY TOO MUCH emotions into this. do i want it to be 70 and sunny? yes. but I am not gonna go into a thread like this and try to drill my FEELINGS into this and get worked up over anyone that wants to enjoy the snow. get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agreed - probably unlikely it will stick to the roads in Manhattan, Brooklyn, Bronx and all but NE Queens, unless there is a burst of heavier snow at night. However, the Euro has a bias of being slightly too warm on sfc temps, esp. in events where there is a strong high to the N/NW. Agree, I'd probably lean towards the NAM's surface temps (although those are sometimes slightly too cold). I'm thinking NYC will be around 33-34F most of the storm, maybe briefly down to 32F late Wednesday night if heavier bands move through. Either way, GFS is clearly on its own here. Should be interesting to see when (if) it caves at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Those low temps don't factor in the NYC heat island. I would be very surprised if NYC gets below 25F at any point in the next week. I can see upper teens/low 20s in suburban areas, esp. on nights where the wind diminishes (Fri night looks like a good candidate at this point). I agree anything lower than the 20s in the city would be pushing into record territory on some of those days. I've been watching this cold potential for a few days and this may/should be the bigger story through next Monday. Record lows NYC end of march 3/26 20 (1960) 3/27 20 (1894) 3/28 13 (1923) 3/29 10 (1923) 3/30 16 (1887) 3/31 14 (1923) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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