Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Now all that's left is for this to stay on the models until the actual storm date! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 We need to see the models showing colder thicknesses and surface temps than this to get accumulating snow in NYC in late March. These temps would work fine during winter, but late March you need much more impressive temp profiles. I can't believe people are actually getting hopes up for accumulating snow in the NYC area with the temps that are being advertised. Again this is late March ... not late February. If a model is printing out a surface temp of 32 at this early point, you can count on it getting warmer as the event approaches. You will see. I want snow as much as everyone else, but I just don't see a cold enough airmass in place here. There's a reason why there have been only a small amount of snow events in NYC in late March. You need a WELL below average cold airmass. This isn't good enough ... the real cold doesn't come in until after the storm. I'm not saying north and west of the city can't get a slushy accumulation out of this, but in the city forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton still playing it conservative only mixed precip WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton still playing it conservative only mixed precip WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Makes sense. With temps in the 40s Wednesday afternoon and it clouding up, how would you get the radiational cooling to drop temps to freezing at night in NYC? There's no way the temp will fall to 32 Wednesday night with this setup. The only way the temp would fall to freezing in NYC Wed night is with clear skies, but we know it will be coudy with rain/mixed precip. You need a much colder airmass in late March for NYC. I can't believe how some are reaching here. People really think temps are gonna drop from the 40s to freezing in NYC Wednesday night with cloudy skies? That's funny. It hard to even do that in the middle of winter, unless you have a true cold airmass moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Makes sense. With temps in the 40s Wednesday afternoon and it clouding up, how would you get the radiational cooling to drop temps to freezing at night in NYC? There's no way the temp will fall to 32 Wednesday night with this setup. The only way the temp would fall to freezing in NYC Wed night is with clear skies, but we know it will be coudy with rain/mixed precip. You need a much colder airmass in late March for NYC. I can't believe how some are reaching here. People really think temps are gonna drop from the 40s to freezing in NYC Wednesday night with cloudy skies? That's funny. It hard to even do that in the middle of winter, unless you have a true cold airmass moving in. There is such a thing as CAA you know It might not be so pronounced this go around but I've seen accumulating snow in early April PLENTY of times. We don't live in Atlanta Back in April 2006 we went from the upper 50s in the morning to 2 inches of accumulating snow in the afternoon. We get accumulating snow in April 1 out of every 3 years on average. Warning criteria 1 out of every 10 years on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Makes sense. With temps in the 40s Wednesday afternoon and it clouding up, how would you get the radiational cooling to drop temps to freezing at night in NYC? There's no way the temp will fall to 32 Wednesday night with this setup. The only way the temp would fall to freezing in NYC Wed night is with clear skies, but we know it will be coudy with rain/mixed precip. You need a much colder airmass in late March for NYC. I can't believe how some are reaching here. People really think temps are gonna drop from the 40s to freezing in NYC Wednesday night with cloudy skies? That's funny. It hard to even do that in the middle of winter, unless you have a true cold airmass moving in. i have heard this before this winter, we know its late march..And i dont care, whatever happens, happens - we have already got our snow this year. But i get excited when there is a chance for extreme weather and to prove a lot of people wrong who said no more snow. You can't deny there is a significant chance to get snow in our area. Not everyone in this forum lives in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 i have heard this before this winter, we know its late march..And i dont care, whatever happens, happens - we have already got our snow this year. But i get excited when there is a chance for extreme weather and to prove a lot of people wrong who said no more snow. You can't deny there is a significant chance to get snow in our area. Not everyone in this forum lives in NYC And it's not like we're in the deep south-- need I bring up all the years Ive seen accumulating snow in April from the 80s onwards? And quite a few of those days it was in the 50s or 60s the day before. I dont give a **** about the city's UHI problems-- we dont have that here on Long Island lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Upton still playing it conservative only mixed precip WEDNESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. THURSDAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. A section of their AFD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 324 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011 .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY BLOCKING WITH REX BLOCK OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...THUS LEAVING EASTERN CANADA UNDER A POLAR VORTEX. A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TO NEGATIVE NAO. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS WELL FORECAST (LOW SPREAD) BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEMS. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE VORTEX. THE FIRST OF THIS OCCURS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOOKING AT THE 00Z ECMWF EFS AND 12Z GEFS...SPREAD IS LOW FOR SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH AN INVERTED "NORLUN" TROUGH FEATURED FOR THURSDAY. THUS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF PCPN STARTING WEDNESDAY AFTN INTO THURSDAY. P-TYPE IS CHALLENGING WITH GEFS SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW THURSDAY MORNING WITH QPF OF OVER A HALF INCH BEING THE 30-50% RANGE. THE DETERMINISTIC 12Z GEFS GIVES MINIMAL WARNING LEVEL SNOW AT KSWF. FOR NOW...KEEPING IT MIX FOR COAST WITH POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE AS TEMPS/THICKNESSES ARE MARGINAL. AS THE LOW DEEPENS EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...PCPN SHOULD END...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REQUIRES CARRYING LOW POPS INTO THURSDAY EVENING. NW FLOW/COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN HILLS. TEMPS ARE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 There is such a thing as CAA you know It might not be so pronounced this go around but I've seen accumulating snow in early April PLENTY of times. We don't live in Atlanta Back in April 2006 we went from the upper 50s in the morning to 2 inches of accumulating snow in the afternoon. We get accumulating snow in April 1 out of every 3 years on average. Warning criteria 1 out of every 10 years on average. I've seen times where we've had a decent setup for accumulating snow in late March/early April. This isn't one of those times. I remember the nice snowstorm we had in April of 03, I believe it was. Great dynamics. I'm not seeing anything impressive enough here, but we will see. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see temps or dynamics impressive enough here. To me everything points to rain with wet snow mixed in, like Lee Goldberg said yesterday and Upton is predicting now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 Latest JB video Saturday Afternoon - still insists NYC has snow http://www.weatherbell.com/jb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I've seen times where we've had a decent setup for accumulating snow in late March/early April. This isn't one of those times. I remember the nice snowstorm we had in April of 03, I believe it was. Great dynamics. I'm not seeing anything impressive enough here, but we will see. I'd love to be wrong, but I just don't see temps or dynamics impressive enough here. To me everything points to rain with wet snow mixed in, like Lee Goldberg said yesterday and Upton is predicting now. Yeah, we're not cold enough this go around for an 4/03 type of warning event but I was hoping for at least 1-2 inches of slush like saw in a lot of other late season events (4/90, 4/00 and 4/06 come to mind specifically.) And perhaps we get another chance before the pattern changes again later in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Makes sense. With temps in the 40s Wednesday afternoon and it clouding up, how would you get the radiational cooling to drop temps to freezing at night in NYC? There's no way the temp will fall to 32 Wednesday night with this setup. The only way the temp would fall to freezing in NYC Wed night is with clear skies, but we know it will be coudy with rain/mixed precip. You need a much colder airmass in late March for NYC. I can't believe how some are reaching here. People really think temps are gonna drop from the 40s to freezing in NYC Wednesday night with cloudy skies? That's funny. It hard to even do that in the middle of winter, unless you have a true cold airmass moving in. It's not about radiational cooling. Cold Air Advection and Evaporational Cooling are the main culprits. Your dewpoint is much more important than your temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If the snow occurs during the day, it's more a question of how early in the day it starts and how much cloudiness there is than how much radiational cooling occurs the night before. As you mentioned, dry air prior to the storm is critical also. The dry air courtesy of a strong high over Quebec was one of the main reasons temps were able to cool quickly in the Apr 2003 storm. Dew points the morning of the storm were in the upper teens to low 20s in NYC/LI. It also helped quite a bit that snow started around 9-10AM and there was a thick deck of mid-level clouds for the few daylight hours before snow started. It's not about radiational cooling. Cold Air Advection and Evaporational Cooling are the main culprits. Your dewpoint is much more important than your temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 It's not about radiational cooling. Cold Air Advection and Evaporational Cooling are the main culprits. Your dewpoint is much more important than your temperature. Here is 4/7/03 - dewpoint in the mid teens a few hours before --- temps a few degrees above freezing then the temps and dew point went in opposite directions meeting during the height of the event http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2003/4/7/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I presume you mean -7.8C, not F? Euro is all snow from NYC north. Soundings confirm. Close to 1" of Qpf. And next weekend surface temps are showing -7.8 degrees. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I presume you mean -7.8C, not F? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 seems the gfs is colder and further south...snow starts at hr 90...hr 96 mod snow for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 wow whats a nice snow event on the 18z gfs....new brunswick north is all snow....prob 4-8.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If you like early spring snowstorms in nyc then 18z gfs is it...4-8 from the system....then more snow with the upper level energy thursday afternoon...pretty sexy outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If you like early spring snowstorms in nyc then 18z gfs is it...4-8 from the system....then more snow with the upper level energy thursday afternoon...pretty sexy outcome yeah, beautiful. I still think the low will trend stronger on the models other than the euro. I think the SE ridge can pump heights alittle more and there will be a more organized LP, either way, its looks like snow is returning to the big apple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 yeah, beautiful. I still think the low will trend stronger on the models other than the euro. I think the SE ridge can pump heights alittle more and there will be a more organized LP, either way, its looks like snow is returning to the big apple yeah basiclly april 2003 on the 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I think you have to go with the Euro solution as it is the best in this range, and the GFS keeps looking more and more like it. Looks like 6-12 for Northern NJ and maybe into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I think you have to go with the Euro solution as it is the best in this range, and the GFS keeps looking more and more like it. Looks like 6-12 for Northern NJ and maybe into NYC. do you see what the gfs is doing with the 2 lows rotating around the PV? kinda suspect imo, and i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 yeah basiclly april 2003 on the 18z gfs No way. Not even close to the dynamics we had in April 03. It would NOT be a 4 to 8 system if 18z GFS is correct. If it's printing out about .50 pf QPF, do you honestly think all of that wet snow would accumulate with borderline temps in late March? Again people are really reaching. Folks are reading these model runs as if it's January or February. You need MUCH colder thicknesses in late March than you would need in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 No way. Not even close to the dynamics we had in April 03. It would NOT be a 4 to 8 system if 18z GFS is correct. If it's printing out about .50 pf QPF, do you honestly think all of that wet snow would accumulate with borderline temps in late March? Again people are really reaching. Folks are reading these model runs as if it's January or February. You need MUCH colder thicknesses in late March than you would need in the middle of winter. its easier to just copy and paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Did you see the Euro? Go with that solution. 6-12 for Northern NJ, possibly into NYC. No way. Not even close to the dynamics we had in April 03. It would NOT be a 4 to 8 system if 18z GFS is correct. If it's printing out about .50 pf QPF, do you honestly think all of that wet snow would accumulate with borderline temps in late March? Again people are really reaching. Folks are reading these model runs as if it's January or February. You need MUCH colder thicknesses in late March than you would need in the middle of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 its easier to just copy and paste Sorry but it's just driving me crazy how people are misreading these model runs. Borderline temps can work in February. They don't work in late March. If 18z GFS was showing this solution in January or February, it would be a decent snow event. In late March this solution isn't impressive enough for a decent snow event in the NYC/central Jersey area. I just find it funny how people are looking at these solutions as if it's a couple months earlier, and don't realize you need much colder thicknesses in late March. I can guarantee you central Jersey wouldn't get a 4 to 8 snow event if it plays out as 18z GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 No way. Not even close to the dynamics we had in April 03. It would NOT be a 4 to 8 system if 18z GFS is correct. If it's printing out about .50 pf QPF, do you honestly think all of that wet snow would accumulate with borderline temps in late March? Again people are really reaching. Folks are reading these model runs as if it's January or February. You need MUCH colder thicknesses in late March than you would need in the middle of winter. Its all snow for new brunswick north....models have a strip of .50+.....start time around daybreak thursday....you have been harping about warm temps and sun angel the last 3 days i get it man,......you see the low cross the delmarva and throw preciep back......euro is much more stronger with the low crossing the delmarva....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Sorry but it's just driving me crazy how people are misreading these model runs. Borderline temps can work in February. They don't work in late March. If 18z GFS was showing this solution in January or February, it would be a decent snow event. In late March this solution isn't impressive enough for a decent snow event in the NYC/central Jersey area. I just find it funny how people are looking at these solutions as if it's a couple months earlier, and don't realize you need much colder thicknesses in late March. I can guarantee you central Jersey wouldn't get a 4 to 8 snow event if it plays out as 18z GFS is showing. Im not misreading a model that gives me all snow and .25-.50 of it........if you dont think that gives us accumlation, then perhaps you should learn to read models again. I been doing this a long time.....im not some newb with a fetish for snow.......i understand the sun angel...ur like a skratch cd.....just let it go pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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