pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton sayz: "When all is said and done Thursday...could see up to 6 inches of snow across portions of the interior. 1 to 4 inches possible as you head closer to the coast...with little or no snow accumulate near the coast...NYC metropolitan. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 and that's still playing it conservative...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 18Z NAM has 4-8 for NYC metro so far through 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ... and it appears that it is going to be bullish, like it was at 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ... and it appears that it is going to be bullish, like it was at 12Z yes sir, 996mb low exiting the coast well south of Cape May 992mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 only difference is it looks a bit warmer... looks like it is trying to spit out the huge totals a bit further north in the lower hudson valley, but either way, it still is suggesting a rather significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 really cranking over the city between 57 and 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 only difference is it looks a bit warmer... looks like it is trying to spit out the huge totals a bit further north in the lower hudson valley, but either way, it still is suggesting a rather significant snowfall. From what I understand the 12Z NAM had errors initializing right? And the 18z uses the same data as the 12z...so there would be errors on the 18z also right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 really cranking over the city between 60 and 63 hours. yeah not to mention a rapidly deepening low exiting the coast of delware, would most likely be snow for NYC N and W, especially with heavy precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ... SV weather map snowfall accums say 8-12 inches from NYC and points north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 yeah not to mention a rapidly deepening low exiting the coast of delware, would most likely be snow for NYC N and W I was a few hours off, looks like its the best right before that. Still, I'll take it for this late in the season. Run to run variances are inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM seems to have a secondary shortwave pushing through our area to help enhance the snowfall towards the end of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton says no accumulations in sight - have to agree the potential is over http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html lol as did both mt holly and upton for today and guess what? i had 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You the same people that fried me earlier for saying that 7-14" well west of the city was a bad forecast at this range? Oh ok...thought so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This still appears to be a moderate threat for the area. I think Upton's 1-4 call for NYC and upwards of 6 N and W is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM seems to have a secondary shortwave pushing through our area to help enhance the snowfall towards the end of the storm. Check out the 850 position. That works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You the same people that fried me earlier for saying that 7-14" well west of the city was a bad forecast at this range? Oh ok...thought so Still a bad forecast, everything basically needs to be perfect for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Don't give me crap - call Upton did you bother to read their forecast and Mount Holly's ???? did you? heres mt hollys hazardous outlook http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NJZ008&warncounty=NJC027&firewxzone=NJZ008&local_place1=Hibernia+NJ&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Still a bad forecast, everything basically needs to be perfect for that to verify. Dude....you based your forecast on climo alone even after most of the 12z suite trended towards a more significant event. The media is going to have a field day if the higher totals end up coming to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 From what I understand the 12Z NAM had errors initializing right? And the 18z uses the same data as the 12z...so there would be errors on the 18z also right? ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 You the same people that fried me earlier for saying that 7-14" well west of the city was a bad forecast at this range? Oh ok...thought so Your first forecast said 7-14" for "our region" (this is NYC metro in case you didn't know). Your "well west of the city" adjustment came only after people started scoffing at that first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Dude....you based your forecast on climo alone even after most of the 12z suite trended towards a more significant event. The media is going to have a field day if the higher totals end up coming to fruition. I think Upton is playing it smart, for most people in the metro this will probably end up as nothing more than something pretty to look at as it falls (i.e. little to no accumulation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think Upton and Mount Holly make sense with their little to no accumulation for areas near the coast. The lack of a cold high in good position to the north is a problem, as is the position of the 850 low. You have some east winds. You also have the fact that a lot of the storm will be during daylight hours when temps are above freezing. So much going against this to get much accumulating snow near the coast. Of course weather is very unpredictable. I've been negative on this event, but I never meant to imply that there's a 100% chance that accumulating snow won't happen near the coast. And it wouldn't shock me to see a very minor slushy accumulation on colder surfaces wednesday night when the temps drop, after non accumulating wet snow during the afternoon. North and west obviously has a much better chance for more significant accumulations. I also don't have such a big ego that I'm rooting to be right. I love snow so I'd rather be wrong. I will also be hard on myself for a poor job if I'm wrong and areas near the coast see a good accumulating snow. I still don't think much will happen here as far as accumulating snow, but I say bring it on! I'd love nothing more than to be wrong. For folks that don't want to see snow after experiencing 80 degrees the other day, I say you have to try to enjoy it if it happens. A month from now, all chances of snow will be gone and we won't have another chance until at least November. We'll have month after month of warmth, so we might as well try to squeeze out one or two final snow events here while we still have a chance. In a few weeks this will all be over, and we'll have plenty of time for warm weather. So root on the snow now! We haven't had any since the start of February, so a last gasp from winter in the next couple weeks is welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Your first forecast said 7-14" for "our region" (this is NYC metro in case you didn't know). Your "well west of the city" adjustment came only after people started scoffing at that first post. so were do you want him to post it than? There is no North jersey forum or nw jersey forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Your first forecast said 7-14" for "our region" (this is NYC metro in case you didn't know). Your "well west of the city" adjustment came only after people started scoffing at that first post. actually....if you had read my post, you would have noticed I said for my back yard, which is not NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 actually....if you had read my post, you would have noticed I said for my back yard, which is not NYC proper. You're still claiming victory because of one run of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeInNJ Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 actually....if you had read my post, you would have noticed I said for my back yard, which is not NYC proper. NorEaster...I'm right near you in Boonton. Are you still thinking 7''? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not true based on the consensus of guidance - the vast majority of the precip. will likely fall on Wed night, esp. from NE NJ and NYC eastward. I think Upton and Mount Holly make sense with their little to no accumulation for areas near the coast. The lack of a cold high in good position to the north is a problem, as is the position of the 850 low. You have some east winds. You also have the fact that a lot of the storm will be during daylight hours when temps are above freezing. So much going against this to get much accumulating snow near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This was my origional post which took so much heat....from 12:10 or so, you can go back and verify it for yourself Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This was my origional post which took so much heat....from 12:10 or so, you can go back and verify it for yourself Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter. Pretty aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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