Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 302 WWUS20 KWNS 191444 SEL1 SPC WW 191444 KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-192100- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 51 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 945 AM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI NORTHERN OKLAHOMA EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 945 AM UNTIL 400 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA KANSAS TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF JOPLIN MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO/NM APPROACHES. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Just pushed out my severe weather threat area for today across the KS/OK regions. Seeing a decent instability across the Central to Eastern part of Oklahoma, running from and Oklahoma City to Okmulgee line. SmartModel picking this up with LI's of around -6, surface base CAPE's running right around 1,000 (J/kg) also seeing the moisture tongue riding right up into that area. Another areas is across the TX Panhandle to SW Oklahoma, not seeing as much positive dynamics in that areas, but can't rule some isolated severe storms across this area. City specific forecasts have also been uploaded. Any thoughts on the severe weather today across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 185 WWUS20 KWNS 192247 SEL2 SPC WW 192247 TXZ000-200400- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 52 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 545 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL 1100 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF LUBBOCK TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE WITHIN A SLY FLOW OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR. MLCAPES LOCALLY TO 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT OF BULK SHEAR DO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSITY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025. ...HALES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Developing supercell N of LBB right now. Can't tell if it's completely surface-based or not. Wish I'd stuck to my plan from last night of driving down there... probably the only supercell we'll see within 300 miles of here with this trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks to have some pretty decent size hail, although I agree, tough to tell if it is 100% surface based. Nice radar presentation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Texas Panhandle has some good surface based CAPES, seeing 1000-1500 (J/kg) across this area, this area has been increasing instability over the last 3 hours. Also seeing sfc LI's around -6 to -7 in that area. I think there is a potential for some turing within the storms across this area, decent Helicity values. Also still showing another area across the C. Oklahoma and Eastern OK regions, think we will see some severe weather storm developing in this area soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 701 PM CDT SAT MAR 19 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. SOUTHEASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. NORTHWESTERN CROSBY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS. * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 657 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD 10 MILES WEST OF PETERSBURG...OR ABOUT 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF ABERNATHY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 nice looking supercell on radar north of LBB with the gust front just ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 For future reference, if you're going to start a thread add dates to the title...otherwise don't bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 nice looking supercell on radar north of LBB with the gust front just ahead of it. So awesome to see that kind of echo again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looking at the latest RUC, seeing that cell north of KLBB in an area of 300 Helicity, and SFC CAPE's around 1600 (j/kg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looks like the trailing cells, west of LBB, have the best environment right now. Better access to instability and shear and boundaries from the lead cell to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 As the trailing cells decide to shoot up a 78 dBZ core with a hail spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Cell west of LBB looked to be trying to form a BWER at one point, not quite as organized now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Cell west of LBB looked to be trying to form a BWER at one point, not quite as organized now The scan at 00:48z looks like it's trying to do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The scan at 00:48z looks like it's trying to do it again. Aldo dbz back over 75 - surprised we haven't seen any larger hail reports yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I like that there is over 70 kts storm relative inflow into that updraft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I like that there is over 70 kts storm relative inflow into that updraft. Too bad the environment gets pretty hostile pretty quickly as it heads east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Aldo dbz back over 75 - surprised we haven't seen any larger hail reports yet Looks like a golf ball hail report got added, for when that 75+ dBZ flare up occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nice radar presentation currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nice radar presentation currently And a frame later - not quite so good anymore hah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 They could probably cancel the SVR for Floyd County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 David Drummond is on that cell near Lubbock. http://www.chasertv.com/api/static_pages/lite/308_david-drummond.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 For future reference, if you're going to start a thread add dates to the title...otherwise don't bother. Your a mod now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Your a mod now? No but he has a valid point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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