baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 This cross-polar flow junk makes this a somewhat low probability forecast even 84 hours out. Currently it does seem that there will be less interaction of the northern stream than previously projected--hence the recent north trends. Still dealing with a phase with the polar vortex through hour 24--could still go either way in terms of the exact position of the stretching deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You'll get 1.6 before end of April I'm sure of it, but I'll pass on 33 and rain here. I'll pass on 28 and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 0z Nam and GFS are warmer and north...and both had dropsonde data from the pacific if I'm not mistaking. Make of that what you will. The biggest variability lies with the northern stream PV and its interaction with the jet streak progged to phase with it at 24 hrs. Current GFS analysis over the northern hemisphere. The biggest variability lies with the northern stream--bot the Pacific trough ejecting into the plains. Models stink it up with these phase interactions with the PV and cross-polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 GGEM has all snow and ice for Detroit, with heavier snow with the second wave of precipitation show on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 prins you have any ggem text output? Looks like about 1.5-2.0" for much of the valley but i was wondering specific amounts. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 prins you have any ggem text output? Looks like about 1.5-2.0" for much of the valley but i was wondering specific amounts. Thanks in advance. 2.03" on the ggem for grand forks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 2.03" on the ggem for grand forks. alright since i'm clearly a bit slow where you getting the text output? I thought prins got that from his data feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 alright since i'm clearly a bit slow where you getting the text output? I thought prins got that from his data feed. her Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 alright since i'm clearly a bit slow where you getting the text output? I thought prins got that from his data feed. I get it from prins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 her whoops *her* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I get it from prins oh ok thanks for the gfk, do you happen to know kfar? I really f'ing need awips and nws data....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 oh ok thanks for the gfk, do you happen to know kfar? I really f'ing need awips and nws data....... 1.46" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 1.46" Thanks again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 your welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 whoops *her* I did the same thing as you before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I did the same thing as you before Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 00Z GGEM: P-TYPE: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Updated QPF: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm staying up for the Euro...if you want your city give me your code up until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm staying up for the Euro...if you want your city give me your code up until then. KDET lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 KDET lol denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm staying up for the Euro...if you want your city give me your code up until then. MSP, FAR, GFK for flood threats if you can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 97 and 09 might have a run for their money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 T850 up to 7.2 Wed morning here. Surface temps going up to 4.1C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 ugly ugly good or ugly bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 ugly good or ugly bad? Less northern stream interaction means N. Ugly bad for southern MI--ugly bad for ND as well for Cmich in terms of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 T850 up to 7.2 Wed morning here. Surface temps going up to 4.1C Boring, pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 DET all rain and pressure gets down to 996mb here which is quite low compared to any other model... MSP: TUE 06Z 22-MAR 4.5 4.9 1014 82 88 0.03 563 552 TUE 12Z 22-MAR 2.4 3.2 1011 95 86 0.37 561 552 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 2.4 2.8 1006 95 36 0.20 558 553 WED 00Z 23-MAR 2.1 5.8 1000 94 77 0.10 552 552 WED 06Z 23-MAR 0.7 -1.0 997 95 86 0.54 543 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.6 -3.4 998 91 31 0.09 537 538 WED 18Z 23-MAR -1.3 -7.8 1003 79 71 0.07 536 534 THU 00Z 24-MAR -4.4 -11.9 1012 76 90 0.05 540 530 FAR: TUE 12Z 22-MAR 1.2 1.7 1009 76 88 0.02 555 548 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 1.5 -1.1 1005 86 95 0.11 552 548 WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.3 -4.5 1003 89 98 0.27 547 544 WED 06Z 23-MAR -2.2 -7.5 1004 88 100 0.38 542 539 WED 12Z 23-MAR -3.6 -10.1 1006 88 92 0.38 538 533 WED 18Z 23-MAR -4.7 -12.7 1013 71 94 0.16 540 530 THU 00Z 24-MAR -4.6 -13.1 1019 62 14 0.02 544 529 THU 06Z 24-MAR -12.9 -13.1 1024 81 12 0.00 546 528 GFK: TUE 18Z 22-MAR 2.3 -1.6 1008 76 100 0.10 551 545 WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.3 -6.2 1007 87 100 0.44 547 542 WED 06Z 23-MAR -2.4 -7.7 1008 87 100 0.39 543 537 WED 12Z 23-MAR -4.6 -10.0 1011 83 99 0.35 541 532 WED 18Z 23-MAR -6.3 -9.5 1017 63 12 0.06 542 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Less northern stream interaction means N. Ugly bad. Thankfully this is the range where Euro sends out a crackpot solution or 2, this sounds like its by far the furthest north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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