snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 0.42 for YYZ You guys are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Hopefully this will trend south like Feb 20. Like the warmer temps but if its going to be cold it mine as well snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Hopefully this will trend south like Feb 20. Like the warmer temps but if its going to be cold it mine as well snow Don't know if it'll trend south, but I can almost guarantee you it won't trend any further north, given then downstream upper level pattern this storm will be encountering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 15z SREF p-type at 87 hours. Some of these have a bit of a north bias. There's no way mixing makes it all the way up to me. It's either snow or a whiff here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 DTX A CLASH BETWEEN WARM AND COLD AIR MASSES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THECENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE CWA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES WITH A WARM MID LEVEL BRINGING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES AS IT ENCOUNTERS THIS CLASH OF THE AIRMASSES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE WARM AIR PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE LIQUID...HOWEVER WITH A COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY FROZEN BUT WITH BOUTS OF SLEET WITH THE WARM LAYER PARTIALLY MELTING THE SNOW THEN REFREEZING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE COOL SURFACE LAYER. AREAS IN BETWEEN WILL SEE ALL OF THESE PRECIPITATION TYPES AT TIMES DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM LAYER AROUND 800MB. THIS SYSTEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 19, 2011 Author Share Posted March 19, 2011 GRR throwing in an analog (well not really) possibility...the Ice Storm of April, 2003 .LONG TERM...(415 PM EDT SAT MAR 19 2011)(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) CONCERN REMAINS FOR A MID WEEK STORM WHICH COULD BRING A VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES TO THE REGION. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON TUESDAY WITH OVER RUNNING PCPN TO IT/S NORTH INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STATIONARY INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT. AT THIS SAME TIME AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY...PUMPING COLD SHALLOW AIR INTO MICHIGAN. THE MAIN PLAYER IN THIS SETUP WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE AND HOW STRONG IT BECOMES...SUPPLYING BOTH THE COLD AIR AND POTENTIALLY DRY AIR. AS IT APPEARS NOW...THE HIGH WILL NOT SUPPLY ENOUGH DRY TO CUT OFF THE PCPN INTO MI. THIS COULD SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ICE STORM ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THIS STORM EVOLVES...BUT FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN MOSTLY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A MIX AT TIMES. FREEZING RAIN LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY PCPN TYPE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTH COULD SEE PERIODS OF PLAIN RAIN. ALL AREAS SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND BRINGS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. THIS STORM WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT WILL BE RUNNING INTO THE SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE APRIL 3-4 2003 STORM COMES TO MIND WHERE SOME AREAS SAW OVER AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE THAT POTENTIAL TOO...ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT WHERE THE WORST CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED. WATCH HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF TRENDS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GRR throwing in an analog (well not really) possibility...the Ice Storm of April, 2003 April 3-5, 2003 was an incredible sleet storm here. Even more incredible was the temp gradient. Near 80 in northern Ohio. Upper 20s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Pretty amazing how the models have basically done nearly the same thing with every system going back to January. Ofcourse it is not over with yet but still up to this point the models are behaving as they have since then. They slowly tick farther south and east and then have a run or two where they jump back north and then it is back to the other and in the end everything popping out of the rockies has ended up south of where the models had it but ofcourse some more so then others. Heck even the Groundhog blizz had a few runs that took the low to near/just west/nw of Chicago. I guess it is useful if you follow trends which works for me. It sucks though when you have people forgetting a day after the storm about the trends ( when the next system shows up ) though and thus the downside to that. How many systems have shown up on modeling and someone come along and day oh the models have been too far north with ejecting lows out of the rockies? yes many have been guilty of it. I think someone has already done it with this threat. That 2/20 was one. March 10/11th another. Anyways.. See what happens over the next few days. I am sure we will see more of the flip flops etc. Atleast we all have something to track which beats boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 GRR throwing in an analog (well not really) possibility...the Ice Storm of April, 2003 A inch of Ice? I'll take all rain over that. Thanks but no thanks. At this point i'll hope for the seasonal trend to kick into gear. If it still looks like ice then i'll wish for the warmer side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Pretty amazing how the models have basically done nearly the same thing with every system going back to January. Ofcourse it is not over with yet but still up to this point the models are behaving as they have since then. They slowly tick farther south and east and then have a run or two where they jump back north and then it is back to the other and in the end everything popping out of the rockies has ended up south of where the models had it but ofcourse some more so then others. Heck even the Groundhog blizz had a few runs that took the low to near/just west/nw of Chicago. I guess it is useful if you follow trends which works for me. It sucks though when you have people forgetting a day after the storm about the trends ( when the next system shows up ) though and thus the downside to that. How many systems have shown up on modeling and someone come along and day oh the models have been too far north with ejecting lows out of the rockies? yes many have been guilty of it. I think someone has already done it with this threat. That 2/20 was one. March 10/11th another. Anyways.. See what happens over the next few days. I am sure we will see more of the flip flops etc. Atleast we all have something to track which beats boring. One difference this time is climo. Storm track this time of year would tend to favour less suppression. That being said, the downstream pattern really isn't going to allow anything to cut. Like I said, the 12z suite consensus is probably as far north as this baby can come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 One difference this time is climo. Storm track this time of year would tend to favour less suppression. That being said, the downstream pattern really isn't going to allow anything to cut. Like I said, the 12z suite consensus is probably as far north as this baby can come. I admit it is a bit of a tougher call this go around. That being one reason. A bit will come down ( as seem to be the case with many systems this year ) to the front runner tomorrow night. Thus tomorrow nights 00z runs may have a much better clue. Plus the models are now starting to sh!t the bed with the MJO progression etc. In short the wave has completely fizzled after crossing back into the circle of death at the phase 2/3 line. Usually *not always* means we get left with that pattern ( Phase 2/3 ) for a longer period and or till it emerges back out of the circle. The models have not been to hot either with handling the AO/NAO etc. Basically we have another nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 what bothered me about DTX disc is that they worded it as if the track was set in stone, by mentioning snow in the Saginaw Valley, mix in the middle of the CWA, and freezing rain in the south. Very, very unwise imo. Yeah thats what the 12z runs would hint at. But what about the 6z showing snow? Should simply mention that anythings on the table attm. Harry a few pics from the Apr 4, 2003 ice storm that struck southern MI from Wunderground. Detroits northern burbs were paralyzed by ice while we south of Detroit just saw a scenic, mostly non-damaging draping of ice (due to hours of 33F rain). Then on April 7th we all shared in the 4-7" of snowfall, problem is many north of Detroit were still without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 While many areas were still powerless after the ice storm, a snowstorm hit 3 days later. The first pic was taken in Battle Creek found on wunderground, and the last 2 were taken by me in Wyandotte, of the 4-7-03 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 what bothered me about DTX disc is that they worded it as if the track was set in stone, by mentioning snow in the Saginaw Valley, mix in the middle of the CWA, and freezing rain in the south. Very, very unwise imo. Yeah thats what the 12z runs would hint at. But what about the 6z showing snow? Should simply mention that anythings on the table attm. Harry a few pics from the Apr 4, 2003 ice storm that struck southern MI from Wunderground. Detroits northern burbs were paralyzed by ice while we south of Detroit just saw a scenic, mostly non-damaging draping of ice (due to hours of 33F rain). Then on April 7th we all shared in the 4-7" of snowfall, problem is many north of Detroit were still without power. The crippling affects of Ice far outweigh its sheer awe and natural beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 The crippling affects of Ice far outweigh its sheer awe and natural beauty. Same can be said about severe weather... HPC Ice maps >.10 >.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 the NAM is warmer at the surface for sure, mostly rain over southern lower MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 what bothered me about DTX disc is that they worded it as if the track was set in stone, by mentioning snow in the Saginaw Valley, mix in the middle of the CWA, and freezing rain in the south. Very, very unwise imo. Yeah thats what the 12z runs would hint at. But what about the 6z showing snow? Should simply mention that anythings on the table attm. Harry a few pics from the Apr 4, 2003 ice storm that struck southern MI from Wunderground. Detroits northern burbs were paralyzed by ice while we south of Detroit just saw a scenic, mostly non-damaging draping of ice (due to hours of 33F rain). Then on April 7th we all shared in the 4-7" of snowfall, problem is many north of Detroit were still without power. Nice pics. Impressive to see that in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Helluvalot of precip coming ashore. Should be an interesting next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 The 03 ice storm was much worse North of the city. Also came with thunder for a large duration of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 North and warmer on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 North and warmer on the GFS Works for me. If it is not gonna snow here then it can keep goiing in this direction. As said i don't want that ice anywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You know briefly looking at the April 03 storm, it is not a bad analog fairly similar pattern at the time to what is forecasted currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 You know briefly looking at the April 03 storm, it is not a bad analog fairly similar pattern at the time to what is forecasted currently. April '03 was a massive south trender. On Monday (March 31) the GFS was progging the arctic boundary stalling out north of Lk Huron with temps approaching 70 here on Thursday (April 3). Within 72 hours it ended up being off by about 200 miles and I was at 29 with TSPL. I didn't follow the EURO back then, but it would have been interesting to see how it handled the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 April '03 was a massive south trender. On Monday (March 31) the GFS was progging the arctic boundary stalling out north of Lk Huron with temps approaching 70 here on Thursday (April 3). Within 72 hours it ended up being off by about 200 miles and I was at 29 with TSPL. I didn't follow the EURO back then, but it would have been interesting to see how it handled the situation. I could see this system being the same thing, especially with the storm to the east and the high pressing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 I'm prepared with dealing with all rain, to a full blown ice storm, to some snow, though snowstorm prospects look meager ATM. Riding the line=less work productivity neverthless.. I could see this system being the same thing, especially with the storm to the east and the high pressing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 20, 2011 Author Share Posted March 20, 2011 Quite the winter pattern with the -NAO on the GFS, interesting enough for something down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I could see this system being the same thing, especially with the storm to the east and the high pressing in. I thought you want your 40 bucks? Seriously though, a storm like April '03 proves that climatologically favored storm tracks are subordinate to anomalous upper level patterns. The one difference with this storm is that the models are hinting at some sort of partial phase with the PV, rather than keeping the PV completely separate and acting solely as a suppressing agent. This is why there's been a subtle northward creep the last 36 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 I thought you want your 40 bucks? Seriously though, a storm like April '03 proves that climatologically favored storm tracks are subordinate to anomalous upper level patterns. The one difference with this storm is that the models are hinting at some sort of partial phase with the PV, rather than keeping the PV completely separate and acting solely as a suppressing agent. This is why there's been a subtle northward creep the last 36 hours or so. You'll get 1.6 before end of April I'm sure of it, but I'll pass on 33 and rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 20, 2011 Share Posted March 20, 2011 0z Nam and GFS are warmer and north...and both had dropsonde data from the pacific if I'm not mistaking. Make of that what you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.