Mikehobbyst Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like moderate to heavy 32 degree isothermal snowfall that has trouble sticking to pavement, but covers the grass from 10 AM to 2 PM with 850's and 925's supporting snowfall to the ground. Looks like 1-2 inches on the grass and car tops based on temp profile for the beginning of event. By 2 PM temps warm and it goes to a 40 degree rain and full melting. Models are too warm with 2 meter temps for Monday late morning regardless wih cold air just over the immediate surface. SE wind and sun at 50 degree declination will really hurt this event from shocking some. If the beginning of the event was overnight it could have been a 4 inch snow area wide with 850 and 925 fully supporting snow, even with SE winds for awhile. even the next two weeks it looks like the best will be some 32 degree days for highs and most days between 35-40 with the sun taking a toll on keeping frigid air around for weeks on end. The -NAO and -AO for the next two weeks will flush out the cold air and force it to modify as it keeps dropping into the northeast until it gets mostly used up by 4/10. Any relaxation post 4/10 can mean warmth and sustainable warmth for the second half of April with mitigated backdoor. I've heard several posts about a hot May and could see it happening as we had hot Mays in the cool summer years like 1992, 1996 and 2000 which I am sure are decent analogs this year based on the -ENSO weakening, and hot summers proceeding those years as well. A hot summer is not in the cards this year, but it doesn't mean 60's every day in July either, plenty of 70's during the cool summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like moderate to heavy 32 degree isothermal snowfall that has trouble sticking to pavement, but covers the grass from 10 AM to 2 PM with 850's and 925's supporting snowfall to the ground. Looks like 1-2 inches on the grass and car tops based on temp profile for the beginning of event. By 2 PM temps warm and it goes to a 40 degree rain and full melting. Models are too warm with 2 meter temps for Monday late morning regardless wih cold air just over the immediate surface. SE wind and sun at 50 degree declination will really hurt this event from shocking some. If the beginning of the event was overnight it could have been a 4 inch snow area wide with 850 and 925 fully supporting snow, even with SE winds for awhile. even the next two weeks it looks like the best will be some 32 degree days for highs and most days between 35-40 with the sun taking a toll on keeping frigid air around for weeks on end. The -NAO and -AO for the next two weeks will flush out the cold air and force it to modify as it keeps dropping into the northeast until it gets mostly used up by 4/10. Any relaxation post 4/10 can mean warmth and sustainable warmth for the second half of April with mitigated backdoor. I've heard several posts about a hot May and could see it happening as we had hot Mays in the cool summer years like 1992, 1996 and 2000 which I am sure are decent analogs this year based on the -ENSO weakening, and hot summers proceeding those years as well. A hot summer is not in the cards this year, but it doesn't mean 60's every day in July either, plenty of 70's during the cool summers. At Newark mondays event as snow is only .08 BUT Wednesday Night is the larger event as all of the heavier precip falls as snow at night probably 3 - 5 inches acccording to the 0Z GFS in Northern NJ and there is going to be snow on the ground from Northern Monmouth County northward with higher amounts the further north and west you travel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 12z Nam is really interesting for the NYC area. 850 temps are near -3. The problem are the surface temps. They are pretty warm. Noaa has snow to rain for the NYC area. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_850_054l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like one of the rare events where temps will be colder as you head east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I think we'll probably see a period of sleet Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like one of the rare events where temps will be colder as you head east. Sounds like April 1996 lol, the colder temps in conjunction with the heavier precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfsp72114.gif around .75 for wednesdays event mostly snow NYC metro till the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Ggem precip maps show all snow for Wednsday for NYC. Rain line is down in southern jersey. Looks like close to .50" Qpf as all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 There is some support in the analogs for snow http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails.php?reg=EAST&model=GFS212&fhr=120&flg=new&map=COSN&sort=2mTMP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 This should be a brief snow/sleet mix in Somerset County/Hunterdon County N and W in NJ before a couple hours later turning to all rain. This is reminding me of 11/25/10. CMC IMO is closest as to where the Rain/Snow line should be with this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No time to do the research... What's the timing look like for going above freezing tomorrow morning? My summer tires suck in the snow and I need to be at work in the city by 10 or so. What are the chances I have slippery goo to contend with in southern Putnam/northern Westchester? I guess just as important is what are the chances the pavement gets cold enough for it to matter after the sun comes up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 No time to do the research... What's the timing look like for going above freezing tomorrow morning? My summer tires suck in the snow and I need to be at work in the city by 10 or so. What are the chances I have slippery goo to contend with in southern Putnam/northern Westchester? I guess just as important is what are the chances the pavement gets cold enough for it to matter after the sun comes up? I wouldn't worry, the 12z NAM and 12z GFS show this as basically a rain event with just a bit of sloppy mix possible before the storm; surface temperatures are mild because of southerly flow ahead of the low, and 850s don't hold out long with the high pressure retreating fast. Roads should be fine for tomorrow morning's commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Thanx NZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Thanx NZ 18z GFS does start us off as snow but I doubt it accumulates on roads too much.... Upton has snow/sleet tonight in my forecast with a low of 33F. Think Westchester can pick up a quick inch on grassy surfaces? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 If you go to the top of your hill ....... I'm having a hard time seeing where the cold air is going to come from for any more than that inch. This is a 12hr water vapor I like to look at - http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=he and it really looks like there's nothing to stop this from sliding just a bit too far north to do us much good here. You can see a bunch of other good loops by using the quick links at the top center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 haven't been following this storm with extreme details, but last check looked like it was relatively warmer than forecast back in PA and western NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 38F here... OKX is forecasting RA/SN mix after 3am... a little bit OT but what's with the radar images from the "Southern MS Valley Sector" and the "Central Great Lakes Sector"...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Precipitation is rapidly approaching the area from E PA, looks like some heavy banding. Temperatures may be a bit warm in Westchester, however....My house thermometer reads 37F, and HPN is at 37/30...local Wunderground station downtown is reading 38.7/33, so the dewpoint has been inching up unfortunately. GFS does show 850s staying below 0C until the morning but 900mb to the surface is pretty mild, so it's not going to be a very exciting event in all probability. I will stay up a bit longer to see, in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES. A HALF INCH HAS ACCUMULATED SO FAR. ROADS ARE COMPLETELY COVERED. WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 HEAVY SNOW CURRENTLY FALLING WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 31 DEGREES. A HALF INCH HAS ACCUMULATED SO FAR. ROADS ARE COMPLETELY COVERED. WOW. This is awesome news, that band looked like snow, had the radar signature, but I wasn't sure considering the warm BL. What elevation are you at? Do you think it will be snow when it arrives here in Westchester County, about 25 miles north of Central Park, with an elevation of 350'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Snowing moderately in Hackettstown at 33º. Roads have remained wet, but sidewalks are starting to accumulate. All other surfaces have been accumulating and probably closing in on 1/2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This is awesome news, that band looked like snow, had the radar signature, but I wasn't sure considering the warm BL. What elevation are you at? Do you think it will be snow when it arrives here in Westchester County, about 25 miles north of Central Park, with an elevation of 350'? I think you will probably start as a light rain/mix initially, but it becomes a wet snow once the heavier returns move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I think you will probably start as a light rain/mix initially, but it becomes a wet snow once the heavier returns move in. What elevation are you at? P.S. Is anyone having trouble with the NOAA radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 What elevation are you at? Hackettstown is in a valley and around 400-550ft .. the surrounding ridges are up around 1000ft and are definitely getting covered on all surfaces nicely..in fact, our roads are starting to get covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Have 1 inch here now with moderate snow still falling and a temperature of 31.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I am at 680 feet. I doubt it will be snow as you head east toward the city. The GFS did a fantastic job of showing this cold wedge of air moving into my location. I don't see why it would make a difference...850s are colder to the NE and I'm just about directly NE of you. My house is at 350' and the woods behind my house get over 400', so I do have some elevation to guard against the warm BL. The problem is that the banding keeps breaking up as it approaches NYC; at this point, it's more a question of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hope you get it too, but I am concerned about temperatures there at the surface. The GFS did show this cold wedge of air in NW NJ at the surface. It is 31 degrees here now. I don't see why it would make a difference...850s are colder to the NE and I'm just about directly NE of you. My house is at 350' and the woods behind my house get over 400', so I do have some elevation to guard against the warm BL. The problem is that the banding keeps breaking up as it approaches NYC; at this point, it's more a question of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 6z GFS has caved to the Canadian, NOGAPS, and NAM! It is now a massive hit on Wednesday/Thursday for Northern New Jersey and NYC! Looks like 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hope you get it too, but I am concerned about temperatures there at the surface. The GFS did show this cold wedge of air in NW NJ at the surface. It is 31 degrees here now. There is no wedge of cold air being filtered into NW NJ. The onset of precip in the warmer boundary layer is starting as light rain/mix at the start, but then air temps wetbulb and it flips to a shot of wet snow..This hourly Canadian demonstrates this pretty well. we were in the upper 30s in Hackettstown before precip started. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Thank you for the clarification. It looked like a cold wedge of air to me on the GFS in NW NJ, but I am not a met by any means. There is no wedge of cold air being filtered into NW NJ. The onset of precip in the warmer boundary layer is starting as light rain/mix at the start, but then air temps wetbulb and it flips to a shot of wet snow..This hourly Canadian demonstrates this pretty well. we were in the upper 30s in Hackettstown before precip started. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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