bmc10 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Colder but also drier. However once the coastal cranks it really throws back some moisture Wed night into the colder air. Would not be surprised if the heaviest axis of snow this run is through central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Much colder run. Keeps best precip just south of NYC. Good run. Would rather have things a little south at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM traded colder temps for a lot less precip. Not sure if its a burp run or a trend. Very big hit for philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Here is the ETA fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is a significant snowstorm for Philly and a moderate snowstorm for NYC. Add that to the mix of solutions... If this run verified, forecasts calling for rain and 40s for Philly would need to be drastically altered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM is a significant snowstorm for Philly and a moderate snowstorm for NYC. Add that to the mix of solutions... If this run verified, forecasts calling for rain and 40s for Philly would need to be drastically altered. i guess it all depends on the track of the low pressure and the extent of the cold air, and right now i like where we stand if you factor in all the solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I really like the looks of the NAM. Just the fact that we could potentially see warnings/advisories in Spring is really cool. NAM verbatim is near-warning criteria snow for I-78 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I would like to wait for the Tuesday's12Z NAM run before I come to any solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 i guess it all depends on the track of the low pressure and the extent of the cold air, and right now i like where we stand if you factor in all the solutions. I am worried the heavier axis of precipitation will be confined to a smaller area, and where it occurs will result in those who see the higher snowfall amounts. I don't think this will be an expansive snowfall event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I would like to wait for the Tuesday's12Z NAM run before I come to any solutions. Or just wait for the 00Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM gives NYC area 0.25''-0.5'' of QPF, all snow, while it gives Philly an incredible 1-1.25'' QPF (presumably mostly snow). Warning criteria snows from central NJ on south. Just shift the storm track a little farther north and we are golden. Really awesome potential for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM gives NYC area 0.25''-0.5'' of QPF, all snow, while it gives Philly an incredible 1-1.25'' QPF (presumably all or mostly snow). Warning criteria snows from central NJ on south. Just shift the storm track a little farther north and we are golden. Really awesome potential for this time of year. Considering the NAM is currently in the southern range of potential tracks, I like where we stand right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 NAM gives NYC area 0.25''-0.5'' of QPF, all snow, while it gives Philly an incredible 1-1.25'' QPF (presumably all or mostly snow). Warning criteria snows from central NJ on south. Just shift the storm track a little farther north and we are golden. Really awesome potential for this time of year. You're forgetting that the NAM usually overdoes QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think you will like the 00Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The convergence of a light event is almost guarantee at this point, but with the model output this year, the track and temps can change in a heartbeat. Great to see snow on our doorstep once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 You're forgetting that the NAM usually overdoes QPF. to be fair, it was spot on with DEC 26 and JAN 26 and of course, FEB 6, 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think you will like the 00Z RGEM. Care to post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I think you will like the 00Z RGEM. I can't find the B&W maps for some reason. Can you post them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Briefly examined BUFKIT tonight for PNE, TNN, and New Brunswick. Gives a general 4-5" as ratios are low and there is a period of mixing Wednesday afternoon in these areas. I believe there is also a degree of melting, since using "Adding Hourly Snowfall" yields 6-7" totals but Accumulated Snowfall is forecast to be around 5". Temperatures are in the low to mid 30s, and, at least for New Brunswick, the freezing level is around 500 feet before the entire column goes below freezing at 03Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 to be fair, it was spot on with DEC 26 and JAN 26 and of course, FEB 6, 2010. Hmm, can't say I remember but those were big coastals. This is more of an overrunning scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hmm, can't say I remember but those were big coastals. This is more of an overrunning scenario. yes, that's 100% true. We shall see if the NAM is on to something; but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 through 36 hrs 850's are south of phl and surface is in nw jersey hr 39 light preciep....850's to ttn...surface nw pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Lol silence as the RGEM and GFS bring us back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 45...850's just over the city.....looks like north of the city would be snow....from the city south rain......gfs continues will the further north and warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 hr 45...850's just over the city.....looks like north of the city would be snow....from the city south rain......gfs continues will the further north and warmer solution. I guess it's not unusual this year for the models to disagree this close in.. NAM actually went south. But it is frustrating seeing the different solutions this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Lol silence as the RGEM and GFS bring us back to reality. If the Euro is still south tonight, it just may be the GFS that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 southern NY, CT, and ne PA would do really well on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It's fair to say that in terms of consistency, the NAM is the southern outlier and the GFS the northern. Is it safe to say the solution will be somewhere in the middle, maybe slightly further south than the 00z RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 The difference between NAM and GFS this close to an event is hilarious. Gotta love our wonderful US models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GGEM is a big hit for this event with a 999mb low well south of the area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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