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March 21-24 Winter Storm

kab2791

By kab2791,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

U can really see the high to the north doing work by looking at the precip in northern MN and WI hitting the wall and getting shunted south.

From a purely imby perspective, I'm liking how far north these radar returns across the plains/UMW are showing up.

lol at the contradictory posts.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

lol at the contradictory posts.

I don't think Stevo's post and mine are contradictory. He's right that the arctic ridge is shearing the northern edge of the pcpn shield a part. However, the overall location of the pcpn shield is further north than the 0z models progged. NAM/RGEM had the bullseye of QPF across SE MN/SW WI/NE IA. Based on radar so far, the most pcpn has falling from s-central MN through central WI, with IA almost completely unscathed.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Congrats. ;)

Clown map aside, what are you expecting up there from this storm?

CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif

I think 3-6" looks good. Best swath of heaviest snow (like 6-9") probably misses me to the SW, bu it'll be close.

Part of me was ready for spring, but I'll take it. Looks like you're getting a couple of chances to crack 50" (and more) over the next week as well. :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

I think 3-6" looks good. Best swath of heaviest snow (like 6-9") probably misses me to the SW, bu it'll be close.

Part of me was ready for spring, but I'll take it. Looks like you're getting a couple of chances to crack 50" (and more) over the next week as well. :)

Nice. Good luck. Normally I'd think you're really golden with the best currently modeled to be to your SW, but we know how that's worked out...

And yes, a couple of last gasps look to be on the horizon for here. Not that anything is ever a lock, but I'm liking our chances at getting to 50". Getting greedy, but I'll throw in a 5% chance at 60"...if everything breaks perfectly. :lmao:

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

Nice. Good luck. Normally I'd think you're really golden with the best currently modeled to be to your SW, but we know how that's worked out...

And yes, a couple of last gasps look to be on the horizon for here. Not that anything is ever a lock, but I'm liking our chances at getting to 50". Getting greedy, but I'll throw in a 5% chance at 60"...if everything breaks perfectly. :lmao:

Even a small chance to break into the top 3 all time winters and without the aid of a massive snowstorm is very impressive. Epecially for LAF where frequency of snowfall usually leaves a lot to be desired I guess.

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Torontonian

Torontonian

Posted
Posted

I think 3-6" looks good. Best swath of heaviest snow (like 6-9") probably misses me to the SW, bu it'll be close.

Thought we were done with the winter :lol:

EC and TWN are saying about 2-3 inches, you are going way more.

Even thinking 6-9" close by, that would be one of our biggest snowfalls this winter.

Just have to see how this tracks. We have had a lot of near misses.:o

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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Thought we were done with the winter :lol:

EC and TWN are saying about 2-3 inches, you are going way more.

Even thinking 6-9" close by, that would be one of our biggest snowfalls this winter.

Just have to see how this tracks. We have had a lot of near misses.:o

SREF/NAM/GFS/RGEM consensus QPF is around 1/2 an inch, with half decent ratios, so I think my 3-6" call is pretty conservative (although I do that because the models have an penchant for overdoing QPF in scenarios where there's a lot of dry air to be overcome). That being said, looks like the 12z EURO came south. Only have the freebies, but it looks like a fringe job. Nowcasting time though. From what I see upstream, I think we're ok attm.

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kab2791

kab2791

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MPX made some major changes to the forecast...the morning forecast called for rain changing to snow tonight with less than an 1"...now my area is under a winter storm warning with 6 - 10":thumbsup:

Those are the best kind of things to experience with winter storms.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

And to corroborate my assessment, here's a snippet from DTX's early afternoon update

UPDATE...

AN UPDATED WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE HAS BEEN ISSUED RECENTLY TO

REFLECT THE LATEST FORECAST DECISIONS.

.12Z NAM/GEM SUPPORT A FAIR NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE MOISTURE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS THIS MORNING AND 22PROFILES AND AXIS OF

MAXIMUM QPF WITH REGARDS TO THE WINTER STORM THAT IS SET TO IMPACT

SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS IS A SEPARATE

ISSUE ENTIRELY TO THE EARLIER SOUTHWARD INCLUSION OF THE COOLER

PTYPES. THE MOST PRESSING UNKNOWN THAT HAS COME TO THE FOREFRONT

IS WHAT IMPACT A VERY STRONG MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT WILL HAVE ON THE

SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. THIS STRONG DRY AIR

PUNCH IS BECOMING VERY PROMINENT IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF WV

IMAGERY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO. THIS IS EXPECTED

TO PUNCH POLEWARD IN A MORE NORTH/SOUTH FASHION...FORESHADOWED BY

WHAT HAS ALREADY TRANSPIRED WITH THE MEASURABLE

PRECIPITATION/DEEPER SATURATION DEFORMATION AXIS THAT IS IN PLACE

ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE LATEST BELIEF IS THE DRY SLOT WILL LIFT

THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT

WHICH SHOULD REDUCE PRECIPITATION RATES IN TIME FOR THE MORNING

COMMUTE. NOTE WHILE LESS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED...FORECASTED PTYPE HAS IN MOST INSTANCES REMAINED

UNCHANGED.

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kab2791

kab2791

Posted
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12Z Euro

DET (Hey hey)

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.4	-0.7	1012  	90  	99	0.23 	559 	549	
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.4 	1.0	1007  	91  	94	0.21 	554 	548	
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -0.7 	1.1	1002  	85  	94	0.14 	546 	545	
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.3	-4.8	1004  	84  	57	0.17 	540 	536	
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -2.9	-9.1	1008  	79  	93	0.09 	537 	531

PTK:

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.0	-1.1	1012  	91  	96	0.27 	558 	549	
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.9 	0.1	1007  	91  	97	0.24 	553 	547	
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.5	-0.4	1003  	84  	94	0.19 	545 	543	
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -3.1	-6.1	1006  	86  	75	0.22 	540 	535	
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -3.9	-9.5	1009  	76  	94	0.12 	538 	531

YYZ:

WED 00Z 23-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1019      63      47    0.00 	555 	540    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -3.8    -6.4    1017      58      44    0.03 	553 	539    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -5.6    -5.5    1014      67      88    0.14 	549 	538    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.3    -6.7    1007      52 	100    0.05 	546 	540    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.7    -8.8    1006      66 	100    0.14 	540 	535 
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -4.4   -10.1    1006      68      54    0.05 	534 	529

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Torontonian

Torontonian

Posted
Posted

SREF/NAM/GFS/RGEM consensus QPF is around 1/2 an inch, with half decent ratios, so I think my 3-6" call is pretty conservative (although I do that because the models have an penchant for overdoing QPF in scenarios where there's a lot of dry air to be overcome). That being said, looks like the 12z EURO came south. Only have the freebies, but it looks like a fringe job. Nowcasting time though. From what I see upstream, I think we're ok attm.

The models have failed miserably in our backyard for synoptic snows. Everything trended a little SW of what was modelled.

Nonetheless this system has caught my attention. I will follow this in a Nowcasting way :scooter:

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro

DET (Hey hey)

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.4    -0.7    1012      90      99    0.23     559     549    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.4     1.0    1007      91      94    0.21     554     548    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -0.7     1.1    1002      85      94    0.14     546     545    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.3    -4.8    1004      84      57    0.17     540     536    
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -2.9    -9.1    1008      79      93    0.09     537     531

PTK:

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.0    -1.1    1012      91      96    0.27     558     549    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.9     0.1    1007      91      97    0.24     553     547    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.5    -0.4    1003      84      94    0.19     545     543    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -3.1    -6.1    1006      86      75    0.22     540     535    
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -3.9    -9.5    1009      76      94    0.12     538     531

YYZ:

WED 00Z 23-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1019      63      47    0.00     555     540    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -3.8    -6.4    1017      58      44    0.03     553     539    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -5.6    -5.5    1014      67      88    0.14     549     538    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.3    -6.7    1007      52     100    0.05     546     540    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.7    -8.8    1006      66     100    0.14     540     535 
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -4.4   -10.1    1006      68      54    0.05     534     529

Thanks for the text output Kab. That's not half bad. Only a smidge drier here than the N American model consensus.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

Posted
Posted

12Z Euro

DET (Hey hey)

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.4	-0.7	1012  	90  	99	0.23 	559 	549	
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.4 	1.0	1007  	91  	94	0.21 	554 	548	
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -0.7 	1.1	1002  	85  	94	0.14 	546 	545	
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.3	-4.8	1004  	84  	57	0.17 	540 	536	
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -2.9	-9.1	1008  	79  	93	0.09 	537 	531

PTK:

WED 06Z 23-MAR   0.0	-1.1	1012  	91  	96	0.27 	558 	549	
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -1.9 	0.1	1007  	91  	97	0.24 	553 	547	
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.5	-0.4	1003  	84  	94	0.19 	545 	543	
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -3.1	-6.1	1006  	86  	75	0.22 	540 	535	
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -3.9	-9.5	1009  	76  	94	0.12 	538 	531

YYZ:

WED 00Z 23-MAR   1.2    -5.2    1019      63      47    0.00 	555 	540    
WED 06Z 23-MAR  -3.8    -6.4    1017      58      44    0.03 	553 	539    
WED 12Z 23-MAR  -5.6    -5.5    1014      67      88    0.14 	549 	538    
WED 18Z 23-MAR  -1.3    -6.7    1007      52 	100    0.05 	546 	540    
THU 00Z 24-MAR  -2.7    -8.8    1006      66 	100    0.14 	540 	535 
THU 06Z 24-MAR  -4.4   -10.1    1006      68      54    0.05 	534 	529

Pontiac looking decent.

Curious to see Saginaw. Thanks.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

The models have failed miserably in our backyard for synoptic snows. Everything trended a little SW of what was modelled.

Nonetheless this system has caught my attention. I will follow this in a Nowcasting way :scooter:

They have. But the theme this winter was for the models to trend away from a decent hit around 36-48 hours out. Now we're within 24 hours, and things look pretty good for a moderate snowfall. I doubt we get screwed with this one to the degree we did so frequently in Feb.

Get out the shovel (or blower) and enjoy. :)

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

Posted
Posted

Even a small chance to break into the top 3 all time winters and without the aid of a massive snowstorm is very impressive. Epecially for LAF where frequency of snowfall usually leaves a lot to be desired I guess.

True true. Shades of the 1981-82 winter here (7" in April to put it over the top) if things break right.

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