kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 0.57 YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Thankfully this is the range where Euro sends out a crackpot solution or 2, this sounds like its by far the furthest north Gfs actually seems to be the furthest north with the lead wave but a general consensus from all of the models is ugly out your way. Euro and gfs are def. the furthest north it'll be tough to get a decent trend going with the models at this time range, you could always go with harry and hope this just plows further north and you get rain and some storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Less northern stream interaction means N. Ugly bad for southern MI--ugly bad for ND as well for Cmich in terms of flooding. I'm starting to wonder if we might have a top 10 snowfall up here gross qpf amounts even with bad ratios we are looking at a 12-15 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Thankfully this is the range where Euro sends out a crackpot solution or 2, this sounds like its by far the furthest north I am not biting yet either since the cross polar flow and the PV interaction leave a lot left in terms of variability--but all guidance does seem to suggest less northern stream interaction and not as much "squashing" of the height field as the ejecting trough interacts with the northern stream and large area of high pressure in eastern CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Gfs actually seems to be the furthest north with the lead wave but a general consensus from all of the models is ugly out your way. Euro and gfs are def. the furthest north it'll be tough to get a decent trend going with the models at this time range, you could always go with harry and hope this just plows further north and you get rain and some storms. Storms aren't happening here, unless the low tracks over or north of us, which I don't see happening, and the GFS was mostly ice, it was warmer at 850 but the surface was cold for ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I am not biting yet either since the cross polar flow and the PV interaction leave a lot left in terms of variability--but all guidance does seem to suggest less northern stream interaction and not as much "squashing" of the height field as the ejecting trough interacts with the northern stream and large area of high pressure in eastern CA. Yeah thats the problem with these Northern stream interaction events I think maybe 1 or 2 panned out this winter, the rest were nothing but teases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm starting to wonder if we might have a top 10 snowfall up here gross qpf amounts even with bad ratios we are looking at a 12-15 inch storm. Man I wish I could analyze more--still studying UA and busy with other stuff--I just don't feel in tune with this storm. That said--good call on your part regarding a potential northern trend--granted nothing is set in stone but all globals (Euro/CMC/GFS) suggest there will be less of an influence of the northern stream. The north trend is hard to doubt here. That said--GFS shows it could even trend too far N for you with potential dry slotting if the mid level low develops just in the right spot. Still looks big either way for you (brief dry slotting or not)--but I wouldn't say 12-15 is a solid bet yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah thats the problem with these Northern stream interaction events I think maybe 1 or 2 panned out this winter, the rest were nothing but teases. Comon where's the fight, you can think of a ton of reasons why the northern stream is stronger than modeled, raobs, satelitte retrieval error, seasonal trends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Man I wish I could analyze more--still studying UA and busy with other stuff--I just don't feel in tune with this storm. That said--good call on your part regarding a potential northern trend--granted nothing is set in stone but all globals (Euro/CMC/GFS) suggest there will be less of an influence of the northern stream. The north trend is hard to doubt here. That said--GFS shows it could even trend too far N for you with potential dry slotting if the mid level low develops just in the right spot. Still looks big either for you--but I wouldn't say 12-15 is a solid bet yet. Ya with the decreased amount of northern stream influence really nothing stopping this from dry slotting us, sooner or later the low will fill in and reform further south but i'm worried about the initial push without the strong influence,blocking from the north. If the gfs edges further north the next few runs I'll really give it some weight most of the models are still a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Comon where's the fight, you can think of a ton of reasons why the northern stream is stronger than modeled, raobs, satelitte retrieval error, seasonal trends... Yes, but why rehash the same things that are known. I think letting this one play out more is for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yes, but why rehash the same things that are known. I think letting this one play out more is for the best. Ya no doubt i'm a bit gun shy to pull the trigger in either direction, we don't have the PV looming overhead with the under modeled highs, but then again we've seen this time frame models go a bit to gung-ho. Based on the northern stream pattern i'm a bit partial to saying we've about reached the northern limit but i could see a bit further nudge the ridging over the top won't let this go nuts but sharper digging further to the west might let the first low sneak up further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Ya with the decreased amount of northern stream influence really nothing stopping this from dry slotting us, sooner or later the low will fill in and reform further south but i'm worried about the initial push without the strong influence,blocking from the north. If the gfs edges further north the next few runs I'll really give it some weight most of the models are still a bit further south. Seems weird saying it but CMC is still my guidance of choice given the way it handles the low level cold air and the way all guidance has the ejecting trough developing into two distinct waves--one in MT and the secondary developing along the front in IA. It will be hard to displace that low level cold air without a stronger singular ejecting baroclinic wave and a more focused push of low level WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Seems weird saying it but CMC is still my guidance of choice given the way it handles the low level cold air and the way all guidance has the ejecting trough developing into to distinct waves--one in MT and the secondary developing along the front in IA. It will be hard to displace that low level cold air without a stronger singular ejecting baroclinic wave. Lol, i've also thought that the cmc has been awesome the past 7 days, it went from epic fail on the last storm to handing the recent storm perfectly, I think that in the next 24 hours once we get a handle on the upper levels along with how the low level cold along the northern US boundary wants to react we can get a better handle, these low level cold pools are almost always under forecasted and 2 shallow. I agree about displacing that cold, I just worry that the initial low over MT might be a hair stronger based on sat. right now it looks pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Seems weird saying it but CMC is still my guidance of choice given the way it handles the low level cold air and the way all guidance has the ejecting trough developing into two distinct waves--one in MT and the secondary developing along the front in IA. It will be hard to displace that low level cold air without a stronger singular ejecting baroclinic wave and a more focused push of low level WAA. Which is probably why even though the GFS was slightly warmer at 850mb, it was almost all ice here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Lol, i've also thought that the cmc has been awesome the past 7 days, it went from epic fail on the last storm to handing the recent storm perfectly, I think that in the next 24 hours once we get a handle on the upper levels along with how the low level cold along the northern US boundary wants to react we can get a better handle, these low level cold pools are almost always under forecasted and 2 shallow. I agree about displacing that cold, I just worry that the initial low over MT might be a hair stronger based on sat. right now it looks pretty impressive. The CMC is a pile of junk 90% of the time--and it has major problems with the way it develops its dynamic fields with increasing forecasting time--but I will agree--it has done well with the rapid de-amplification of these western troughs as they eject into the plains over the past week (dumb luck if anything). The CMC is a stalwart and it does much the same with this incoming trough--and it is weaker with the parent low amplitude wave ejecting into MT. Also noteworthy the GFS op is on the extreme end of the spectrum even at 60 hrs into the forecast wrt the GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 At 48 it seems the GFS op is the farthest NW with the parent ejecting wave into MT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The CMC is a pile of junk 90% of the time--and it has major problems with the way it develops its dynamic fields with increasing forecasting time--but I will agree--it has done well with the rapid de-amplification of these western troughs as they eject into the plains over the past week (dumb luck if anything). The CMC is a stalwart and it does much the same with this incoming trough--and it is weaker with the parent low amplitude wave ejecting into MT. Also noteworthy the GFS op is on the extreme end of the spectrum even at 60 hrs into the forecast wrt the GEFS mean. Ya gfs OP kinda freaks me out, euro kinda calmed me down but gfs then again isn't always bat sh*t insane it may have just been to progressive in the feedback in the western wave and the baroclinic zone, none of the other globals keep the qpf max that far north. It really is pretty liberal in lifting that low level cold without a strong low pressure to its west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Ya gfs OP kinda freaks me out, euro kinda calmed me down but gfs then again isn't always bat sh*t insane it may have just been to progressive in the feedback in the western wave and the baroclinic zone, none of the other globals keep the qpf max that far north. It really is pretty liberal in lifting that low level cold without a strong low pressure to its west. You in GFK all spring? Flood threat is legit--you may find yourself packing sandbags somewhere in the RRV with the way things are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You in GFK all spring? Flood threat is legit--you may find yourself packing sandbags somewhere in the RRV with the way things are going. LOL ya..... One of the teachers told us we'd all get good grades if we helped sandbag his house..... so i have an interest in the flood as well as helping the sandbags south of town if things get out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 LOL ya..... One of the teachers told us we'd all get good grades if we helped sandbag his house..... so i have an interest in the flood as well as helping the sandbags south of town if things get out of control. I'd be sandbagging his house right now then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looks like as of now its the Ggem and Nam vs euro gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Looks like as of now its the Ggem and Nam vs euro gfs GFS would still be cold enough for freezing rain. Only the Euro goes insane with the temps right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GFS would still be cold enough for freezing rain. Only the Euro goes insane with the temps right now. GFS is a devastating ice storm here by the looks of it. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 GFS is a devastating ice storm here by the looks of it. ugh. Yeah from 8 mile north looks rough, I think even if the Euro ends up being right the Thumb wont escape the ice, best case scenario you guys root on the NAM/GGEM for a further South storm. Edit, maybe looks like even further south than 8 mile KDTW .67 Freezing Rain per 06z GFS KDET .68 Freezing Rain Oddly enough Flint stays all rain, temps never go down to below .2C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 0.57 YYZ kisses from me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 kisses from me And me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 There are a number of 6z GEFS members that, at least for a while, bring the 0c 850 line NORTH of me, allowing for sleet/freezing rain here. That's pretty damn far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 And me Man love is a beautiful thing. 2/20 managed to screw me within 36 hours of the event, so I'm not cheering yet, even though the trends are encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Yeah from 8 mile north looks rough, I think even if the Euro ends up being right the Thumb wont escape the ice, best case scenario you guys root on the NAM/GGEM for a further South storm. Edit, maybe looks like even further south than 8 mile KDTW .67 Freezing Rain per 06z GFS KDET .68 Freezing Rain Oddly enough Flint stays all rain, temps never go down to below .2C Weird setup for sure. Ne winds causing frozen precip the further east you go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Weird setup for sure. Ne winds causing frozen precip the further east you go? It's not that weird. WAA is strongest near the low pressure core. As you move east, its influence wanes, thus allowing the atmosphere to support wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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