IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hardly you ever add anything to a discussion. if you want 70s theres a spring discussion somewhere around here. amen....I don't think I've ever seen someone hate on a potential snow threat as much as he has this week. I wonder what he will be doing next week when the Big Daddy talks continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hardly you ever add anything to a discussion. if you want 70s theres a spring discussion somewhere around here. I hope you enjoy the 40 and rain we'll be getting for the next couple weeks. Unless you live way outside the city and have some elevation, I doubt there will be much in the way of accumulating snow. Sorry. April is just over one week away. Chances of accumulating snow in the immediate NYC metro decrease exponentially by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The GFS is extremely warm. Usually in the situations where the NAM and GFS differ extremely, the GFS is right. The GFS can often place too much precipitation northward into confluence because of its low resolution, but I don't think it does the same thing with the position of the surface low, or temperatures. The NAM being a mesoscale model might make it extremely susceptible to over-do dynamic cooling. Also, sometimes its insane dynamics seem to shunt sfc lows southward. The best chance for snow flakes flying might simply be very late overnight tonight and tomorrow morning--after that, the mid-level WAA might simply be too strong. Unless the NAM is right, of course. The Euro becomes really important now. I've always been more excited about the threats after this one, personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I hope you enjoy the 40 and rain we'll be getting for the next couple weeks. Unless you live way outside the city and have some elevation, I doubt there will be much in the way of accumulating snow. Sorry. April is just over one week away. Chances of accumulating snow in the immediate NYC metro decrease exponentially by the day. The point is that nobody is going to be enjoying 40s and rain obviously. And with that being the other alternative in this pattern of storms, why not just root for some snow while it is still possible. (Even if the odds are increasingly against it with each passing day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The point is that nobody is going to be enjoying 40s and rain obviously. And with that being the other alternative in this pattern of storms, why not just root for some snow while it is still possible. (Even if the odds are increasingly against it with each passing day) Because last winter I had 7 ft of snow and this winter I've had 5 ft, and that is quite enough. Plus it is pretty unlikely the city sees anything that accumulates (more than an inch or two). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still suspect the GFS is driving the 850 low too far north into the confluence and is having trouble with the redevelopment. Truth probably lies safely between the gfs and nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still suspect the GFS is driving the 850 low too far north into the confluence and is having trouble with the redevelopment. Truth probably lies safely between the gfs and nam. Agree. Use a compromise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z Ukie says the GFS is on crack. Looks a lot like the Nam. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011032212®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F2=none&C1=hght&VEC=none&F1=p06i&C2=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 appears UKMET is in the NAM camp. Can't see the precip between 36 and 42 but the surface low position is south of the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 850 low on the ukmet at 850 is ideal for the nyc metro area, south of the gfs too just a little different from the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The model spread this far out is comical...makes you wonder how a forecast can ever be accuarate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL this is ridiculous. The Ukie is a bit warmer than the NAM, but it's certainly closer to the NAM than the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL this is ridiculous. The Ukie is a bit warmer than the NAM, but it's certainly closer to the NAM than the GFS... I'd take the Ukie in a heartbeat. The GFS looks like a sloppy mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 LOL this is ridiculous. The Ukie is a bit warmer than the NAM, but it's certainly closer to the NAM than the GFS... UKIE is actually a little colder. Hour 42 of Ukie has the 850 line 20-30 miles south of LI. And on NAM it was touching LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Seeing the UKMET with such a well defined 850 low in a very good position off the coast at 42 hours is great as this model has been very consistent with this storm. Looking forward to seeing the total QPF on ewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'd take the Ukie in a heartbeat. The GFS looks like a sloppy mess. Me too. The Ukie would be great. I mean, the GFS has certainly had precipitation too far north before in strong confluent set-ups, but I didn't think it worked the same way with the position of the surface low itself--I thought it simply did that because its lack of resolution makes it hard to see the sharp cut-offs between mid/upper level divergence and convergence...with strong confluence, that can be a dramatic cut-off. But maybe it does do the same thing with surface lows too, sometimes? Its SE bias is often because it over-does the northern stream diving into a southern stream, and acting "suppressive", but I don't think that's necessarily the case here. It's not like the confluences "dives" down into the system itself which renders the SE bias negligent in this case. And maybe since it doesn't understand sharp confluence, its sfc low is too far north. But I can also see where the precip cutoffs being too gradual and surface low track could be mutually exclusive, too. I just really don't know. The Euro remains important... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 here is the 6 hour precip and 850 temps at 48 hours. This is impressive and we are missing 36-42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 UKIE is actually a little colder. Hour 42 of Ukie has the 850 line 20-30 miles south of LI. And on NAM it was touching LI. The 0C line on the NAM at 42 hours is ridiculously far south. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_042l.gif The Ukie is of course, cold enough, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The 0C line on the NAM at 42 hours is ridiculously far south. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_042l.gif The Ukie is of course, cold enough, though. Was thinking of srefs mean. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 there is never a storm that is a smooth forecast..Nam has secondary development off the coast of Virginia, GFS has no secondary development and trucks the low thru jersey...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NCEP going with the middle ground between GFS and NAM. Personally I think the SREF has the right idea since the trend has been to bring a piece of the polar vortex SW and phase it with the Midwest system, which allows the confluence zone over New England to lift north. I do expect a changeover to rain for EWR/JFK/NYC/LGA at some point Wed night. Areas further east (e.g. the North Shore of Suffolk County) will be more likely to see significant snow accumulations, both because of heat island and the isotherms being oriented WNW-ESE. MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1217 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 ...WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE MIDWEST DAY 1... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: 00Z/22 ECMWF OR ECENS MEAN THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 00Z/22 ECMWF WITH THE TRACK OF THE WAVE...WITH THE GFS DECIDEDLY TO THE NORTH...PARTICULARLY ONCE THE LOW RECONSOLIDATES OFFSHORE EARLY DAY 2. AT THIS POINT...THE MIDDLE GROUND OF THE 00Z/22 ECMWF OR ECENS MEANS APPEARS TO BE THE SAFEST BET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The GGEM doesnt agree with the RGEM. Which is not usual. GGEM hour 36 has NYC and north as snow. And at hour 48, most of us as snow. The Rgem was rain the whole time. Hour 36: Hour 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Because last winter I had 7 ft of snow and this winter I've had 5 ft, and that is quite enough. Plus it is pretty unlikely the city sees anything that accumulates (more than an inch or two). that is completely understandable that you don't want anymore snow...I dont either. I was simply responding to your "enjoy your 40s and rain" comment as if any of us are controlling/rooting on this "kick in the balls" weather pattern here. Most of the people would just rather see a few more snowflakes instead of cold rain if possible. i'm sure 90% of us would rather see 70s than any of this crap right now. We're just discussing the hand we've been dealt here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Count me with the 10% that are enjoying the current weather pattern. Plenty of time for warmth, this pattern cann't possibly last too much longer, might as well enjoy it while it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 that is completely understandable that you don't want anymore snow...I dont either. I was simply responding to your "enjoy your 40s and rain" comment as if any of us are controlling/rooting on this "kick in the balls" weather pattern here. Most of the people would just rather see a few more snowflakes instead of cold rain if possible. i'm sure 90% of us would rather see 70s than any of this crap right now. We're just discussing the hand we've been dealt here Word, I hear ya. I'd rather see snow than rain as well in this pattern. But for the city and immediate suburbs, it would have to come down hard & fast to even have a chance of accumulating. Although I guess that might be optimal, 34/35 and snow is better than a soaking rain OR dealing with the slush that would inevitably result after any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ARW and NMM never have the 850 temps get above 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12Z RGEM Total Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 through 36 hrs the euro is pretty much similiar to its 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 .50+ of preciep.....looks like nw jersey/ne pa/s coast of ct do real well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thru hour 36, LGA has received .52" of precip. From Wednesday 2pm - Wednesday 8pm, we receive .29" alone with surface at 34 and 850's below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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