JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is wetter and colder. Very nice run. Even for those of us down in Central Jersey. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wasn't here during the 4/1/97 event but I do recall temps hovering just above freezing right in and around the city, newark, Hudson cty and while it did snow nothing really accumulated. But you went literally 10 miles north and west and it piled up quickly. Was the main reason due to the warm ground, temps or intensity of the precip? As I recall much of it fell at night so sun angle really wouldn't have played a part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Even for those of us down in Central Jersey. wow. Yeah. NAM has a big 2nd part of system, as Jconsor has been alluding. It popped north with it also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wasn't here during the 4/1/97 event but I do recall temps hovering just above freezing right in and around the city, newark, Hudson cty and while it did snow nothing really accumulated. But you went literally 10 miles north and west and it piled up quickly. Was the main reason due to the warm ground, temps or intensity of the precip? As I recall much of it fell at night so sun angle really wouldn't have played a part. basically a combination of all factors. Jefferson, NJ in Morris County had 22" from 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 9Z ETA total precip. Actually this looks like a good mix of the 12Z NAM and 6Z RGEM. 12Z RGEM will be telling, its excellent with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was just wondering how you arrived at those numbers. I've narrowed it down to either the etch a sketch or the magna doodle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 9Z SREF at 42 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I was just wondering how you arrived at those numbers. I estimated 1" QPF all frozen with 10:1 ratios on average with room for error on both sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I wasn't here during the 4/1/97 event but I do recall temps hovering just above freezing right in and around the city, newark, Hudson cty and while it did snow nothing really accumulated. But you went literally 10 miles north and west and it piled up quickly. Was the main reason due to the warm ground, temps or intensity of the precip? As I recall much of it fell at night so sun angle really wouldn't have played a part. I had 8 inches of snow in my area which is south and west of those areas. It was very cold here that night and then next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I estimated 1" QPF all frozen with 10:1 ratios on average with room for error on both sides. I think ratios of 6-8:1 more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 From Mt Hollys disco, seems like the NAMs current forecast has not verified..too far south and too cold JUST WANTED TO ADD A QUICK AND DIRTY VERIFICATION OF WHICH MODEL IS HANDLING OUR UPCOMING SYSTEM THE BEST THROUGH ITS 12HR FORECAST. OVERALL ITS THE ECMWF. THE NAM'S SFC LOW FCST POSN IS TOO FAR SOUTH AND ITS TOO COLD, IT HAS INFERRED FREEZING RAIN AS A PTYPE WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S IN SOUTH DAKOTA. CONVERSELY THE GFS HAD A DECENT PTYPE AND SFC LOW VERIFICATION, BUT ITS QPF AXIS VERIFIED TOO FAR TO THE SW IN THE OH VALLEY. BOTH CANADIAN MODELS PUT THE SFC LOW TOO DEEP INTO THE COLD AIR. WE'LL SEE HOW THE MODELS INITIALIZE OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I estimated 1" QPF all frozen with 10:1 ratios on average with room for error on both sides. High unlikely you will see 10:1 ratios down there... Ill be lucky to see that up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'll be quite surprised if the NAM doesnt jump north with this eventually...And i don't mean to the point of the gfs, but something in the middle is probably going to verify..Now that doesn't mean that knyc ends up on the warm side of this thing, just saying that I think the nam has got to be too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 High unlikely you will see 10:1 ratios down there... Ill be lucky to see that up here.. Strongly agree, I had somewhere in the 2-3" range of snow yesterday which melted down to .50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 High unlikely you will see 10:1 ratios down there... Ill be lucky to see that up here.. Well it was an estimate, Even at 8:1 and ~ 1" QPF I still fit in my 7-14" range. It was probably too high but only time will tell. It seems that everytime a model shows a solution this season which would give more snow to the area than forecasted, NWS/HPC finds a reason to scrap it. I do agree though that the NAM has been less than perfect so far this season with QPF placement. Seems this will all come down to how quickly the coastal gets going. Too late and we might bust big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Strongly agree, I had somewhere in the 2-3" range of snow yesterday which melted down to .50" Hey Rob, in post # 641 that might why the 06z run was light with the QPF that was mentioned in the HV thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The good news is that if the NAM does come north, our region should be in the QPF bullseye. How that affects precip types is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Thats what I mean, it wasn't a traditional interior or elevation type storm but more of a situation where if you were outside the 5 to 10 mile heat island effect of the city you got accumulations, even along the coast and further south and east I had 8 inches of snow in my area which is south and west of those areas. It was very cold here that night and then next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hey Rob, in post # 641 that might why the 06z run was light with the QPF that was mentioned in the HV thread. I saw that and now it makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM at 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 precip type maps rgem 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z RGEM is north . It now shows all rain for NYC. Looks like SNE gets hit hard with snow. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z RGEM is north . It now shows all rain for NYC. Looks like SNE gets hit hard with snow. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Yup. Rgem matches GFS now. Way too warm for coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z RGEM is north . It now shows all rain for NYC. Looks like SNE gets hit hard with snow. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z RGEM is north . It now shows all rain for NYC. Looks like SNE gets hit hard with snow. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html From the beginning we knew this wasn't our storm. I still think the answer lies somewhere in between the NAM and the GFS but as the hours pass, the GFS gains support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yup. Rgem matches GFS now. Way too warm for coast. Not a good solution. The Nam also shifted slightly north. Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. These overrunning events always find a way to trend north at the last minute. From the beginning we knew this wasn't our storm. I still think the answer lies somewhere in between the NAM and the GFS but as the hours pass, the GFS gains support. Lets hope the rest of the 12z suite comes out with a better result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. 70s.... pipe dream for a while with the neg NAO block and +PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. hardly you ever add anything to a discussion. if you want 70s theres a spring discussion somewhere around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Quelle surprise. Bring on the 70s. We're not getting that any time soon in this pattern, so we're going to root for snow. Maybe you should stop spamming these threads with your crap. Kthx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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