3/23 - 3/24 Winter Storm

[Weathergun]

I can't believe we have a legit shot at seeing snowfall on March 23rd with an 850 low closed over Ohio

I don't really believe it either. But if the 700mb and 850mb lows transfer and tightly close off quickly to the south of LI by 12z Thurs, it might happen. I'm skeptical of the NAM.

[NJwinter23]

I don't really believe it either. But if the 700mb and 850mb lows transfer and tightly close off quickly to the south of LI by 12z Thurs, it might happen. I'm skeptical of the NAM.

It's not all that outlandish. April 2003 had this set up.

[tmagan]

12Z RGEM brings snow, snow/rain mix to our doorstep by 12Z Wednesday.

[bmc10]

If I could lock in the 12z NAM solution....I WOULD!

[IsentropicLift]

12z NAM for KMMU

110323/1400Z 50 05004KT 31.8F SNOW 20:1| 1.2|| 1.2 0.063|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/1500Z 51 06006KT 31.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.9|| 2.1 0.079|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/1600Z 52 04007KT 32.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 2.5 0.043|| 0.19 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/1700Z 53 05008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 3.2 0.051|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/1800Z 54 06008KT 31.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 4.1 0.075|| 0.31 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110323/1900Z 55 07008KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.9|| 5.0 0.059|| 0.37 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2000Z 56 08008KT 31.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.6|| 5.6 0.083|| 0.45 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2100Z 57 09009KT 31.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 6.2 0.039|| 0.49 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2200Z 58 09009KT 30.9F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.043|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.05|| 0.05 0| 0|100

110323/2300Z 59 08009KT 30.4F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 6.2 0.028|| 0.56 0.00|| 0.00 0.03|| 0.07 0| 0|100

110324/0000Z 60 07010KT 30.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 6.5 0.035|| 0.60 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110324/0100Z 61 07011KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 6.8 0.035|| 0.63 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

110324/0200Z 62 07010KT 29.8F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 7.0 0.031|| 0.67 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

110324/0300Z 63 07011KT 30.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.5|| 7.5 0.075|| 0.74 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

110324/0400Z 64 08012KT 30.0F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 7.6 0.051|| 0.79 0.05|| 0.05 0.00|| 0.07 51| 49| 0

110324/0500Z 65 08013KT 30.0F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.055|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.05 0.06|| 0.13 0| 0|100

110324/0600Z 66 07014KT 29.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.020|| 0.87 0.00|| 0.05 0.02|| 0.15 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110324/0700Z 67 07014KT 30.0F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 7.6 0.043|| 0.91 0.09|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 3| 97| 0

110324/0800Z 68 06014KT 30.4F SNOW 15:1| 1.7|| 9.4 0.114|| 1.02 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/0900Z 69 05010KT 30.7F SNOW 6:1| 0.9||10.2 0.154|| 1.18 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1000Z 70 04010KT 30.7F SNOW 9:1| 0.7||11.0 0.079|| 1.26 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1100Z 71 03012KT 30.6F SNOW 8:1| 0.4||11.3 0.047|| 1.30 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1200Z 72 04012KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.3||11.6 0.031|| 1.33 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

110324/1300Z 73 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.2||11.9 0.024|| 1.36 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1400Z 74 03012KT 30.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.2||12.1 0.016|| 1.37 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1500Z 75 02012KT 30.9F SNOW 21:1| 0.3||12.4 0.016|| 1.39 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1600Z 76 01011KT 31.1F SNOW 25:1| 0.2||12.6 0.008|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1700Z 77 36011KT 31.5F SNOW 21:1| 0.1||12.7 0.004|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0

110324/1800Z 78 35012KT 32.0F 0:1| 0.0||12.7 0.000|| 1.40 0.00|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.15 0| 0| 0

[IsentropicLift]

12z NAM KHPN

110323/1500Z 51 08004KT 35.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 71| 0| 29

110323/1600Z 52 05006KT 33.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.051|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 85| 0| 15

110323/1700Z 53 07007KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.043|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12

110323/1800Z 54 07007KT 33.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110323/1900Z 55 08008KT 32.5F SNOW 18:1| 0.7|| 0.7 0.039|| 0.16 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2000Z 56 09007KT 31.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 1.3 0.059|| 0.22 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2100Z 57 09008KT 31.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 1.5 0.028|| 0.24 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2200Z 58 09009KT 31.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 1.6 0.016|| 0.26 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 100| 0| 0

110323/2300Z 59 07009KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 1.6 0.012|| 0.27 0.00|| 0.00 0.01|| 0.01 0| 0|100

110324/0000Z 60 07009KT 31.6F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 1.6 0.024|| 0.30 0.00|| 0.00 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110324/0100Z 61 07010KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 1.9 0.028|| 0.32 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0200Z 62 07012KT 31.6F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 2.0 0.020|| 0.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0300Z 63 08012KT 31.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 2.5 0.035|| 0.38 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0400Z 64 08013KT 31.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 2.9 0.055|| 0.43 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0500Z 65 08013KT 31.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 3.2 0.035|| 0.47 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0600Z 66 08014KT 31.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.2|| 3.4 0.035|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110324/0700Z 67 07015KT 31.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 3.7 0.035|| 0.54 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0800Z 68 07015KT 31.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 4.2 0.047|| 0.59 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/0900Z 69 06014KT 32.0F SNOW 14:1| 1.7|| 5.9 0.118|| 0.70 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1000Z 70 05012KT 32.2F SNOW 8:1| 1.2|| 7.1 0.142|| 0.85 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1100Z 71 04012KT 32.0F SNOW 14:1| 1.2|| 8.4 0.087|| 0.93 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1200Z 72 04013KT 31.5F SNOW 18:1| 1.0|| 9.3 0.055|| 0.99 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L%

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

110324/1300Z 73 03013KT 31.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 9.9 0.051|| 1.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1400Z 74 02013KT 31.1F SNOW 15:1| 0.4||10.3 0.028|| 1.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1500Z 75 01012KT 31.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.3||10.6 0.016|| 1.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1600Z 76 36012KT 32.2F SNOW 23:1| 0.2||10.8 0.008|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1700Z 77 35012KT 32.5F SNOW 23:1| 0.1||10.9 0.004|| 1.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

110324/1800Z 78 35012KT 32.5F SNOW 22:1| 0.1||11.0 0.004|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

110324/1900Z 79 34012KT 33.1F 0:1| 0.0||11.0 0.000|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0| 0

110324/2000Z 80 34012KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0||11.0 0.000|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0| 0

110324/2100Z 81 33012KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0||11.0 0.000|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0| 0

110324/2200Z 82 33012KT 33.8F 0:1| 0.0||11.0 0.000|| 1.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0| 0

[tornadojay]

fwiw... KEWR and KLGA seem to be in the 8-9 inch range per 12Z NAM Bufkit.

[earthlight]

Some high resolution NAM maps for the morning crew

[earthlight]

Oh man...it was only a matter of time

[earthlight]

Compared to it's 00z run, the 12z GFS is much colder already through 42 hrs..further south with the surface low, too.

[SACRUS]

Compared to it's 00z run, the 12z GFS is much colder already through 42 hrs..further south with the surface low, too.

Noticed that too. March going out like a lion. Cold this weekend may be equally big story. Was it 80 72 hours ago?

[NJwinter23]

12z gfs coming in a little warmer at 850 through hr 45 compared to 12z nam. 0c line Bradford, PA to Atlantic City, NJ

but as John has pointed out, it is colder than it's 00z run thus far

[NJwinter23]

Noticed that too. March going out like a lion. Cold this weekend may be equally big story. Was it 80 72 hours ago?

Ah that aint nothin. You guys remember March 2007 when we were 80 degrees, then picked up 6" of sleet in the low 20s a day or 2 later?

[tornadojay]

looks like the 850 zero line is right through NYC at 57

[earthlight]

GFS is still warm at 57 hours..and further north with the surface low

[RU848789]

Oh man...it was only a matter of time

Here's my analysis: Wow!

[bmc10]

GFS is still warm at 57 hours..and further north with the surface low

Still, drastic changes from 0z. It is heading in the right direction.

[ag3]

Still, drastic changes from 0z. It is heading in the right direction.

Yes, compared to 0z. But 6z GFS was much colder and much more south.

[SACRUS]

Ah that aint nothin. You guys remember March 2007 when we were 80 degrees, then picked up 6" of sleet in the low 20s a day or 2 later?

Sure do. Also remember mid 90s in April 2002 followed by 40s a few days later. GFS does look colder than 00z but would likely limit meaningful snow to n-nj.

[tornadojay]

it is definitely colder.. very close call now, per GFS.. 850 zero line really doesn't make it too far north of the city and then it retreats back south again.. surface temps don't look terrible either.

[Chris L]

any chance that the NAM is running too cold?

[NEG NAO]

I don't understand why some folks here think its not possible to have a snowstorm on March 24 with 12 + inches - its happened before later then 3/24 - set up has to be near perfect and we are heading in that direction.....

[Rjay]

Troll alert.

Yes, I must be a troll bc i disagree with your over the top take on the 6z gfs....it didn't show anything like u said it did.....12z nam looks wow tho

[bmc10]

Yes, compared to 0z. But 6z GFS was much colder and much more south.

Yea well until the GFS stops with this primary lp non sense, it will continue to be warmer.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

this is awesome.....im sitting this one out but watching from the bench. some fun tracking to close out....errr, begin spring. thx guys!

[TheTrials]

any chance that the NAM is running too cold?

Probably both, GFS too warm and nam too cold, so somewhere in the middle seems about right at this time.

[IsentropicLift]

Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter.

[IsentropicLift]

Would think WS watches should be flying very soon north and west of LI.

[earthlight]

any chance that the NAM is running too cold?

As TheTrials said, more often than not the NAM is too cold and the GFS a bit too warm in these scenarios. So take a middle ground and you probably have a reasonable forecast.

[pazzo83]

Very nice setup, espeically just west of the city. I'm going with a forecast of 7-14" for now for my back yard. My thinking is 9-12" seems most likely but I wouldn't be suprised to see 7" or 14" for that matter.

Is this the official Pompton Plains forecast?