kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 The thing is cobb output of FRZR on the 06Z GFS is with marginal temps, so it wouldn't be much of a problem. Yeah from 8 mile north looks rough, I think even if the Euro ends up being right the Thumb wont escape the ice, best case scenario you guys root on the NAM/GGEM for a further South storm. Edit, maybe looks like even further south than 8 mile KDTW .67 Freezing Rain per 06z GFS KDET .68 Freezing Rain Oddly enough Flint stays all rain, temps never go down to below .2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The thing is cobb output of FRZR on the 06Z GFS is with marginal temps, so it wouldn't be much of a problem. Marginal yes but a shift of a degree will make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 LOT has us down for a chance of snow Wed night. Mostly rain on Wednesday, in fact, it's mostly rain this week, esp. Tues-Thurs. One of the local mets is saying we could see "shovelable snow" on Wednesday, so I guess it's a wait an see thing. I so don't want snow..... Temps, however, struggle to get to 40 through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This map doesn't make sense. I really doubt there is going to be a 12+ snow this week in central/southern ILL and the great lakes get nothing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Mostly, another storm...note the hours This map doesn't make sense. I really doubt there is going to be a 12+ snow this week in central/southern ILL but and the great lakes get nothing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 New nam is a little south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 New nam is a little south and colder Man, I'm torn between snow fatigue and loving this... Ahh the hell with it... Crazy snow always sucks me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 8 mile north 6-10" 8 mile south ice storm lols Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 "Great"Ice strorm set up on the NAM...well, not if you don't want ice....anyhow nice to see a colder run. Man, I'm torn between snow fatigue and loving this... Ahh the hell with it... Crazy snow always sucks me back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 "Great"Ice strorm set up on the NAM...well, not if you don't want ice....anyhow nice to see a colder run. Lets just let me get home Tuesday night at midnight, then it can do whatever it wants to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just noticed hr 84...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Just noticed hr 84...nice Yep, now time to go sleep before I see the GFS go north and give us lame cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Arguably one of NAM's best strengths are its handling of shallow arctic air. That + seasonal SE trend we've seen with these storms should givie you in S MI some hope, despite what the EURO/GFS are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Lock in the rarely accurate at this range Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12z GFS is looking like some of its ensemble members. 0c line is going to make a run at me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 12z GFS is looking like some of its ensemble members. 0c line is going to make a run at me. Grrr...SLP in southern MN to Chicago....pshh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Grrr...SLP in southern MN to Chicago....pshh ageostrophic flow probably locking in some chilly air at the sfc, well south of the 0c line. Could be icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Usually see the Nam the furthest north. As of now the stronger euro and gfs look more likely looking at the baraclinic zone but ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 UKIE at 72 with a tight baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 UKIE at 72 with a tight baroclinic zone. Good hit or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Good hit or no? Don't have QPF yet. Looks like the GFS as far as track is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 12z GGEM is rain for everyone except roardog (nice hit) and SSC (moderate hit). Parts of Michigan that start out as all rain transition to a mix halfway through the event before the precipitation ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEm is a close call throughout. Still think we are in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GEFS look even a touch warmer than at 6z. A lot of them take the sfc low into far southern lower MI and Lk Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEm is a close call throughout. Still think we are in the game. You're definitely in the game. As b_i said, the nuances of the phasing between the main s/w and the PV is low confidence stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You're definitely in the game. As b_i said, the nuances of the phasing between the main s/w and the PV is low confidence stuff. Yea. I hate to keep referencing past storms as all storms are different, but the models showed the similar precip mixing with the feb 20 storm this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Good hit or no? hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Hard to tell with the freebies, but the EURO might be south a touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nothing good on the Euro here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Nothing good on the Euro here How is it compared to the 0z as far as track/temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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