pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I see where this is going, oh well I'll just sit back and laugh next week if the higher amounts verify, and if not, thats fine too If they don't will you go to the Philly forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The temperatures would be warmer than the NAM is showing here at the coast if that strong of an ENE flow develops. I agree. The low deepening over PA and MD before reaching the coast will pull up actually warm air ahead of it. But it's really the NAM suggesting the possibility of deformation band, dynamic cooling and increased CAA behind the storm late Wed night, that we have shot at accumulating snow over NYC and LI. Right now it looks like it has a very slim chance of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Do we get to correct your grammar as well as your forecasts? It's called a typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I agree. The low deepening over PA and MD before reaching the coast will pull up actually warm air ahead of it. But it's really the NAM suggesting the possibility of deformation band, dynamic cooling and increased CAA behind the storm late Wed night, that we have shot at accumulating snow over NYC and LI. Right now it looks like it has a very slim chance of happening. Just want to add. Not just the NAM. UKIE, GGEM, SREFS, RSM and ETA so far all agree with NAM. All thats left right now is the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GGEM color maps. Hours 48-60 Hours 60-72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 would jfk be similar to lga? warmer probably? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 12z GEFS mean is colder than 0z but a little warmer than 6z. would jfk be similar to lga? warmer probably? 12z Nam text soundings for JFK http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_Kjfk.txt Snow to rain to snow. High of 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 John, And you said I was over the top earlier? John. I have a great deal of respect for your forecasting ability, but I truly think you are greatly underestimating the possibilities for this storm to dump more than 6 inches of snow across Northern New Jersey and NYC. Of course there is a chance we could end up with only 3-6 inches, but I truly believe a better forecast at this point would be 6-10. The NOGAPS, Canadian, NAM, SREF, and now UKMET all show this possibility. The EC and GFS are very close to this as well. Who knows, maybe you will end up right, but he certainly has enough models on his side to make such a forecast. Okay, so your method of forecasting is to take the 66 hour NAM, rip and read the bufkit and clown maps, and type up the amounts? Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 personally speaking, I think it's a bit dangerous to forecast an obscene amount of snow.. even if most of the models show it.. just given late March climatology alone.. I mean.. of course, you are going to get your storms every so often that go way against climo, but being conservative is probably not a bad idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 personally speaking, I think it's a bit dangerous to forecast an obscene amount of snow.. even if most of the models show it.. just given late March climatology alone.. I mean.. of course, you are going to get your storms every so often that go way against climo, but being conservative is probably not a bad idea. I'm still failing to see how 7-14" is a terrible forecast at this time for my back yard. Maybe its a tad overdone but I live well west of the city and I'm normally part of the areas that stay mostly snow when the city and burbs change over. Since I'm not a met, I have the luxury of not taking the conservative route every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm still failing to see how 7-14" is a terrible forecast at this time for my back yard. Maybe its a tad overdone but I live well west of the city and I'm normally part of the areas that stay mostly snow when the city and burbs change over. Since I'm not a met, I have the luxury of not taking the conservative route every time. *reads above post* *looks at calendar* *laughs* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 *reads above post* *looks at calendar* *laughs* your first mistake was this *reads above post* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 *reads above post* *looks at calendar* *laughs* The calendar means nothing when the pattern supports snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 *reads above post* *looks at calendar* *laughs* Some of his posts should be saved for posterity. I mean, not even Zucker with his 401' elevation is saying those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 your first mistake was this *reads above post* haha, true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 To tell you all you truth I really don't want a big snowstorm in the spring. There is nothing more that having snow when it is suppose warm. Death to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The calendar means nothing when the pattern supports snow. yea, maybe if you live up in the Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i wonder if the high resolution models are picking up on the effects of the blocking... the low res gfes is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 yea, maybe if you live up in the Poconos. it's the surface melting rate that matters we will definitely see some moderate/heavy snow in the air on wednesday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i wonder if the high resolution models are picking up on the effects of the blocking... the low res gfes is north that was the case with feb 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 yea, maybe if you live up in the Poconos. i had 3 inches of snow fall in 2 hrs this morning and temps never got below freezing. It has snowed plenty of times in late march away from the city. A 6 inch snowfall is not that unheard of. sure it will melt fast but you guys are acting like its june Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 forky has a point about hires models picking up blocking; but a question: wasn't that block much stronger than now, yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 To tell you all you truth I really don't want a big snowstorm in the spring. There is nothing more that having snow when it is suppose warm. Death to the NAM. The GFS is more of an outlier today than the NAM. In any event I could really care less if it snows or not after the winter I've had. I can think of a few scenarios I would like to see for this possible event out of spite for a few posters on here but then again I really don't think its necessary to waste that much energy arguing about things we have no control over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 that was the case with feb 5, 2010 and with the February event this year which was a very similar setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 i had 3 inches of snow fall in 2 hrs this morning and temps never got below freezing. It has snowed plenty of times in late march away from the city. A 6 inch snowfall is not that unheard of. sure it will melt fast but you guys are acting like its june 7-14" in the last week of March anywhere south of New England or below 2000' is quite unheard of. Yes, it has happened, but I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any such forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 7-14" in the last week of March anywhere south of New England or below 2000' is quite unheard of. Yes, it has happened, but I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any such forecast. I would have to strongly disagree with that statement. Some of the best snows can be found in the late season Catskills/Poconos and high elevations of Nw Nj around the area even under 2,000 feet.. Late March/April significant/major snowstorms are quite frequent around the area more than you think! 5.5 inches of snow this am at my house was a very nice surprise this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 7-14" in the last week of March anywhere south of New England or below 2000' is quite unheard of. Yes, it has happened, but I wouldn't put a lot of confidence in any such forecast. the low end range is not that unheard even below 500 ft. define your idea of unheard of? Id say 1 out of every 5-..7 yrs (and probably more like 5 yrs) i get a 6+ inch storm at the end of march. thats really not that unheard of and my elevation is only 380 ft. How long have you lived in nw jersey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 UKMET off of ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 the low end range is not that unheard even below 500 ft. define your idea of unheard of? Id say 1 out of every 10 yrs (and probably more like 5- 7 yrs) i get a 6+ inch storm at the end of march. thats really not that unheard of and my elevation is only 380 ft. How long have you lived in nw jersey? ahh thank you! I live nw of you in Pike county Pa, elevation up here 1000-2000 feet. I have seen numerous 6+ inch snowstorms even into Mid April in my neck of the woods and I'm well under 2000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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