rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I would have to strongly disagree with that statement. Some of the best snows can be found in the late season Catskills/Poconos and high elevations of Nw Nj around the area even under 2,000 feet.. Late March/April significant/major snowstorms are quite frequent around the area more than you think! 5.5 inches of snow this am at my house was a very nice surprise this morning. just was looking at famartins website (which only lists snow that trenton gets) andfrom march 18 on it happens almost every year and thats not even counting high elevation areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 March 31, 1997 Hackettstown, NJ got 18 inches. April 10th or something like that back in the mid 1980's Hackettstown, NJ got about 12 inches You must be too young to remember these events. April 2nd about 8 years ago got 2 inches. 7-14" in the last week of March anywhere south of New England or below 2000' is quite unheard of. Yes, it has happened, but I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any such forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 A forecast of 3-6 or 4-8 inches for areas north of 80 and 1-3 in the city seems reasonable at this time. A plowable snow seems more likely now. Today was an indication of the future potential. Temperatures should be sufficiently cold compliments of a large area of confluence to the north. I don't think the idea of the primary cutting substantially is reasonable with the pattern at H5. I think the strong gradient that establishes over the region will be sufficient for copious amounts of precipitation as a result of the dynamics and lift. The coastal interaction will be interesting also, will we benefit from any moisture thrown back? I still think higher amounts are possible in the city. I think indications for a moderate snowstorm are becoming more apparent, especially in more elevated locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ahh thank you! I live nw of you in Pike county Pa, elevation up here 1000-2000 feet. I have seen numerous 6+ inch snowstorms even into Mid April in my neck of the woods and I'm well under 2000 feet. and after checking out some info its more like 1 out of every 3 years lol and thats for my area. im counting from mid march(18th through april) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is a nice hit at hr 60 850 0c line is south of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ahh thank you! I live nw of you in Pike county Pa, elevation up here 1000-2000 feet. I have seen numerous 6+ inch snowstorms even into Mid April in my neck of the woods and I'm well under 2000 feet. don't say that, you might upset the natives! Nobody cares about NJ or PA for that matter because "nobody lives there" remember? and NYC is the center of the Universe!!! Seriously, some people on here think that NYC is the entire world and that it can't snow after a certain date because the calender says so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 March 31, 1997 Hackettstown, NJ got 18 inches. April 10th or something like that back in the mid 1980's Hackettstown, NJ got about 12 inches You must be too young to remember these events. April 2nd about 8 years ago got 2 inches. ahhh the famous March 31/April fools day blizzard of 97! Up to 20 inches in parts of Nepa where I live now and Nw Nj. I rememeber that storm quite well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ahh thank you! I live nw of you in Pike county Pa, elevation up here 1000-2000 feet. I have seen numerous 6+ inch snowstorms even into Mid April in my neck of the woods and I'm well under 2000 feet. i was up in Wild Acres Pa during the blizzard in 1982 and measured 13.5"...I drove home to Brooklyn that evening and there was 7-8" on the ground...I remember one April morning in 1973 when it got 3" while the city received a trace...3/29/1974 I measured 9" up there with freezing rain also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 the low end range is not that unheard even below 500 ft. define your idea of unheard of? Id say 1 out of every 5-..7 yrs (and probably more like 5 yrs) i get a 6+ inch storm at the end of march. thats really not that unheard of and my elevation is only 380 ft. How long have you lived in nw jersey? Maybe unheard of was a bit strong, but once every 7 years is pretty rare. Snowfall along the gulf coast is more common than once every 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Maybe unheard of was a bit strong, but once every 7 years is pretty rare. Snowfall along the gulf coast is more common than once every 7 years. and read my later posts, its even more common than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 don't say that, you might upset the natives! Nobody cares about NJ or PA for that matter because "nobody lives there" remember? and NYC is the center of the Universe!!! Seriously, some people on here think that NYC is the entire world and that it can't snow after a certain date because the calender says so. haha I like that, so true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The EURO is colder and further south in comparison to the GFS and in agreement with other models. It is somewhat dry though, nothing is as moisture latent as the NAM. Will be interesting to monitor future indications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 March 31, 1997 Hackettstown, NJ got 18 inches. April 10th or something like that back in the mid 1980's Hackettstown, NJ got about 12 inches You must be too young to remember these events. April 2nd about 8 years ago got 2 inches. And how many times in late March/early April has it rained instead of snowed? You are familiar with the way probability is assessed, right? And no, I'm not too young to remember those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 don't say that, you might upset the natives! Nobody cares about NJ or PA for that matter because "nobody lives there" remember? and NYC is the center of the Universe!!! Seriously, some people on here think that NYC is the entire world and that it can't snow after a certain date because the calender says so. NYC is the entire world, not sure what planet you live on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is still cold and south but isnt as wet as the rest of the guidance. For NYC, it has .41" of qpf. Most of the precip falls Wednesday 2pm - Thursday 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The Euro has generally been consistently dry this whole event. Though if you want a month with classic warm/cold temperature gradients resulting in moisture, March is that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Euro is still cold and south but isnt as wet as the rest of the guidance. For NYC, it has .41" of qpf. Most of the precip falls Wednesday 2pm - Thursday 7am. Not surprised one bit. Model has been way too dry as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 And how many times in late March/early April has it rained instead of snowed? You are familiar with the way probability is assessed, right? And no, I'm not too young to remember those events. Yea probability, or statisticsn indicate that an event every few years is not uncommon, nor should it be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 and read my later posts, its even more common than that. From the 24th of March on? Sure, it still snows after that date, but heavy snow is still relatively rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yea probability, or statisticsn indicate that an event every few years is not uncommon, nor should it be discounted. No, that is uncommon. Otherwise you'd have to argue that snow in Jacksonville, FL is not uncommon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Not surprised one bit. Model has been way too dry as of late. Always is. Jan 26-27 euro was showing .50"-.75" 24 and 48 hours before we all got 18" of snow. Good to see it holding the southern, colder track. Thats all that concerns me right now. Not qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The Euro has generally been consistently dry this whole event. Though if you want a month with classic warm/cold temperature gradients resulting in moisture, March is that month. Bingo I referenced the gradient in a previous post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The Euro has generally been consistently dry this whole event. Though if you want a month with classic warm/cold temperature gradients resulting in moisture, March is that month. Euro had 1.10" of qpf as all snow on Saturdays 12z run, right before the gtg. So it has shown big amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 No, that is uncommon. Otherwise you'd have to argue that snow in Jacksonville, FL is not uncommon. Wow, really? You are missing the the point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 We can certainly get snow when there is an 850 low in the southern Great Lakes, provided it is closed off and not too broad, is being shunted ESE-ward, and there is a sufficient amount of overrunning moisture ahead of it. We have that, here. I'd think somewhere between the 60-66 hour timeframe is when we'd have to worry about the midlevels warming up because of the fact that the 850 low is much closer to us, and perhaps that would be when a bit of mid-level WAA would occur. We want as quick of a transfer to a closed, 850-low as possible--a broad one in Central PA might pose problems. However, if we can get the dynamics to be sufficient, that gives us a bit more breathing room. But in a set-up where precip intensity maxes and wanes, we have to be a bit careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i was up in Wild Acres Pa during the blizzard in 1982 and measured 13.5"...I drove home to Brooklyn that evening and there was 7-8" on the ground...I remember one April morning in 1973 when it got 3" while the city received a trace...3/29/1974 I measured 9" up there with freezing rain also... ha, isn't that something! I live about 10 min up the road in Pocono Mountain Lake Forest. Yea sure is a world of difference up here in the winter, even locally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 From the 24th of March on? Sure, it still snows after that date, but heavy snow is still relatively rare. from 1996-2010 its happened at least 4 times (someone nj getting 6 inches in april) and thats only going by ray martins site which he only lists dates if trenton got snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm confused. 4 inches from the euro is a solid hit for this time of year no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Has to be the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. So the rest of the 300+ million people living in the US alone outside of NYC don't exist? Who needs LA, Tokyo, London, Moscow, Paris, Rome just to name a few? I suppose they are all in the same boat as NJ in your eyes? Enough with this crap. Take it elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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