kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 How is it compared to the 0z as far as track/temps? colder, 00Z was quite high... YYZ: 0.33 BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nothing good on the Euro here Really close at PTK... ~.7" with 2m and 850mb temps < 1 pretty much the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 colder, 00Z was quite high... YYZ: 0.33 BTW Yeah, I thought it looked a bit colder. Thx for the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Not liking the trends with this one, but between the seasonal trend of SE trenders and Detroit being a snow magnet this winter, Im holding out hope. 12z GFS, while warm for the storm, has a very wintry look its entire run, including another ice/snow event then another snow event less than a week after the Wed storm. DTW is at 6th snowiest winter now, needs 1.6" to hit #5, 4.2" to hit #4, 6.5" to hit #3, 10.5" to hit #2, and 26.1" to hit #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 If someone gets time could they post qpf for klse for hydrology purposes. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 If someone gets time could they post qpf for klse for hydrology purposes. Thanks in advance. 1.52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Wow thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 One reason I still dont turst the models is they are off with the current storm and where the precip is. The NAM has it north of here yet looking at the radar the heavy stuff its heading right this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 One reason I still dont turst the models is they are off with the current storm and where the precip is. The NAM has it north of here yet looking at the radar the heavy stuff its heading right this way. Plus, we were supposed to be in the mid to upper 40s here today with rain...been in the mid to upper 30s with rain, snow, and sleet mixed all afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Good write up by DTX UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT NORTHEASTTHROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. 12Z MODEL SUITE STRUGGLED A LITTLE WITH WHERE EXACTLY TO TRACK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WITH THE GFS/GEM/EURO TRACKING THE CENTER MORE ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO AND THE NAM AND UKMET TAKING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THIS LENDS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SUCH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...AND MAKES PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST A CHALLENGE. MODEL SPREAD APPEARED TO BE TIED TO SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER PV...WITH MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE WAVE EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE CANADIAN LOW SEEN ON THE GFS VERSUS THE NAM. GIVEN THE RELATIVE SMALLNESS AND CURRENT POOR SAMPLING OF BOTH THESE FEATURES...CANNOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ONE TRACK OVER THE OTHER. CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/GEM/EURO WAS FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...LARGELY BECAUSE IT HAD SUPPORT FROM RECENT MODEL TRENDS TO A FURTHER NORTH TRACK...WHICH WAS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE INHERITED FORECAST. THIS ACTUALLY LED TO LITTLE ADJUSTMENT IN PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WATCH POTENTIAL FOR NAM/UKMET TRACK TO PAN OUT. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY NECESSITATE A BIG SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TO ADJUST HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE SOUTH AND INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES THE IDEA WITH MOSTLY RAIN FROM DETROIT AND ANN ARBOR SOUTHWARD...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN M-59 AND THE SAGINAW VALLEY. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT UP INTO MICHIGAN. LOW-LEVELS INITIALLY LOOK DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY...UNTIL LOW-LEVEL THETA-E SURGE ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING ON THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET AS IT PUSHES INTO INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO. GFS/EURO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN PROVIDING ENOUGH FORCING TO HELP THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATE DOWN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH WET-BULB EFFECTS INITIALLY SUPPORTING RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF DETROIT. ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND A NORTHWARD PROGRESSION AND THEN STALL OF THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...IN COMBINATION WITH EXCELLENT FGEN FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE...SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WARMER AIR ALOFT LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL HELP CHANGE PRECIP TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET NORTH OF DETROIT OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME QUESTION NOW AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL LIFT ALL THE WAY THROUGH MIDLAND/BAY/HURON COUNTIES. GFS/EURO TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH FOR WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE TO LIFT UP INTO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN (SOUTH OF DETROIT) SUPPORTING MOSTLY RAIN THERE. DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO INFILTRATE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...LIMITING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THERE FOR THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY BUT KEEPING THERMAL STRUCTURE FROM THE NIGHT BEFORE IN PLACE...KEEPING A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER OVER THE AREA. AFTER A BREAK TO PRECIP IN THE SOUTH...FRONT WILL DROP BACK THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BEFORE PRECIP SLOWLY TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 DTX going with the forecast following the GFS/Euro, but says NAM track bears watching and would result in ice south and significant snow north. Either solution is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Not sure I agree with DTX that the UKIE is in the "southern" camp. Looks like it was as far north as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z NAM looks like it's going to be south of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 High pressures a little SW of the 12Z...another ice storm solution here 18z NAM looks like it's going to be south of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 So far we are dodging the bullet. Suppose to hit the south part of the UP with the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 High pressures a little SW of the 12Z...another ice storm solution here Wasn't as far south as I thought it may have ended up. Pretty similar to the 12z run overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This is so similar to the 20th Feb event. Since the storm starts weakening as it heads east, I'm not sure if it will pull in so much warm air to the north.. this is going to be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Would the current thinking suggest a near to complete miss for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Would the current thinking suggest a near to complete miss for ORD? ORD has always been firmly in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 So similar except it is march 20th and not feb 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z RGEM p-type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 the disparity between the GFS/NAM is quite significant...its getting old fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 the disparity between the GFS/NAM is quite significant...its getting old fast. Yeah, GFS is going to be north of its 12z run. Model mayhem ensuing with it only being 48 hours out. Big difference I'm seeing at H5 is that the GFS starts the phase with the PV much earlier than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 18z UKIE looks like it'll stay in the northern camp. Has a sub 996 along the MN/IA line by 6z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Monster Size Snowflakes here mixing with Sleet/Rain ground was a little white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nam still holding firm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 Nam still holding firm.. Slightly warmer...start as rain south of 96 changing to FRZR....heavy snow especially 69 north, chinging over to snow/sleet to M59...just a conjecture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Slightly warmer...start as rain south of 96 changing to FRZR....heavy snow especially 69 north, chinging over to snow/sleet to M59...just a conjecture. yeah..going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Blizzard Watches in MN. I take it that this forum lacks members from that region. Still looks like the Feb 20th system. Although it appears that parts of SEMI that missed the MIX / ICE from that storm will get it with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 21, 2011 Author Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM looks mostly rain for DET/DTW with only marginal freezing at the surface thereafter per raw data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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