cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Looks like a pretty good hit for S-Mi. Anyone have qpf for DTW? DET? looks like a solid 6-10 there, about .64 frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 only concern i have for michigan is that the ground temps have to be creeping up and temps the day b4 are going to be mid 40's at least and the recent warmth might cut about 2-4 inches off the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 MPX Prins? I am not at work so I can't see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 only concern i have for michigan is that the ground temps have to be creeping up and temps the day b4 are going to be mid 40's at least and the recent warmth might cut about 2-4 inches off the totals. whats FAR looking like... 15 - 18"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 only concern i have for michigan is that the ground temps have to be creeping up and temps the day b4 are going to be mid 40's at least and the recent warmth might cut about 2-4 inches off the totals. Depends on rates. Cutting out 2-4 if the early snow is heavy would be a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 MPX Prins? I am not at work so I can't see. 2.06 TUE 06Z 22-MAR 3.6 3.0 1020 80 52 0.01 564 548 TUE 12Z 22-MAR 0.8 1.2 1018 91 82 0.19 562 548 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 0.9 0.5 1014 91 93 0.31 560 549 WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.6 -1.6 1009 88 73 0.18 555 548 WED 06Z 23-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1007 90 99 0.30 548 542 WED 12Z 23-MAR -4.3 -8.9 1009 87 89 0.68 541 534 WED 18Z 23-MAR -4.8 -11.9 1014 75 92 0.34 539 528 THU 00Z 24-MAR -4.2 -12.4 1019 74 91 0.05 543 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 ya but the surface temps are marginal as well... EDIT: nvm I was looking at FAR stuff I thought the first 12 hours were above 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 DTW WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.2 -1.2 1020 70 79 0.02 561 546 WED 06Z 23-MAR -1.4 -3.2 1016 77 98 0.20 558 546 WED 12Z 23-MAR -2.9 -2.0 1011 88 91 0.29 553 545 WED 18Z 23-MAR -1.8 -2.0 1006 86 66 0.09 547 541 THU 00Z 24-MAR -2.5 -5.0 1008 85 26 0.03 542 535 THU 06Z 24-MAR -3.5 -9.3 1009 86 89 0.01 537 529 THU 12Z 24-MAR -6.5 -11.0 1014 84 70 0.01 537 527 DET WED 06Z 23-MAR -1.6 -3.3 1017 72 97 0.16 558 545 WED 12Z 23-MAR -3.2 -2.9 1011 85 99 0.31 553 544 WED 18Z 23-MAR -2.0 -3.2 1007 84 80 0.10 546 541 THU 00Z 24-MAR -2.6 -5.6 1008 85 26 0.04 541 535 THU 06Z 24-MAR -3.4 -9.3 1009 86 87 0.01 536 529 THU 12Z 24-MAR -6.1 -11.2 1013 84 61 0.01 537 526 Thank you. This is going to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 TUE 06Z 22-MAR 3.6 3.0 1020 80 52 0.01 564 548 TUE 12Z 22-MAR 0.8 1.2 1018 91 82 0.19 562 548 TUE 18Z 22-MAR 0.9 0.5 1014 91 93 0.31 560 549 WED 00Z 23-MAR 0.6 -1.6 1009 88 73 0.18 555 548 WED 06Z 23-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1007 90 99 0.30 548 542 WED 12Z 23-MAR -4.3 -8.9 1009 87 89 0.68 541 534 WED 18Z 23-MAR -4.8 -11.9 1014 75 92 0.34 539 528 THU 00Z 24-MAR -4.2 -12.4 1019 74 91 0.05 543 528 My gosh. 2" qpf would be awful for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 My gosh. 2" qpf would be awful for flooding. ya this could be a worst case scenario, 168 hour euro is looking ugly as well for the next storm could be back to back storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 only concern i have for michigan is that the ground temps have to be creeping up and temps the day b4 are going to be mid 40's at least and the recent warmth might cut about 2-4 inches off the totals. Do what? FYI.. Temps right before the March 21/22 08 event had been in the mid 40s the day before and up into the 40s and 50s for a little over a week prior to that. Had been no snow cover on the ground going back to March 2nd either. That winter kinda stunk in that dept anyways with all the thaws etc. Anyways.. As mentioned when that snow started it had no problem with sticking and it started just before noon with alot of it falling that afternoon. Snow total was 13 and total qpf was .65 *EDIT* Let me add as well that usually what you suggests happens when temps are at 31/32 or so during the daylight hours unless it comes down hard ofcourse. Heck back in Oct 06 when we had that early Oct les event the snow started sticking to the sidewalk/street once the temp dropped to 30. Ofcourse though it melted quickly the moment daylight hit the following day except in the shaddy spots. Had been in the 60s/70s just prior to this event and ofcourse summer had just ended. Was peaking at 2m temps.. Wow.. 30 at the stateline and 60+ down by ChicagoWx/Hoosier and 70 making a run for just wsw of Indy/i70 at 18z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Worth mentioning--this storm is going to be putting MPX into top 5 territory--potentially top 3 if the higher snow totals verify out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 ya this could be a worst case scenario, 168 hour euro is looking ugly as well for the next storm could be back to back storms. Yeah it is looking grim for flood prone areas with the pattern setting up. 1997 was similar with a barrage of storms in early spring before the record breaking floods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Worth mentioning--this storm is going to be putting MPX into top 5 territory--potentially top 3 if the higher snow totals verify out. If Detroit can eek out 6.6" it too would be in top 3, all we need is to surpass 74.0" currently at 67.5, 5th place is easily within reach at 69.1" with us only needing 1.7" to surpass that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 only concern i have for michigan is that the ground temps have to be creeping up and temps the day b4 are going to be mid 40's at least and the recent warmth might cut about 2-4 inches off the totals. Just a reference for you, obviously this doesn't take into effect the 2 days of 60s we just had and Mondays 60s, but even with those I'd be hard pressed to believe that the temps beyond 4" are above freezing Latest Soil Temperatures LOCATION DATE TIME 2 INCH 4 INCH 8 INCH 20 INCH 40 INCH Cass City Mar14 8:00 26 28 28 28 32 Tipton Mar14 8:00 27 28 28 29 34 White Lake Mar14 8:00 30 30 29 31 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Do what? FYI.. Temps right before the March 21/22 08 event had been in the mid 40s the day before and up into the 40s and 50s for a little over a week prior to that. Had been no snow cover on the ground going back to March 2nd either. That winter kinda stunk in that dept anyways with all the thaws etc. Anyways.. As mentioned when that snow started it had no problem with sticking and it started just before noon with alot of it falling that afternoon. Snow total was 13 and total qpf was .65 Was peaking at 2m temps.. Wow.. 30 at the stateline and 60+ down by ChicagoWx/Hoosier and 70 making a run for just wsw of Indy/i70 at 18z Wed. I'm just saying that the 70's today along with the 60's on monday are going to warm the ground temps up just a bit, that at sun angle are going to cut snow accumulation at the start. This isn't an a very cold storm diving in, the snow will pile up but you have to cut some of the snow totals off just because of the recent warmth. This isn't a very cold storm with the coldest temps around 25 F and the snow falling during the day. You guys are gonna get dumped on but some of the qpf has to be cut out, even up here we were at 28F and we had a ton of melting during the day. Didn't most of the 21/22nd storm fall overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If Detroit can eek out 6.6" it too would be in top 3, all we need is to surpass 74.0" currently at 67.5, 5th place is easily within reach at 69.1" with us only needing 1.7" to surpass that. It has been an amazing winter--I didn't realize DTW has done that well though! That is only 13" less than MPX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Just a reference for you, obviously this doesn't take into effect the 2 days of 60s we just had and Mondays 60s, but even with those I'd be hard pressed to believe that the temps beyond 4" are above freezing Latest Soil Temperatures LOCATION DATE TIME 2 INCH 4 INCH 8 INCH 20 INCH 40 INCH 60 INCH Cass City Mar 14 8:00 26 28 28 28 32 0 Tipton Mar 14 8:00 27 28 28 29 34 0 White Lake Mar 14 8:00 30 30 29 31 33 35 Per 2m temps it is below freezing for the whole event. Here they start out in the 30s but drop to and below freezing at 00z wed when the main batch of precip arrives. Could be some freezing rain in there i suppose as well which seems to be common with these spring events with a nice push of cold draining in from the ene/ne in Canada. Most of what falls ( per euro ) is overnight into the morning hrs as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It has been an amazing winter--I didn't realize DTW has done that well though! That is only 13" less than MPX. Yeah we have been in the Jackpot zone since Feb 1st pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Per 2m temps it is below freezing for the whole event. Here they start out in the 30s but drop to and below freezing at 00z wed when the main batch of precip arrives. Could be some freezing rain in there i suppose as well which seems to be common with these spring events with a nice push of cold draining in from the ene/ne in Canada. Most of what falls ( per euro ) is overnight into the morning hrs as well. This is a big key to this event, we are at the point where nighttime will help out a bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Per 2m temps it is below freezing for the whole event. Here they start out in the 30s but drop to and below freezing at 00z wed when the main batch of precip arrives. Could be some freezing rain in there i suppose as well which seems to be common with these spring events with a nice push of cold draining in from the ene/ne in Canada. Most of what falls ( per euro ) is overnight into the morning hrs as well. You're right out your way most of this is overnight which will help, dtx gets a bit more into the morning and early afternoon so you guys on the west side might end up with a bit more than the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 I'm just saying that the 70's today along with the 60's on monday are going to warm the ground temps up just a bit, that at sun angle are going to cut snow accumulation at the start. This isn't an a very cold storm diving in, the snow will pile up but you have to cut some of the snow totals off just because of the recent warmth. This isn't a very cold storm with the coldest temps around 25 F and the snow falling during the day. You guys are gonna get dumped on but some of the qpf has to be cut out, even up here we were at 28F and we had a ton of melting during the day. Didn't most of the 21/22nd storm fall overnight? See my edit. Thus no. Most of it fell in the afternoon into the evening hrs. And temps were in that 26-30 range as well. That was a cool storm. As mentioned it had a similar set up to this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You're right out your way most of this is overnight which will help, dtx gets a bit more into the morning and early afternoon so you guys on the west side might end up with a bit more than the east side. If it starts here before sunrise, then its a snow falling on snow situation, and if precip rates are high then that will negate the time of day factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 See my edit. Thus no. Most of it fell in the afternoon into the evening hrs. And temps were in that 26-30 range as well. That was a cool storm. As mentioned it had a similar set up to this one as well. You also were much cooler before that storm, the pattern was about 10-20 degree cooler during that so it wasn't nearly as warm as this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 If it starts here before sunrise, then its a snow falling on snow situation, and if precip rates are high then that will negate the time of day factor. ya that'll be a big factor is the precip rates, i'm not trying to poo poo the snow chances you guys can certainly do well but to extrap. the qpf to pure snow at the end of the event might be a bit of a stretch. Even in Fargo I think we lose a few tenths because it'll be falling during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 ya that'll be a big factor is the precip rates, i'm not trying to poo poo the snow chances you guys can certainly do well but to extrap. the qpf to pure snow at the end of the event might be a bit of a stretch. Even in Fargo I think we lose a few tenths because it'll be falling during the day. Sun might be a factor yes, but I think you might be overvaluing it a touch too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Also ugh.... Harry that 3/18 pattern if you could shift that southern low further east and dig a northern stream wave in....... epic. I forgot how nice that pattern almost was, it almost looks 93ish with the strong southern wave just need some northern stream hook up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 Sun might be a factor yes, but I think you might be overvaluing it a touch too No i know i'm being a debbie downer but watching the snow melt even up here during a sub freezing day lets you know that the sun is getting mighty strong, Even a few weeks ago the detroit posters were talking about how most of the snow was melting in areas without shade, it's not like all the snow will melt but some of it will be lost due to the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 You also were much cooler before that storm, the pattern was about 10-20 degree cooler during that so it wasn't nearly as warm as this week. Thus i refer you back to early Oct 06 LES event. Again usually if temps are below say 31 snow has never had a hard time accumulating on all surfaces. Problem is it melts quicker usually unless it is April 82. That ofcourse had record cold to greatly help the cause. Still would be cool to see snowcover for so many days like that in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 19, 2011 Share Posted March 19, 2011 It's not like you guys aren't gonna get snow i'd say a good 4-6 is gonna be common with possibly a touch more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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