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March 21-24 Winter Storm

kab2791

By kab2791,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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cmichweather

cmichweather

Posted
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Thus i refer you back to early Oct 06 LES event. Again usually if temps are below say 31 snow has never had a hard time accumulating on all surfaces. Problem is it melts quicker usually unless it is April 82. :lol: That ofcourse had record cold to greatly help the cause. :P Still would be cool to see snowcover for so many days like that in April. :scooter:

No doubt i'm not saying this wont be a nice snow event just a bit less than model qpf might be realized. A 6 inch snowstorm this late in the season is gonna be pretty sweet for the region, I just don't think this overperforms, probably a nice 4-6 inch event with some 7's mixed in. I hope you guys all cash in but I'd temper model qpf just a bit this late in the season.

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Stebo

Stebo

Posted
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Ya lol wait until the nam is showing 1-2" qpf region wide then we can all go crazy and this thread goes part 4 thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Actually based upon how tight the baroclinic zone could be with this, I could see higher than currently forecasted precip amounts come out.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
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Also ugh.... Harry that 3/18 pattern if you could shift that southern low further east and dig a northern stream wave in....... epic. I forgot how nice that pattern almost was, it almost looks 93ish with the strong southern wave just need some northern stream hook up.

Don't get me started on the wasted potential. :facepalm:

IF the Pacific would behave we could have it or atleast much better odd's. Still time but it is running out. Ofcourse a bit more time out that way.

To get such systems ( atleast out this way ) usually you want a nice ridge in the Pacific ( so we can get help from up north diving out of Canada into the rockies/Plains ) with a bit of a active southern jet and a little ridging farther east.

Alot is there for it but ala have that crappy Pacific. That 93 storm btw had MJO phase 3, +QBO, +AO/+NAO as well. ugh..

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Harry

Harry

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lol, also another thing to worry about is the gfs has an elevated warm layer above 850 for the west side of the state in michigan between 850 and 700mb has an above 0c.

IF seasonal trends have any say in the matter i kinda like where i am sitting. Keep in mind of what the models tried to do with that system a little over a week ago. yeah the one the models took from CO to MN and instead whiffed here and gave Detroit 4-7 or so with a Track across TX to near Cleveland. Has been the case going back to January. So yeah i would not get too focused on rn/sn lines and even QPF just yet. Again this is IF the seasonal trends hold true to form.

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roardog

roardog

Posted
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This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted.

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Harry

Harry

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This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted.

Almost forgot about that one. Not nearly as much snow out this way ( 3-6 ) but still enough to cover the roads ( even i94 ) and make them real sh!tty the following morning. Ugh i hated the drive home from work that morning after as yeah i94 was a mess with alot of ice and crap still on it. :thumbsdown:

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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This has nothing to do with cmichweather's comments on next week but everytime someone brings up warm ground and sun angle I think back to the late April 2005 snowstorm. It was 80 degrees prior to the storm. The storm began during the day with what is equal to a mid August sun angle and the snow still stuck to the roads with temps generally about 33F the whole time. I thought there would be no way the snow would stick during the day. Boy was I wrong. lol Of course I think the snow melted as it fell but accumulated at a faster rate than it melted.

Agree. And this is not to cmich's comments either, just a general statement. When I hear the usually unending comments about sun angle/warm ground comments this time of year I get annoyed. I actually am quite pleased as this year is not nearly as bad as years past on the boards wrt some people literally thinking snow cant stick in the daytime after March 1st. What usuallly happens is that every snowfall that hits anywhere has the debbie downers saying it will have a hard time sticking, then after the storm they are all surprised. March 5/6, the ground was grossly saturated from heavy rain and tons of snowmelt, to the tune of standing water on peoples grass. Yet, rain switched to snow late afternoon and began sticking IMMEDIATELY, getting nearly 5". The same thing happened less than a week later. Im not saying its mid-winter, not denying you get more sticking on the cement during nighttime spring snows, and not denying how fast spring snow can melt...just laying out the facts of a little pet peeve of mine that I see get proven time and time again year in and year out.

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Ajdos

Ajdos

Posted
Posted

Agree. And this is not to cmich's comments either, just a general statement. When I hear the usually unending comments about sun angle/warm ground comments this time of year I get annoyed. I actually am quite pleased as this year is not nearly as bad as years past on the boards wrt some people literally thinking snow cant stick in the daytime after March 1st. What usuallly happens is that every snowfall that hits anywhere has the debbie downers saying it will have a hard time sticking, then after the storm they are all surprised. March 5/6, the ground was grossly saturated from heavy rain and tons of snowmelt, to the tune of standing water on peoples grass. Yet, rain switched to snow late afternoon and began sticking IMMEDIATELY, getting nearly 5". The same thing happened less than a week later. Im not saying its mid-winter, not denying you get more sticking on the cement during nighttime spring snows, and not denying how fast spring snow can melt...just laying out the facts of a little pet peeve of mine that I see get proven time and time again year in and year out.

Of course it can stick, but it has to be heavy and steady to cool the ground.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

It feels like forecasting 2/20 all over again with regards to being on the line, wondering how much ice/snow/rain will fall.

I was JUST thinking that. Lets hope we see a repeat of 2/20 lol :) 12z GFS is an ice storm, UGH....but at 4 days out and the models changing every run, its worthless to worry about the details yet.

And regarding snow sticking. Rates are huge for making the most out of the liquid equivalent, but again...they are NOT the end-all for accumulating snow in spring, not in the least. Nor are warm temps prior to the storm. I mean, yes, say you get a 30F day with 3-5 mile visib snow all day in mid-December and then the exact conditions again in early April. You will probably see 0.2-0.4" type of accumulations on that December day versus a trace on the April day. But do you need 0.25 mile visibility for snow to stick in the daylight hours this time of year? Absolutely not.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
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12Z Euro...warmer and north

DET:

WED 06Z 23-MAR  -0.1    -1.4    1015      77      96    0.09     559     547    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.8     1.0    1009      88      99    0.16     554     548    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.0     2.4    1001      89      73    0.17     547     546    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.7    -2.2    1001      87      56    0.11     541     540    
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -3.8    -8.6    1005      85      78    0.06     537     533

DTW:

TUE 18Z 22-MAR   1.7     0.2    1021      76      89    0.05     563     546    
WED 00Z 23-MAR   1.1     0.1    1018      76      94    0.06     563     548    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -0.1    -0.6    1014      80      84    0.10     559     548    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.4     2.0    1008      90      91    0.14     555     549    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -0.5     3.9    1000      90      74    0.17     546     546    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.3    -1.3    1001      88      39    0.09     541     540    
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -3.7    -8.5    1005      86      74    0.05     537     533

PTK:

WED 00Z 23-MAR   0.8    -0.7    1019      63      96    0.08     562     547    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -0.3    -2.0    1015      73      92    0.13     558     547    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -2.1     0.0    1009      87      90    0.19     554     547    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.4     0.7    1002      87      79    0.15     546     544    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -3.3    -3.8    1002      86      64    0.07     541     539

MSP:

TUE 12Z 22-MAR   0.7     2.8    1014      95      96    0.42     561     550    
TUE 18Z 22-MAR   1.9     1.8    1010      90      74    0.24     559     551    
WED 00Z 23-MAR   1.2     2.9    1005      91      83    0.08     554     550    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -1.2    -2.5    1003      92      99    0.41     547     545    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -3.6    -8.3    1003      88      91    0.72     540     538    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -4.2   -11.0    1008      77      88    0.26     539     533    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -4.9   -12.5    1015      81      91    0.05     542     530

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