IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well.....All I need is 7" and Earthlight won't post for two weeks and by the looks of this forecast, I'll come close. Please note, I told him that I would hate to loose his insight for two weeks and got no response. He was so dead set against my origional call for 7-14" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well.....All I need is 7" and Earthlight won't post for two weeks and by the looks of this forecast, I'll come close. Please note, I told him that I would hate to loose his insight for two weeks and got no response. He was so dead set against my origional call for 7-14" for MBY You won't get 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FYI - Upton and Mt. Holly are actually in fairly good agreement along the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well.....All I need is 7" and Earthlight won't post for two weeks and by the looks of this forecast, I'll come close. Please note, I told him that I would hate to loose his insight for two weeks and got no response. He was so dead set against my origional call for 7-14" for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Nice going 2 to 3 in mby. I will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You won't get 7". lock this up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Nice going 2 to 3 in mby. I will take it. We got about three up here in NH yesterday. Nice little tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I guess you guys are going to ride this boat all the way to the bottom of the ocean. Even Mt. Holly is calling for a general 5-7". Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" flying for my county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I guess you guys are going to ride this boat all the way to the bottom of the ocean. Even Mt. Holly is calling for a general 5-7". Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" flying for my county. Ill be sure to take some measurements up by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 4.7 in Somerset County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 New srefs are decent. They are frozen thru hour 42 where .50"+ of qpf falls. After this they warm a little, but there is very little precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The snow as of now will probably be relegated to the nrn parts of NJ and west of 287. We gotta watch those temps aloft, because even 850 temps come close to 0C. However if the lift is intense enough, it could be more of an isothermal snowbomb. I think areas near I-80 are walking a fine line here with the chance this storm creeps north. We'll see, but the 09z SREFs ticked north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ill be sure to take some measurements up by you. cool...it will be easier to validate if it happens..Personally I could care less exactly how much I get but since John and others want to make it personal, I'll play along. I'm just super excited about having multiple threats to track in Late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 cool...it will be easier to validate if it happens..Personally I could care less exactly how much I get but since John and others want to make it personal, I'll play along. I'm just super excited about having multiple threats to track in Late March. You're still thinking 7-14"?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You're still thinking 7-14"?? Even if I was, who cares? Do I think 3-5" is still a conservative forecast? Yes I do. Do I think this event has high bust potential south of I-80 and east of 287? Yes i do. Do I fit that criteria? No I don't. 7-14" was a very preliminary call. Mets change there forecasted amounts sometimes several times even as the event is taking place. I think 4-8" is a decent call. Still wouldn't suprise me if someone locally exceeded that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kborne Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I guess you guys are going to ride this boat all the way to the bottom of the ocean. Even Mt. Holly is calling for a general 5-7". Winter Storm Watch for 4-8" flying for my county. I surprised to see how much snow actually stuck to the roads in the lehigh valley on Monday. If that much snow sticks with a relatively low snowfall, that makes me a little concerned for tomorrow. It wa warm most of last weekend but it has been quite cool the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I can see why a met getting paid to make forecasts would want to play it conservative, but as an amateur I can say whatever I want, and I shouldn't be grilled for playing it aggressive from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM has precip reaching all of us before 5am tomorrow morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I can see why a met getting paid to make forecasts would want to play it conservative, but as an amateur I can say whatever I want, and I shouldn't be grilled for playing it aggressive from time to time. Are you still talking to yourself? This thread is about the 3/23-3/24 storm threat, not noreaster85. You've single handedly ruined this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Are you still talking to yourself? This thread is about the 3/23-3/24 storm threat, not noreaster85. You've single handedly ruined this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM looking great through 24 IMO, primary weaker,,precip looking heavier......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Are you still talking to yourself? This thread is about the 3/23-3/24 storm threat, not noreaster85. You've single handedly ruined this thread. some of you really need to get a life and stop with the personal attacks. This is an open forum and if you don't like my opinions, don't read them. Enough with this garbage already. Back to the storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Even surface temps are responding on NAM now. NYC close to 32 degree line: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Even surface temps are responding on NAM now. NYC close to 32 degree line: What do you mean by responding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Surface freezing line cutting LI at hour 36: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Are you still talking to yourself? This thread is about the 3/23-3/24 storm threat, not noreaster85. You've single handedly ruined this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I can see why a met getting paid to make forecasts would want to play it conservative, but as an amateur I can say whatever I want, and I shouldn't be grilled for playing it aggressive from time to time. Every time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 compared to 6Z, 12Z nam is slightly cooler http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_slp_042m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_slp_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is wetter and colder. Very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is wetter and colder. Very nice run. Even for those of us down in Central Jersey. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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