HM Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is the heather A signal going from +NAO to -NAO. Someone's getting a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 RGEM visual..it goes to the GGEM resolution during the middle of the storm, but you get the point. It's a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Here is DT's first guess...I'd pull everything south a little but not a bad map overall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Oh ye of little faith 00Z RGEM one hour dominant precip type at hour 48 00Z RGEM three hour dominant precip type at hour 48 00Z RGEM total snow through hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z RGEM MSLP, 3 hour precip. (irrespective of type) with obviously more for our area after hour 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z UKMET has surface temperatures around NYC at 48 hours of one degree Centigrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00Z UKMET has surface temperatures around NYC at 48 hours of one degree Centigrade. How are 850s and QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 How are 850s and QPF? 850's are well below zero and QPF has a very decent signature considering it is a dry model. By the way the 00Z JMA has over 1.00" QPF for this storm, but is much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 850's are well below zero and QPF has a very decent signature considering it is a dry model. Sounds as if the UKMET is more with the NAM/GGEM/Euro than the GFS. That's good to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Impressive nocturnal convection over SD, southwest Minnesota that neither the NMM or the ARW picked up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro isn't too bad.. 850s south of us.. Boundary might be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's a bit light on the qpf.. Maybe 1/2 to 3/4 inch, but I guess this model has been consistently the driest anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's a bit light on the qpf.. Maybe 1/2 to 3/4 inch, but I guess this model has been consistently the driest anyhow yeah thats not too bad, it looked like less when i was looking at the 6hr frames. Either way, the low is still way south of the gfs and colder. GFS is an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hi res models remain very cold QPF through 48 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/hrw-nmm/20110322/00/hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Fascinating talking about snow here while SPC D2 discussion has them talking about a possible moderate risk for the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Fascinating talking about snow here while SPC D2 discussion has them talking about a possible moderate risk for the Ohio Valley. Yeah, this is a crazy synoptic setup ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO OHIO. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS...BUT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...AND AN AREA OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EFFECTIVE DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS... REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO HINGE ON THE CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...THE SHEAR STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMONG THE MODELS DO EXHIBIT SOME VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. IF SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 60F...AND THE SURFACE DOES NOT HEAT TOO STRONGLY AND SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGHER...AND THE SEVERE THREAT PERHAPS GREATER THAN REFLECTED BY THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK. CURRENTLY...IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...PROMOTING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COULD ALSO PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT IT ALSO SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COOL/COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, this is a crazy synoptic setup ...OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST... INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FOCUSED IN THE WARM SECTOR NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA INTO OHIO. THIS MAY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS...BUT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...AND AN AREA OF STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG AN EFFECTIVE DRY LINE TYPE STRUCTURE NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO REMAIN DISCRETE IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. TORNADIC POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY WITH THE DISCRETE STORMS... REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO HINGE ON THE CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IN GENERAL MAY NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY LARGE AND CLOCKWISE CURVED...THE SHEAR STILL APPEARS SUFFICIENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMONG THE MODELS DO EXHIBIT SOME VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT. IF SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 60F...AND THE SURFACE DOES NOT HEAT TOO STRONGLY AND SUPPORT DEEPER MIXING...THE TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE HIGHER...AND THE SEVERE THREAT PERHAPS GREATER THAN REFLECTED BY THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK. CURRENTLY...IT SEEMS MORE PROBABLE THAT SLIGHTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...PROMOTING PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. MODEST DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COULD ALSO PROMOTE STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE AFTERNOON. BUT IT ALSO SEEMS POSSIBLE THAT THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY MAINTAIN STRENGTH ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A CONTINUING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. COOL/COLD AIR TO THE NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE MAY MITIGATE THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL NEAR CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ACROSS NORTHERN VIRGINIA. I really hate this setup because it is not fair the Ohio valley gets the severe weather and NYC gets a possible all snow event? How could this ever happen? Chicago was getting severe weather too? I hate this weather pattern? This is the season for thunderstorms to come not snow? Death to the computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I really hate this setup because it is not fair the Ohio valley gets the severe weather and NYC gets a possible all snow event? How could this ever happen? Chicago was getting severe weather too? I hate this weather pattern? This is the season for thunderstorms to come not snow? Death to the computer model. It isn't really t-storm season around here yet. Our t-storm season doesn't really get going until later in Spring when it warms up more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It isn't really t-storm season around here yet. Our t-storm season doesn't really get going until later in Spring when it warms up more. At least I don't want a snowstorm out of this or I begging not all snow. This is the late March. I want snow is when it is winter. After 75 degree and I am in the spring. This setup is just weird because places to northwest gets rain or mixed precip and NYC gets all snow why is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 At least I don't want a snowstorm out of this or I begging not all snow. This is the late March. I want snow is when it is winter. After 75 degree and I am in the spring. This setup is just weird because places to northwest gets rain or mixed precip and NYC gets all snow why is this? Confluence, confluence, confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 For my money, I'm taking the colder WRF for this storm. I have seen this before where the GFS was way north with the milder 850 temps, only to cave to the consistently colder WRF in the end. It happened earlier this season with a wave just like this one coming W to E and I think it's going to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FWIW Upton and TWC going for accumulating snows for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 FWIW Upton and TWC going for accumulating snows for NYC. Mt. Holly has watches up for northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Anybody believe this willl verify ? 6Z NAM Snow accumulation http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/06znamsnow_NE054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This is behaving just like the February event,. Very similar setup. NAM, UKKMET, and RGEM were far better than the GFS, EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Can't believe this wasn't posted. Nothing is better than the 3z eta, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ATTM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY...AND SHOULD APPROACH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES MOVES TO THE OH VALLEY. PREFER A MORE SUPPRESSED NAM/ECMWF BLEND FOR EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON LONGER THAN IN THE GFS...AND WITH A MORE REALISTIC SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AS THE PRIMARY LOW APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS BY COMPARISON APPEARS TO BE ERODING THE HIGH TOO QUICKLY...WITH TOO CONSOLIDATED A LOW CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND NO SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS TOO MUCH WARM AIR TO INTRUDE ALOFT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD ULTIMATELY DRIVE PRECIP TYPE...SNOW IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR NYC METRO...WHERE A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS MORE LIKELY...PERHAPS A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE E-SE FLOW BRINGS IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR. FCST MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF ENHANCED LIFT VIA H7-8 FRONTOGENESIS THAT SHOULD MOVE SW-NE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...THAT WOULD BRING AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 2-4 OR 3-5 INCHES TO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT. OF THESE AREAS...ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES STAND A CHANCE OF SEEING AMOUNTS OF OVER 6 INCHES...BUT WITH ECMWF AND NAM IN CONFLICT ON QPF...THE LATTER A LITTLE MORE SUPPRESSED AND DRIER...TO SAY NOTHING OF INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF MESOSCALE BANDING MORE THAN 24 HR IN ADVANCE...DID NOT HAVE A HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE LEVEL TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I strongly feel that NYC and LI will see a slushy 1-2 accum during the day on 3/23 and gets 4-6 inches additional from 3/23 6PM evening through 3/24 3AM. The evening period looks like heavy snow with deform banding and comma head developing over the region. Definitely a plowable snow for NYC and LI per the NAM and ARW which are the high res models. Weekend event looks suppressed and not a big deal. It looks like the next week event is either HECS or nothing depending on the situation as it gets closer. That probably is the last chance and maybe the chance for a foot of snow. Next week is the closest we'll ever get in many decades to 4/1982 pattern for a spring blizzard. The upcoming pattern reminds me of the 12/19 to 12/28 pattern ....... Once past 4/5 it looks like the pattern will have no choice but to relax significantly or very slowly collapse. It looks like the first week of April is a wasting Arctic airmass over the northeast that is forced to modify greatly. After that first week, April will likely have a torch or warmer period. This will be our rapid leaf out period from 4/10 to 4/25. We will get there and rather pay with cold for the next two weeks than have this happen from 4/10 to 4/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NYC and coast will be fighting boundary temps. Only way NYC gets good snow is for precip to be heavy and especially at night. Euro has heaviest precip falling tomorrow daytime and took away the heavier precip tomorrow night. For the coast to get more then 2"-3", we must get that heavy burst of precip that some models are hinting at tomorrow night. Without it, I can't see coast getting more then 1"-2" of slush total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 There will likely be two periods of significant precip. First, a 3-6 hour period of light-moderate overrunning precip. mid-late Wed morning into early afternoon. Second, a ~9 hour period of moderate to heavy precip. associated with the developing coastal low from around 8PM to 4AM Wed night. For NYC and LI, this second period should comprise the bulk of the precip (at least two-thirds). 3Z ETA and many of the ETA-based SREF members have the best handle on the upper-level features and these 2 separate periods of precip, IMHO. NYC and coast will be fighting boundary temps. Only way NYC gets good snow is for precip to be heavy and especially at night. Euro has heaviest precip falling tomorrow daytime and took away the heavier precip tomorrow night. For the coast to get more then 2"-3", we must get that heavy burst of precip that some models are hinting at tomorrow night. Without it, I can't see coast getting more then 1"-2" of slush total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.