pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 nobody wants a snow hype machine at this time of year everyone blindly follows the models even though they dupe us nonstop during the heart of winter This is happening big time up in the NYC forum. Pretty funny, people are calling for a HECS during the first week of APRIL along the coastal plain. Ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 0z GFS makes no sense with the blocking.. 0z euro too warm but track more likely Its late March..Not sure how yo ucan say its too warm...Just because the teleconnections may be the same that they were in JAN does not mean the same results. 6z GFS and 0z GGEM both back to a fairly weak/suppressed look. Precip doesn't really make it north of the Mason/Dixon line. Probably flurries/light snow overnight Saturday for DC and Baltimore. Which would lead to little or no accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 This is happening big time up in the NYC forum. Pretty funny, people are calling for a HECS during the first week of APRIL along the coastal plain. Ok. i could see us getting a coating or so if things work out for the best. im about to write off the weekend system as i think the euro is probably more right than the gfs at this point. the next week deal has a lot of time to go more wrong but SNE will probably get another foot from it in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 i could see us getting a coating or so if things work out for the best. im about to write off the weekend system as i think the euro is probably more right than the gfs at this point. the next week deal has a lot of time to go more wrong but SNE will probably get another foot from it in elevation. idk they were expecting a lot more but today's 12z runs have really stuck a knife in their back when you think about it, their winter was very similar to ours last year, a ton of snow packed in a few weeks, followed by a lousy mid-FEB on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 gfs looks pretty blah with the weekend system tho it's interesting the surface is colder than 850 on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 gfs looks pretty blah with the weekend system tho it's interesting the surface is colder than 850 on sunday. GFS has the system to come through Sunday mainly during the day....no way will surface temps cooperate with that set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 next week looks awesome if you like being fringed by light sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 big northeast hecs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_162m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 time to start hyping this bad boy http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_240m.gif im all over the dt train -- lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 time to start hyping this bad boy http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_240m.gif im all over the dt train -- lol Not sure Ive seen a low over Jacksonville Produce snow up to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 Not sure Ive seen a low over Jacksonville Produce snow up to DC Agree. That setup has OTS written all over it. Fringed with cold rain as the best case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 12z euro hr 96 has 0.10 to dc 850 -8c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 12z euro hr 96 has 0.10 to dc 850 -8c yep..it brought back qpf..looks like we will have snow falling on sunday at the very least. looks like snow will fall early sunday morning while its still dark. total .14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 yep..it brought back qpf..looks like we will have snow falling on sunday at the very least. looks like snow will fall early sunday morning while its still dark. total .14 more snow at hr 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 snow a few days later according to my euro mos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 looks like about .25 for dc with the next week storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 .14 on Sunday .18 on monday night any more mildew? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 by tomorrow..the qpf for Storm 2 will be .09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 the guys up north must be lovin the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 snow a few days later according to my euro mos ric looks darn close to snow -2C 850's -4 just to the north 32 line just west of ric 0.50"+ check it out on mos ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 the guys up north must be lovin the 12z runs why? north trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 why? north trend? they were talking about a hecs now multiple models give them nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 23, 2011 Author Share Posted March 23, 2011 they were talking about a hecs now multiple models give them nothing. its a probably a good thing EURO isnt showing a big storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 its a probably a good thing EURO isnt showing a big storm now i suppose. i'd bet on the look its showing now being more right than what it had yesterday though. flat and east makes sense in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 23, 2011 Share Posted March 23, 2011 storm 2 looks crappy unless you're near the pa border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Still looks like some decent possibility out there. Be interested to see how it plays out. Why couldn't these chances have come in Feb? What a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 idk they were expecting a lot more but today's 12z runs have really stuck a knife in their back when you think about it, their winter was very similar to ours last year, a ton of snow packed in a few weeks, followed by a lousy mid-FEB on the sne storm thread is rich tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 the sne storm thread is rich tonight I like the fact that they are worried about the confluence--- even into next week. Their loss COULD be our gain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 24, 2011 Share Posted March 24, 2011 Not that the NAM is gospel at 84-- but its pushing a big warm nose between 800 and 700 MB-- so its already looking more like a SLEET event down here--- Add the 100 mile slide north and we get some rain, CHO gets some sleet and the snow grazes DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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