Fantom Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The situation is eerily similar to 4/7/03. About this far out of the event or even a little closer, the gfs had the 3c 850 isotherm just over the metro area. While the nam kept the 0 850 line just south. The nam is better at CAD situations. Wd definitely lean towards the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'm thinking the Howie is supposed to travel rule is in effect here as I'm supposed to fly out to Copenhagen while this event is going on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter. Dude, are you serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Dude, are you serious? What, you don't think that's possible with a late September sun angle and marginal surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 love the last desperation of the snow weenies happy spring to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Dude, are you serious? I'm more in line with a 2-4 type event at most for NYC, NJ shore , and Western LI....3-7 inches for NNJ and the HV.....this is still not a lock guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Dude, are you serious? look at the Bufkit output for KMMU for the NAM....12.7". Look at the clown maps as well, how is 7-14" a bad forecast at this point? My forecast is not for NYC, it's for MBY just as I pointed out in my post. 110323/1300Z 49 04004KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110323/1400Z 50 05004KT 31.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 1.2 0.063|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1500Z 51 06006KT 31.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 2.1 0.079|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1600Z 52 04007KT 32.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 2.5 0.043|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1700Z 53 05008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 3.2 0.051|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1800Z 54 06008KT 31.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 4.1 0.075|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110323/1900Z 55 07008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 5.0 0.059|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2000Z 56 08008KT 31.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 5.6 0.083|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2100Z 57 09009KT 31.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 6.2 0.039|| 0.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2200Z 58 09009KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.043|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.05 0| 0|100 110323/2300Z 59 08009KT 30.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.028|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.07 0| 0|100 110324/0000Z 60 07010KT 30.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 6.5 0.035|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110324/0100Z 61 07011KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 6.8 0.035|| 0.63 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0200Z 62 07010KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 7.0 0.031|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0300Z 63 07011KT 30.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 7.5 0.075|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0400Z 64 08012KT 30.0F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 7.6 0.051|| 0.79 0.05|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.07 51| 49| 0 110324/0500Z 65 08013KT 30.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.055|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.05 0.06|| 0.13 0| 0|100 110324/0600Z 66 07014KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.05 0.02|| 0.15 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110324/0700Z 67 07014KT 30.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.043|| 0.91 0.09|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 3| 97| 0 110324/0800Z 68 06014KT 30.4F SNOW 15:1| 1.7|| 9.4 0.114|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/0900Z 69 05010KT 30.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.9||10.2 0.154|| 1.18 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1000Z 70 04010KT 30.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.7||11.0 0.079|| 1.26 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1100Z 71 03012KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.4||11.3 0.047|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1200Z 72 04012KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.3||11.6 0.031|| 1.33 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110324/1300Z 73 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2||11.9 0.024|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1400Z 74 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2||12.1 0.016|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1500Z 75 02012KT 30.9F SNOW 21:1| 0.3||12.4 0.016|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1600Z 76 01011KT 31.1F SNOW 25:1| 0.2||12.6 0.008|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1700Z 77 36011KT 31.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.1||12.7 0.004|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 look at the Bufkit output for KMMU for the NAM....12.7". Look at the clown maps as well, how is 7-14" a bad forecast at this point? My forecast is not for NYC, it's for MBY just as I pointed out in my post. 110323/1300Z 49 04004KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 110323/1400Z 50 05004KT 31.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 1.2 0.063|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1500Z 51 06006KT 31.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 2.1 0.079|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1600Z 52 04007KT 32.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 2.5 0.043|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1700Z 53 05008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 3.2 0.051|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/1800Z 54 06008KT 31.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 4.1 0.075|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110323/1900Z 55 07008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 5.0 0.059|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2000Z 56 08008KT 31.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 5.6 0.083|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2100Z 57 09009KT 31.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 6.2 0.039|| 0.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0 110323/2200Z 58 09009KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.043|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.05 0| 0|100 110323/2300Z 59 08009KT 30.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.028|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.07 0| 0|100 110324/0000Z 60 07010KT 30.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 6.5 0.035|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110324/0100Z 61 07011KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 6.8 0.035|| 0.63 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0200Z 62 07010KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 7.0 0.031|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0300Z 63 07011KT 30.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 7.5 0.075|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 110324/0400Z 64 08012KT 30.0F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 7.6 0.051|| 0.79 0.05|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.07 51| 49| 0 110324/0500Z 65 08013KT 30.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.055|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.05 0.06|| 0.13 0| 0|100 110324/0600Z 66 07014KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.05 0.02|| 0.15 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 110324/0700Z 67 07014KT 30.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.043|| 0.91 0.09|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 3| 97| 0 110324/0800Z 68 06014KT 30.4F SNOW 15:1| 1.7|| 9.4 0.114|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/0900Z 69 05010KT 30.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.9||10.2 0.154|| 1.18 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1000Z 70 04010KT 30.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.7||11.0 0.079|| 1.26 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1100Z 71 03012KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.4||11.3 0.047|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1200Z 72 04012KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.3||11.6 0.031|| 1.33 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110324/1300Z 73 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2||11.9 0.024|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1400Z 74 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2||12.1 0.016|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1500Z 75 02012KT 30.9F SNOW 21:1| 0.3||12.4 0.016|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1600Z 76 01011KT 31.1F SNOW 25:1| 0.2||12.6 0.008|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 110324/1700Z 77 36011KT 31.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.1||12.7 0.004|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0 If the NAM clown maps were remotely accurate from 60hrs out I'd have like 300" of snow this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Because you are relying on one model for your forecast, the one that happens to produce the most snow. A more prudent forecast for your area combining all the data, would be 3-6 inches of snow. look at the Bufkit output for KMMU for the NAM....12.7". Look at the clown maps as well, how is 7-14" a bad forecast at this point? My forecast is not for NYC, it's for MBY just as I pointed out in my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 look at the Bufkit output for KMMU for the NAM....12.7". Look at the clown maps as well, how is 7-14" a bad forecast at this point? My forecast is not for NYC, it's for MBY just as I pointed out in my post. Do u honestly think this will verify in this set up? I'm not trying to argue, just wondering if ur wishing or if u really see this happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 look at the Bufkit output for KMMU for the NAM....12.7". Look at the clown maps as well, how is 7-14" a bad forecast at this point? My forecast is not for NYC, it's for MBY just as I pointed out in my post. Okay, so your method of forecasting is to take the 66 hour NAM, rip and read the bufkit and clown maps, and type up the amounts? Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Noreaster, I was thinking about making the call to DSNY to get ready for that 12"+ that the NAM is showing for the city. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Do u honestly think this will verify in this set up? I'm not trying to argue, just wondering if ur wishing or if u really see this happening? If I took the 12z NAM as is, I would be calling for a foot plus. 7-14" seems reasonable and gives a large amount of room for error. My guess is that when the text output comes out for the 12z GFS, it won't be much different than the NAM for the site in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The temperatures would be warmer than the NAM is showing here at the coast if that strong of an ENE flow develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If I took the 12z NAM as is, I would be calling for a foot plus. And you would also be fired from whatever job you would be working at in that fantasy world 7-14" seems reasonable and gives a large amount of room for error Cool, I will call for 1-15" then. My guess is that when the text output comes out for the 12z GFS, it won't be much different than the NAM for the site in question. My guess is that it is, want to bet your next week of posting on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I see where this is going, oh well I'll just sit back and laugh next week if the higher amounts verify, and if not, thats fine too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If I took the 12z NAM as is, I would be calling for a foot plus. 7-14" seems reasonable and gives a large amount of room for error. My guess is that when the text output comes out for the 12z GFS, it won't be much different than the NAM for the site in question. The text output will NOT be similar. The depth of the warmth is much more significant as a result of the WAA ahead of the primary low that cuts to our west on the GFS which it seems to keep emphasizing. The NAM is more progressive and transfers the energy quicker allowing for the column to stay cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The temperatures would be warmer than the NAM is showing here at the coast if that strong of an ENE flow develops. The good news is that once the surface low develops offshore we have a good northeast flow developing http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAPA_12z/f69.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 The temperatures would be warmer than the NAM is showing here at the coast if that strong of an ENE flow develops. As long as winds remain north of due east i say we are fine. Water temps are probably right around their coldest all year right now. Upper 30s east/northeast of montauk, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Looking at Ukie. Looks like NAM. 48 hour 850 temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 60 hour Ukie 850 temps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I see where this is going, oh well I'll just sit back and laugh next week if the higher amounts verify, and if not, thats fine too I honestly want to know where u come up with the 12z gfs looking anything like the 12z NAM...NAm looks much colder, and gfs doesn't have much snow for our area at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Precip maps show the heaviest precip staying south of NYC. So UKIE is actually a little south of NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Ooops. OK. Ukie has heaviest precip over NYC. Its as cold as NAM as well. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Unless the Euro comes in warm, the GFS will be left completely by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Unless the Euro comes in warm, the GFS will be left completely by itself. GGEM as well. Should be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I honestly want to know where u come up with the 12z gfs looking anything like the 12z NAM...NAm looks much colder, and gfs doesn't have much snow for our area at all Just because sometimes the maps can be decieving. I know alot of times it will look like ~1.25" of QPF but when you look at the text outputs it will say something like 2.0" of QPF because of very small bullseyes and such that are hard to see without looking at a very zoomed in map. I'm obviously not a met and not getting paid to make forecasts so I'm giving my amateur perspective. I don't want to here your wrong, I want to know why I'm wrong so I can learn from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Ooops. OK. Ukie has heaviest precip over NYC. Its as cold as NAM as well. Nice. 7-14" lol jk Nam has some back up atleast, im pretty sure the canadian has consistently showing a snow event for NYC metro. Game on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GGEM is cold and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Just because sometimes the maps can be decieving. I know alot of times it will look like ~1.25" of QPF but when you look at the text outputs it will say something like 2.0" of QPF because of very small bullseyes and such that are hard to see without looking at a very zoomed in map. I'm obviously not a met and not getting paid to make forecasts so I'm giving my amateur perspective. I don't want to here your wrong, I want to know why I'm wrong so I can learn from it. Do we get to correct your grammar as well as your forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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