Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 the last 6 hours of this storm are going to be impressive as the 850 low gets going off the coast. It may be rain and slop for many for the first 2/3 of the event but the last 1/3 is going to give many a quick 3-6. That's what I'm banking on, the nighttime snows to produce. That's our best shot for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Whomever manages to stay all or mostly snow is in for quite an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Whomever manages to stay all or mostly snow is in for quite an event. I'll say, 7-14" inches worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'll say, 7-14" inches worth. nzucker I think we're in great shape up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Shhhhh you'll anger the natives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Shhhhh you'll anger the natives LOL...I did already state I think everyone will get some accum. snow out of this. Lets see how the trends play out over the next 24-36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 nzucker I think we're in great shape up here Yeah I do too...I like the fact that Westchester can afford a small north trend and still stay mostly snow. Being outside the urban corridor always helps in late March as well. I definitely think a plowable event is in the works. Looking for at least 3" to break 70" on the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Shhhhh you'll anger the natives If you get 7" I won't post for two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 John...I would never want you to not post for two weeks beacause I greatly value your opinion and forecasting but I think you were definitely harsh with your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 John...I would never want you to not post for two weeks beacause I greatly value your opinion and forecasting but I think you were definitely harsh with your comments. DT is calling for 6-12" from HPN to POU and back towards NW NJ, so your forecast isn't that unreasonable. To be honest, the NW suburbs are sitting pretty now with all the models except the GFS giving us moderate-heavy snow into the overnight hours Wednesday. Time to oil up the plows! NWS has a high of 38F here Wednesday, so we may have trouble accumulating during the daytime, but Upton really screwed up last night's event as I feel they often lean mild based on late-season climo instead of taking a look at actual soundings. The fact that they aren't calling for all snow here Wednesday night seems a bit conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 If you get 7" I won't post for two weeks Really? I think it is feasible someone north of 80 could see 5-9 inches, especially in higher elevations. Still thinking 1-4 in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18z gfs still north and warmer than every other model. Mostly rain for nyc metro 18z gfs was all snow for hpn. Im not agreeing with the huge amounts being thrown around here....but lets atleast say what the models are actually showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 18z gfs was all snow for hpn. Im not agreeing with the huge amounts being thrown around here....but lets atleast say what the models are actually showing. strongly disagree, 18z gfs was just about all rain for everyone in this forum except those well well N and W...This is old news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 strongly disagree, 18z gfs was just about all rain for everyone in this forum except those well well N and W...This is old news Why is bufkit incorrect for hpn then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 i never said WHITE PLAINS and i dont care about soundings on the 18z gfs which has been inconsistent in itself. I took a quick look at 850s and the surface and NYC is mostly rain as well as where i live which is in northeast jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 i never said WHITE PLAINS and i dont care about soundings on the 18z gfs which has been inconsistent in itself. I took a quick look at 850s and the surface and NYC is mostly rain as well as where i live which is in northeast jersey. white plains is well within any boundaries anyone cares to use for 'NYC metro", sorry. If you dont care about the soundings on a particular model, please dont make incorrect statements about them. Inconsistent or not, it shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 New Srefs colder then 15z run. 850 line never gets above south shore of LI. While 15z had it north of swct. Also has surface at or below freezing the last 6-8 hours of event. Precip is moderate at night as well. Good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Agreed AG3, srefs are rather robust at the end, like the gefs. Colder as well, more like 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 white plains is well within any boundaries anyone cares to use for 'NYC metro", sorry. If you dont care about the soundings on a particular model, please dont make incorrect statements about them. Inconsistent or not, it shows snow. good for you and i dont care, that is a rainstorm on the 18z gfs for NYC and the surrounding Metropolitan areas besides white plains of course, they are all snow based on soundings. you're being way to picky here man, just pretend i didn't say "NYC metro" and you will sleep better tonight since you are the only one annoyed by my commment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It looks like this is turning into a slop event for Wednesday day and a much more robust, quick hit of snow overnight Wednesday while coastal gets going. Inland areas might cash in during daytime, with overrunning and the coastal area can cash in big time with the developing coastal, overnight Wednesday A win win solution for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 height of the "snow" storm for the coast is around 48 hours. Should be ripping pretty good then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 good for you and i dont care, that is a rainstorm on the 18z gfs for NYC and the surrounding Metropolitan areas besides white plains of course, they are all snow based on soundings. you're being way to picky here man, just pretend i didn't say "NYC metro" and you will sleep better tonight since you are the only one annoyed by my commment Whatever dude...its a weather forum. Geography is kind of important. Carry on with the ignorance if you must. If you think Im being picky by pointing that out, so be it. HPN is well within the metro area.....so just admit you screwed up and move on. http://maps.google.c...ps?hl=en&tab=wl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Again, Please take all arguments and bickering out of this thread! It's really annoying and ruins our board. Where is the banter thread? Go there to discuss nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Could someone kindly post the SREF thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 12z JMA, this definately looks NAM - like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 21Z RSM. This is what has fallen prior to 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00z NAM definately colder than 18z at hr 36 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00z NAM definately colder than 18z at hr 36 so far Yup. Continues thru 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It better start cranking soon because very little precip and lift through 51. Best lift and precip way south of the nyc metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yup. Continues thru 39. significantly colder actually, surface low heading way south, surface and 850's have crashed, probably all snow this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.