kab2791 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 Why? I'm guessing because he lives in YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I'm guessing because he lives in YYZ The runs of any model that shows a hit here usually are the ones with the errors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Hmm, 00z NAM BUFKIT shows 0.44" of ice followed by 3-5" of snow for Detroit (City Airport). At Metro it's 0.56" of ice and only a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 So GFS Vs Nam again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 So GFS Vs Nam again.... Not really, both have trended in right direction and are actually fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Not really, both have trended in right direction and are actually fairly similar. They are? Hm.. I think GFS is a lot warmer compared to the nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 They are? Hm.. I think GFS is a lot warmer compared to the nam.. maybe at 850mb, all that says is higher ice potential vs the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Muskegon County now included in the Winter Storm Watch...Hoping for an even further south track so we get more sleet/snow than freezing rain. But I don't want to wish freezing rain on anybody! Nasty stuff These trends tonight continue and GRR may need to have a watch for the whole area. They are? Hm.. I think GFS is a lot warmer compared to the nam.. Look at the surface/2m temps and not 850s/thickness. GFS at the very least looks to be a ice storm there and almost and perhaps maybe even here. Very close here but wanna be sure first before stating whether it is or not. Still it is colder at the surface vs previous runs. I think i need to start rooting for the Ice storm. Usually what i root for goes the another way atleast this winter it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This thread should be on fire, why so dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This thread should be on fire, why so dead? winter burnout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 This thread should be on fire, why so dead? It isn't a major snow threat to the big population centers here--and winter burnout as Hoosier mentioned. Personally I am excited for any big weather event (even if I will have no part of it), but I have been busy with other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 It isn't a major snow threat to the big population centers here--and winter burnout as Hoosier mentioned. Personally I am excited for any big weather event (even if I will have no part of it), but I have been busy with other stuff. lol ya i'm super pumped but not many posters up here but Dan got in on the action. Its gonna get nuts here in about 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 lol ya i'm super pumped but not many posters up here but Dan got in on the action. Its gonna get nuts here in about 18 hours. Enjoy your storm--this should quite easily be the biggest of the winter up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 BTW in class today Leon said 4-6" and I said 14" ..... I think he hugged the gfs a bit 2 hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 nice line of tstorms breaking out in e SD...looks like some 60 DBZ in that around Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 I've never experienced a major ice storm (0.5"+) yet in my 20yrs...will be something if it pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 nice line of tstorms breaking out in e SD...looks like some 60 DBZ in that around Huron Ya i was talking to someone on facebook about them, they are extremely elevated but they could have some hail, some of the surface obs are even close to freezing so elevated surfaces might get some small hail, rain and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Ya i was talking to someone on facebook about them, they are extremely elevated but they could have some hail, some of the surface obs are even close to freezing so elevated surfaces might get some small hail, rain and freezing rain i see FSD issued tstorm warning somewhere around that area. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1150 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN KINGSBURY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL 1215 AM CDT * AT 1151 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE THOMPSON STATE RECREATION AREA...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF MADISON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKE PRESTON AROUND MIDNIGHT CDT... BADGER AROUND 1215 AM CDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 HIRESW looking nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 HIRESW looking nice For some weird reason, I feel it will be mostly liquid at DTW. Hope Im wrong. Really wrong. My hope is there though, as look what happened here Feb 20th, and it certainly has been the trend this winter to get snow no matter what at DTW lol (most winters, even the excellent ones, the 48-hour models give us twice the snow we actually receive, this year weve had more snow than the 48-hour model runs print out.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 ugh wtf ecmwf non hydrostatic ftl, shafting gfk only about 6 inches from the recent run keeps qpf south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 euro looks like it may have come south ehhhhh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I've never experienced a major ice storm (0.5"+) yet in my 20yrs...will be something if it pans out Hmm...what about Jan 31, 2002? We had a ton of ice (certainly 0.5"+) on top of heavy snow. Other candidates would be Jan 2007, April 2003, March 1997...again though, these are very rare in SE MI anymore. We usually get primarily snow or rain or sometimes a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Euro ;/ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 qpf anyone? EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I guess nowcasting is the only solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 qpf anyone? EURO i forgot where your located but here's DET qpf TUE 18Z 22-MAR 3.0 0.4 1019 75 83 0.08 563 547 WED 00Z 23-MAR 1.6 -0.3 1017 78 98 0.10 562 548 WED 06Z 23-MAR 0.6 -0.6 1012 89 92 0.14 559 549 WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.4 1.5 1006 91 93 0.22 553 549 WED 18Z 23-MAR 0.5 2.6 1001 88 72 0.18 545 545 THU 00Z 24-MAR -1.4 -3.2 1004 86 36 0.05 540 537 THU 06Z 24-MAR -2.6 -8.8 1008 82 83 0.03 538 532 THU 12Z 24-MAR -5.9 -9.1 1014 79 20 0.01 541 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 i forgot where your located but here's DET qpf TUE 18Z 22-MAR 3.0 0.4 1019 75 83 0.08 563 547 WED 00Z 23-MAR 1.6 -0.3 1017 78 98 0.10 562 548 WED 06Z 23-MAR 0.6 -0.6 1012 89 92 0.14 559 549 WED 12Z 23-MAR -0.4 1.5 1006 91 93 0.22 553 549 WED 18Z 23-MAR 0.5 2.6 1001 88 72 0.18 545 545 THU 00Z 24-MAR -1.4 -3.2 1004 86 36 0.05 540 537 THU 06Z 24-MAR -2.6 -8.8 1008 82 83 0.03 538 532 THU 12Z 24-MAR -5.9 -9.1 1014 79 20 0.01 541 530 Thank you sir.. I'm 20 miles north of Det.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 thunder/lightning here right now with moderate rain...temp 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 00z GFS BUFKIT has 1.17" of ZR for PTK http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kptk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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