IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NorEaster...I'm right near you in Boonton. Are you still thinking 7''? It's hard to say how this is going to turn out. Probably a more or less non-event for the city but then again almost every storm is a non-event for the city unless there are 12"+ totals. I still like 7-14" west of 287. 4-8" is probably a more reasonable forecast in most peoples eyes but I wonder how many times we are going to continue to see conservative forecasts which are changed inside of 24hrs. I get asked alot of questions like, "Why did it say this morning that we were only suppose to get 3-6" and now it says 6-10"" I just tell them the way forecasting has become, they always play the conservative game after being burned a few times. One of these days, playing it conservative is going to get them burned big time in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The 18z NAM has warmed the temperatures over the 12z for during the day Wednesday. The temperature forecasts/OBS the next few days will be critical especially along the coast. The coast could see some rain/snow issues during Wednesday and or some wet snow melting. Once the low gets offshore Wednesday night,it should change to all snow at the coast. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 actually....if you had read my post, you would have noticed I said for my back yard, which is not NYC proper. which one? the one you deleted already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Pretty aggressive. didn't say it wasn't lol but then again I was grilled so badly you would have thought I said 1-2' + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 which one? the one you deleted already? It's not deleted, if you feel so obligated, go back and read it yourself. I made the post just after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It's hard to say how this is going to turn out. Probably a more or less non-event for the city but then again almost every storm is a non-event for the city unless there are 12"+ totals. I still like 7-14" west of 287. 4-8" is probably a more reasonable forecast in most peoples eyes but I wonder how many times we are going to continue to see conservative forecasts which are changed inside of 24hrs. I get asked alot of questions like, "Why did it say this morning that we were only suppose to get 3-6" and now it says 6-10"" I just tell them the way forecasting has become, they always play the conservative game after being burned a few times. One of these days, playing it conservative is going to get them burned big time in the opposite direction. Thanks for the reply! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 It's not deleted, if you feel so obligated, go back and read it yourself. I made the post just after noon. I was referring to the one you made earlier that Earthlight responded to. That's the one that got everyone into a frenzy. It is no longer there because either you or Earthlight removed it. Don't play this game, dude - you know I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This was my origional post which took so much heat....from 12:10 or so, you can go back and verify it for yourself Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z NAM looks like about 1 to 2F warmer during the day and a hair under 1C warmer at 850 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 did you? heres mt hollys hazardous outlook http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ008&warncounty=NJC027&firewxzone=NJZ008&local_place1=Hibernia+NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook thats for northeast PA and northwest NJ - umm this is the NYC metro forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 thats for northeast PA and northwest NJ - umm this is the NYC metro forum Mount holly covers me...I'm 30 miles outside of NYC. Where else would that be posted? I'm 90 miles from Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I was referring to the one you made earlier that Earthlight responded to. That's the one that got everyone into a frenzy. It is no longer there because either you or Earthlight removed it. Don't play this game, dude - you know I'm right. that is the post, the one that Earthlight responded too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah up here in the Morris County, NW NJ, Western Passaic area we are really out on our own. Our weather is not like Philly and is usually not like NYC either with regards to snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z NAM looks like about 1 to 2F warmer during the day and a hair under 1C warmer at 850 for the city. Minor temperature fluctuations can be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 that is the post, the one that Earthlight responded too. I Know what your OP stated, and so do you. I'm not going to clutter up this thread any more with this nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Minor temperature fluctuations can be expected. Minor temp fluctuations can make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah up here in the Morris County, NW NJ, Western Passaic area we are really out on our own. Our weather is not like Philly and is usually not like NYC either with regards to snow storms. Ok, enough, we get it. Your backyard is the snow capital of the world...ok, enough. Let's stop this back and forth and talk about the area as a whole. IMBY posts are the most ridiculous, stupid things to bring to these forums. They always start some sort of fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18Z GFS is running... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 IMO this will likely be an accumulating snow event FOR EVERYONE in the metro area, but because the precip starts Wed. Aftn we will likely lose 1/3 -1/2 of the QPF to melting/poor ratios. I think 2-4 in the city is a good bet. N and W this could be quite the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Minor temp fluctuations can make a huge difference. The model has me at 35 Deg F on the 18Z run, and 34 Deg F on the 12Z run. I saw snow with 38 Deg F today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Please make a separate thread for snow maps and snow amounts predicted for the upcoming storm. Keep this thread to data and non IMO statements. It gets too confusing hearing everyone throw out a bunch of different amounts and people bickering about who is right and who is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z gfs still north and warmer than every other model. Mostly rain for nyc metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18z gfs still north and warmer than every other model. Mostly rain for nyc metro Yea it is ugly, but I still question how it handles the primary differently then all the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yea it is ugly, but I still question how it handles the primary differently then all the other guidance. yeah not sure if i buy it either with the euro being significantly further south and colder, with many other models supporting a stronger low than what the gfs has as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah, I think this storm has the potential to put down light snowfall accumulations, as a firm bet. Other than that, any higher accumulations really depends on the track and amount of moisture. Right now, a middle-road track seems to suggest a good 3-6" for many, including the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Unlike the NAM, the GFS still doesn't want to shunt the 850 low to the SE, and that results in a much warmer solution. Hope to see some changes at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Ensembles at hour 60 are much better for our area and the individuals are pretty much in agreement, no out to sea members skewing the mean southeast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 And here's 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Ensembles at hour 60 are much better for our area and the individuals are pretty much in agreement, no out to sea members skewing the mean southeast: the last 6 hours of this storm are going to be impressive as the 850 low gets going off the coast. It may be rain and slop for many for the first 2/3 of the event but the last 1/3 is going to give many a quick 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Might as well post hour 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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