mnweather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Blizzard Watches in MN. I take it that this forum lacks members from that region. Still looks like the Feb 20th system. Although it appears that parts of SEMI that missed the MIX / ICE from that storm will get it with this one. Im probably the only one on this board with a blizzard watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Somehow nam has managed to up the qpf again for gfk. Now if we could only lock in this solution for the next 2 days............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Models were way too far north with this current storm. Hopefully same will be said for the next one. Was napping and the thunder and pouring rain woke me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 GFS very warm,.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Seeing as models are whiffing hard on the thunderstorms and below 40 degree temps here right now, I am going to take the models for what they are worth right now, which isn't much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Seeing as models are whiffing hard on the thunderstorms and below 40 degree temps here right now, I am going to take the models for what they are worth right now, which isn't much of anything. Problem is the system at the border. Needed the low farther south by Chicago to become the dominate one and strengthen. That would have helped to bring down a better supply of cold etc from Canada. What models kinda **** the bed with was the front near the stateline and thus a bit colder and farther south with the precip/T-Storms. I think the potential for any meaningful wintry precip is about shot in lower MI. For here i am about certain it is ( except maybe some flakes on backside ) and I would be willing to bet on that too. I guess the flip side is we may have a better severe potential. Thus it is time to root for this thing to go/stay farther north and stronger. Want snow in S.MI. then hope it bombs in N.ND and or near the US/Canada border and closes off and meanders into S.Canada. That would set up a nice blocker for the following system which would be forced to take a more southern track. JMHO No guarantee but it would help the odds alot especially with the crappy Pacific which may screw things up anyways unless we can get some ridging out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Problem is the system at the border. Needed the low farther south by Chicago to become the dominate one and strengthen. That would have helped to bring down a better supply of cold etc from Canada. What models kinda **** the bed with was the front near the stateline and thus a bit colder and farther south with the precip/T-Storms. I think the potential for any meaningful wintry precip is about shot in lower MI. For here i am about certain it is ( except maybe some flakes on backside ) and I would be willing to bet on that too. I guess the flip side is we may have a better severe potential. Thus it is time to root for this thing to go/stay farther north and stronger. Want snow in S.MI. then hope it bombs in N.ND and or near the US/Canada border and closes off and meanders into S.Canada. That would set up a nice blocker for the following system which would be forced to take a more southern track. JMHO No guarantee but it would help the odds alot especially with the crappy Pacific which may screw things up anyways unless we can get some ridging out there. Yeah maybe I should root on severe then we know it will trend back colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah maybe I should root on severe then we know it will trend back colder Good luck with that.. Ofcourse being as far east as you are i suppose there is somewhat of a better chance to get a ice storm out of it atleast. Gonna need the 12z runs to go a bit south though. Why i wont bet on your backyard YET. See what happens at 12z. Here i know it is toast. No coming back from this with only 48hrs to go. Too far into the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Good luck with that.. Ofcourse being as far east as you are i suppose there is somewhat of a better chance to get a ice storm out of it atleast. Gonna need the 12z runs to go a bit south though. Why i wont bet on your backyard YET. See what happens at 12z. Here i know it is toast. No coming back from this with only 48hrs to go. Too far into the warmth. Yeah maybe I am crazy as I will be driving home from work on Tuesday at midnight, but an ice storm is always cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah maybe I am crazy as I will be driving home from work on Tuesday at midnight, but an ice storm is always cool. I hear you. If i did not have so many power lines around this house i wouldn't mind it. Plus i am still aggravated from the last ice storm. Can thank the cable people for that for taking 3 weeks to get the Cable TV/Internet crap fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hear you. If i did not have so many power lines around this house i wouldn't mind it. Plus i am still aggravated from the last ice storm. Can thank the cable people for that for taking 3 weeks to get the Cable TV/Internet crap fixed. Man I would have been blowing up the cable companies phone lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 any info on qpf amounts from the cmc for far and gfk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Hi guys, just looking at some of my things, I am seeing a general 4-7" swath across the N. ND into N. MN through the 22nd. I have updated a graphic for that area for the exact locations. Any further thoughts into this? Snowfall: http://smartwxmodel.net/usa.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 ORD has always been firmly in the warm sector. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 looks like the 06z run of the GFS is a bit more moist and cooler at surface especially across SEMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 This is going to be very wet snow that is going to stick to everything. The NWS said whoever gets the heavy snow will have to be dealing with down power lines due to the combo of wet snow and high winds. So far the worst is going south of me, but it is pretty close. Southern Houghton county, and Ontonagon counties are under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 0z Euro appears warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Do you have precip totals for euro? If so could you run klse. Rivers already running quite high. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 looks like the 06z run of the GFS is a bit more moist and cooler at surface especially across SEMI Indeed, and Nam looks colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I hear you. If i did not have so many power lines around this house i wouldn't mind it. Plus i am still aggravated from the last ice storm. Can thank the cable people for that for taking 3 weeks to get the Cable TV/Internet crap fixed. Yeah that sucks. Have had a few glaze events every winter, but i havent seen a real ice storm since April 2003, and even that was worse to my north. (Also saw a bad ice storm in Jan 2002 following heavy snow, and one in Feb 2001). The Jan 2007 ice storm had trees as close as DTW draped in ice while here we had just a few icicles, thanks to it being literally 32.8F during most of the storm. Then as you know Feb 20th this year we were supposed to have ice storm but ended up with 10.2" of snow. So basically something always goes wrong, and when we finally DO have an ice storm residents of my town wont know what to do . Will take any snow in a heartbeat over ice, hell Feb 20th was one of my favorite snowstorms EVER....but still say id like to see ice over rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 still holding out hope down here along the 59 corridor. Still plenty of time to trend south and colder! NVM the only model that was on my side (NAM) is now warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 12z NAM certainly so far looks like its sticking to the ice southern half of the area, snow northern half scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 12z NAM certainly so far looks like its sticking to the ice southern half of the area, snow northern half scenario. Serious precip amounts along and north of 94. Possible dynamic cooling along and north of 59 could keep us all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Serious precip amounts along and north of 94. Possible dynamic cooling along and north of 59 could keep us all snow? I'd have to look at bufkit when it comes out, but that could be the case, though its a very touchy situation that can very easily change. Although, I might add this run there is more ice than previous runs for the M-59 to I-69 corridor. Talk about a gradient too, Lima Ohio 65, Toledo 32-35 at hour 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 I'd have to look at bufkit when it comes out, but that could be the case, though its a very touchy situation that can very easily change. Although, I might add this run there is more ice than previous runs for the M-59 to I-69 corridor. Come a little south and lock in the 12z NAM. Wow almost 2.5 of precip along 94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Come a little south and lock in the 12z NAM. Wow Yeah NAM going crazy with QPF from border up to US 10, with a bullseye of 1.5 between 94 and 96/69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Yeah NAM going crazy with QPF from border up to US 10, with a bullseye of 1.5 between 94 and 96/69 Too bad there's no other model backing its track. Still NAm vs GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizznd Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Up here in eastern ND anticipating a heavy wet snow 10-16 inches Minot east-southeast to Grand Forks and Fargo a bit less south of Fargo where more mix will occur....tight southern gradient. This will push the spring flooding well into April which is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 Up here in eastern ND anticipating a heavy wet snow 10-16 inches Minot east-southeast to Grand Forks and Fargo a bit less south of Fargo where more mix will occur....tight southern gradient. This will push the spring flooding well into April which is not good. Ya this should be a fun event, gonna be a very heavy wet snow and there may be a slight concern for some tree damage and powerlines with the wind picking up and everything plastered with snow. Flooding is going to be a nightmare, I could only imagine if we get a big storm to cut up west of us during the flood, I think the recent flood outlook said that the average precip for the 6 week period from march 1st to april 15th was around 1.6" of liquid, We are going to go well above that with the next event and we are only halfway through that period . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted March 21, 2011 Share Posted March 21, 2011 NAM going to score a coup with its southern solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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