NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 or should we say winter/spring storm..... 12Z GFS surface temps upper 20's low 30's NYC Metro - Northern NJ Wednesday Night - 3 - 6 inches frozen around ..56 qpf at newark will be melting at the start before sundown http://68.226.77.253...FS/GFS_Kewr.txt http://raleighwx.ame...s2mtemps108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ggem agrees 100%. precip maps are all snow from southern jersey and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like it could be a nice little event, and the pattern up north is somewhat supportive. Reminds me of April 2003, actually. It would fit my prediction of a "last hurrah" in March. How much does Central Park need to get to 65"? (I thought they'd end up at 65-70" after the 2/10 system) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Algreek what did the 00z euro show last night? Thanks, im on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like it could be a nice little event, and the pattern up north is somewhat supportive. Reminds me of April 2003, actually. It would fit my prediction of a "last hurrah" in March. How much does Central Park need to get to 65"? (I thought they'd end up at 65-70" after the 2/10 system) How about another hurrah in April, 1996 style HM and a few others seem to think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 EURO -- looks great 992 as it crosses DE, then it bombs out to sub 984 as it hooks up the coast Definately more then 0.75" QPF, with the 32 line just to the NW of NYC, and 850s never get north of NYC wow, now sub 980 at 126 wow if this is all snow, someones gotta check the soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This might be one of those amplified bias euro runs but there is a 980mb low with cold air to work with over the BM or just east of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 EURO -- looks great 992 as it crosses DE, then it bombs out to sub 984 as it hooks up the coast Definately more then 0.75" QPF, with the 32 line just to the NW of NYC, and 850s never get north of NYC wow, now sub 980 at 126 wow if this is all snow, someones gotta check the soundings Looks like from nyc north its all snow......impressive late season storm on the euro...nyc is in the low-mid 30's the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This might be one of those amplified bias euro runs but there is a 980mb low with cold air to work with over the BM or just east of it... Nzucker storm is alive and well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nzucker storm is alive and well Just a beautiful run of the euro. Would easily be all snow for you with that elevation, and most likely NYC metro as well.. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nzucker storm is alive and well what im worried about is any more bumps north...we are right on the line...def jump north from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/leads_images/Models/GFS/CON/CP/large/surface/2011031912_CON_GFS_SFC_SLP_THK_PRECIP_WINDS_228.gif ANOTHER threat at 228? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Clown map: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 wow next weekend is very chilly......lows in the teens nw of the city. The blocking is back....another winter threat around 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The Euro is a borderline wet snow event north of Philly this Wed-Thu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 so we get the block at late March, and look what happens.. Atlantic domination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Euro is all snow from NYC north. Soundings confirm. Close to 1" of Qpf. And next weekend surface temps are showing -7.8 degrees. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 1 inch of QPF? wow. impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Euro is all snow from NYC north. Soundings confirm. Close to 1" of Qpf. And next weekend surface temps are showing -7.8 degrees. Wow. CoastalWx mentioned in the NE thread that the 850 and 700 mb lows track pretty far north on the GFS arguing for a farther north surface depiction. Guess that's something that will have to be watched over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12Z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 CoastalWx mentioned in the NE thread that the 850 and 700 mb lows track pretty far north on the GFS arguing for a farther north surface depiction. Guess that's something that will have to be watched over the next several days. Yeah that was on the ensemble mean.......the mean has nyc all rain.....its somthing that def has to be watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Our area = winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 1.08" of Qpf from Wednesday 18z to Thursday 18z according to soundings. Hardest precip wednesday overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12Z UKMET is a nice BM hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It's definitely a positive this thing would be happening overnight, dare I say with the late-March sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 1.08" of Qpf from Wednesday 18z to Thursday 18z according to soundings. Hardest precip wednesday overnight. How much as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 How much as snow? Euro is all snow from NYC north. Close to 1" of Qpf. Post #17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nice agreement this far out. It would be a brilliant shock to so many for a storm to impact us this late in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Nice agreement this far out. It would be a brilliant shock to so many for a storm to impact us this late in March. Im still going for a 1996 analog with this not being the last one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The old Far East teleconnection looks like its going to work out with a few days to go before the specifics of the amplification here in the East are worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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