Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Agree 100%. The track and temperature are the important things. Always is. Jan 26-27 euro was showing .50"-.75" 24 and 48 hours before we all got 18" of snow. Good to see it holding the southern, colder track. Thats all that concerns me right now. Not qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 At 138 hrs there is a moisture laden sub 1000mb low over the TN Valley. This could be interesting. Nice 50/50 low and a nice high over Canada in place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 At 144 hrs it looks like moderate snow with sub freezing temperatures in DC and light snow up to south Jersey. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Going to shunt it out to sea south of us but light snow makes it into NYC at 150 hrs and moderate snow into Philly and south Jersey. DC gets clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Light snow continues for NYC and everyone else at 156 hrs with moderate snow in south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 more or less, the GFS and Euro are singing the same tune with respect to that storm next week.... for now, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 What do you think the chances are of that one coming further north for us? more or less, the GFS and Euro are singing the same tune with respect to that storm next week.... for now, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro for day 6 storm. Has Philly around .50" and DC about .85". All levels, including surface are frigid. Brushes us with about .10" of qpf. Amazing setup with big highs to our north and 50/50 in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 A lot of people are going to be shocked if these storms happen. People think that winter is over because it's now spring. I just told my friends that it might snow. They don't believe me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro for day 6 storm. Has Philly around .50" and DC about .85". All levels, including surface are frigid. Brushes us with about .10" of qpf. Amazing setup with big highs to our north and 50/50 in place. That's coming north. This setup screams central jersey through mid-hudson valley jackpot for the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 What do you think the chances are of that one coming further north for us? Well... it will depend a lot on the positioning of a blocking low near the 50/50 position. I have to say.. as was similar a few weeks ago, the spaghetti plots are in really good agreement at that range and it looks like most the ensemble members suggest a more southern solution at this point... lots of time to go though, but I've been amazed as of late in the consistancy in ensemble members in longer ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 A lot of people are going to be shocked if these storms happen. People think that winter is over because it's now spring. I just told my friends that it might snow. They don't believe me at all. Happens every year. First warm day signals the end of winter to them, as if the winter to spring transition was linear. I feel pretty confident on a 3-5 inch snowfall for the NYC area when taking everything into account as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 850 temps really don't go above zero much at all for the entire Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The future pattern screams potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 where is the nogaps dude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 where is the nogaps dude? il say it, "it should be alarming that a PROGRESSIVE BIAS model is more amplified than the gfs/euro." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 il say it, "it should be alarming that a PROGRESSIVE BIAS model is more amplified than the gfs/euro." thanks, I needed that, now it feels like winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Mount Holly - little snow acccumulation both storms - have to agree http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KPHI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 15z srefs popped north, it appears. Surface and 850's go above 0 for coast, for a lot of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 15z srefs popped north, it appears. Surface and 850's go above 0 for coast, for a lot of the event. dont see 850's above 0 north of central jersey. Post the map. Looks like the whole area is -4 to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 dont see 850's above 0 north of central jersey. Post the map. Looks like the whole area is -4 to 0. Hour 54, 850's cutting thru NYC Hour 57, North of NYC And at hour 60, the same. Not to mention, surface temps are pretty warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 We have to wait for the individuals. Or are they out yet? There could be a few models skewing the mean. I know the ETA5 was heading for Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton says no accumulations in sight - have to agree the potential is over http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 here is hour 60 from the individuals, some ridiculously warm members that appear out to lucnh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton says no accumulations in sight - have to agree the potential is over http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html What planet are you on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton says no accumulations in sight - have to agree the potential is over http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html JB disagrees: I am looking for accumulating snow Wednesday as far south as the Pa TPK in eastern pa as the idea from last week, that this storm collapses southeast Wed night and Thursday looks good. As such, a back to backsnow accumulating event should occur in NYC! I think Wed into Thur is mainly snow there. The nao says it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 using a local forecast as your "backup and reasoning" will do absolutely nothing for me. This potential is real and so is the next one. I dont know why he just posted the same link 4 times in 2 threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Upton says no accumulations in sight - have to agree the potential is over http://kamala.cod.ed...pus51.KOKX.html Did you just wake up and not see the daytime models? This potential isn't over for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 What planet are you on? Don't give me crap - call Upton did you bother to read their forecast and Mount Holly's ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 here is hour 60 from the individuals, some ridiculously warm members that appear out to lucnh Wow... those are really warm... and in their own fantasies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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