yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 it probably is dc area and north at least the dt fantasy storm might produce some backlash with a stacked low just east. n and e would still be favored.. and it's 400 million days off. Well the 850s and 2m temps would support it... in fact 2m temps would imply 20s But yeah, I know i am reading too far into it and its WAY off. But just think if we ended up getting a SECS... i would not be well liked at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Well the 850s and 2m temps would support it... in fact 2m temps would imply 20s But yeah, I know i am reading too far into it and its WAY off. But just think if we ended up getting a SECS... i would not be well liked at work verbatim it's like 1-3" probably .. if it was that cold at the surface which is doubtful at game time. h5 is still north of what we'd want too. it will trend north a bit if it's real imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 verbatim it's like 1-3" probably .. if it was that cold at the surface which is doubtful at game time. h5 is still north of what we'd want too. it will trend north a bit if it's real imo. true h5 is not where we would like it.. but it seems there would be a good amount of QPF for more than 1-3. 24 hr QPF to 192 had at least .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I like me some model chasin' in late March for wintry weather - who da thunk it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 euro cut back on the qpf for the sunday storm but also shows a noreaster 2 days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 euro cut back on the qpf for the sunday storm but also shows a noreaster 2 days later It shows an OTS after dumping some snow over the region. The Northeast doesn't even see a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Will be drizzle by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 6z GFS says congrats CHO and EZF. But timing of it sucks...Sunday afternoon. Much more believable to get snow during darkness at this time of year. Has afternoon high temps at or below freezing for the big cities on Sunday. More snow for VA with the Tuesday storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still waiting for the maps/models to show the warm-up that will stick. Any warm-up at this point would be fine. One day warm followed by six days cool/cold is a crappy pattern for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 6z GFS says congrats CHO and EZF. But timing of it sucks...Sunday afternoon. Much more believable to get snow during darkness at this time of year. Has afternoon high temps at or below freezing for the big cities on Sunday. More snow for VA with the Tuesday storm! There has never been a subfreezing high later than March 24th at DCA and March 18th at IAD. Just for perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 There has never been a subfreezing high later than March 24th at DCA and March 18th at IAD. Just for perspective. Even better, since DCA moved to its current location, the latest subfreezing day is probably not going to surprise you: 3-14-1993 28 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 6z GFS says congrats CHO and EZF. But timing of it sucks...Sunday afternoon. Much more believable to get snow during darkness at this time of year. Has afternoon high temps at or below freezing for the big cities on Sunday. More snow for VA with the Tuesday storm! There has never been a subfreezing high later than March 24th at DCA and March 18th at IAD. Just for perspective. Looking at the record cold maxes IAD has seen a 35F on 3/24/71 and that was under -10.1C H85 temps. The amazing 7.6" at 18:1 ratios from 3/30/64 - 3/31/64 fell with H85 at -11.2C at 0Z on the 30th, -14.9C at 12Z on the 31st and -9.3C at 0Z on 4/1. The recorded highs were 37F and 39F. The coldest April high ever, 38F, resulted from a 12Z H85 temp of -10.1. It's gonna take a lot to make the GFS's 18Z temp of 29F verify with a 12Z H85 starting point of -7.8C. The EC's 36F under -10C u/l is probably more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Still waiting for the maps/models to show the warm-up that will stick. Any warm-up at this point would be fine. One day warm followed by six days cool/cold is a crappy pattern for this time of year. spring has not been that bad so far tempwise. as others have noted we dont generally have solidly warm springs. still, 100 billion times better than spring in boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 spring has not been that bad so far tempwise. as others have noted we dont generally have solidly warm springs. still, 100 billion times better than spring in boston. It hasn't been great either (altho, yes, it's not as bad as the NE). We touch 70, and then get days of wind and much cooler temps. I am probably more annoyed because it seems to be warmest on Fridays with corrections on the weekend when I might enjoy it. And it if ticks as cold as it is showing for the next week (setting aside whether it will snow or not), it certainly won't change my perception of this start of this spring. This late in March almost to April, I start to yearn for a series of days in the 60s or near 70, and we have not really had a stretch (over a period of days) of warm weather anywhere close to that yet. This is the one time of the year I miss Memphis weather. The springs in western TN are prolonged and glorious. Course, they pay for that starting right around June 1 with a summer of oppressive humidity laden heat. I don't miss that. ETA: Just double checked my memory with the actual highs at BWI for the last few months, here is February: http://www.wundergro...y.html#calendar A 74 on Friday Feb. 18 followed by a sharply colder weekend and a 67 on Friday Feb. 25 followed by a sharply colder weekend. And here is March: http://www.wundergro...y.html#calendar Still no sequence of days in the 60s to speak of. This past weekend was 81 on Friday (again on a Friday) followed by 67 and then 50 for highs. Just noting we have not really hit a stretch where a SE ridge has set up and given us consistent warmth. Maybe after this next 7-day period we will finally get some of that. I am ready for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Last Spring had +5 departures on average for March, April, May. Loved it, but storms were scarce which sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Last Spring had +5 departures on average for March, April, May. Loved it, but storms were scarce which sucked. Yeah, the lack of stormy weather was a bit of a downside to that extra warmth. And another downside was spring flowers burned off faster. We certain'y are not +5 for March to date at any rate. I have not looked, but figure we are running slightly below normal to date, at least at BWI. ETA: Actually, glancing at the temp graph it appears BWI may be slightly above average for the month so far. So, colder than last year, certainly, but not overly cold historically. http://www.accuweather.com/us/md/baltimore/21201/forecast-month.asp?view=table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, the lack of stormy weather was a bit of a downside to that extra warmth. And another downside was spring flowers burned off faster. We certain'y are not +5 for March to date at any rate. I have not looked, but figure we are running slightly below normal to date, at least at BWI. ETA: Actually, glancing at the temp graph it appears BWI may be slightly above average for the month so far. So, colder than last year, certainly, but not overly cold historically. http://www.accuweath....asp?view=table March is +4.0 right now at BWI. Way above normal. It will come down some later this week, but it is still going to end up a warm month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Yeah, the lack of stormy weather was a bit of a downside to that extra warmth. And another downside was spring flowers burned off faster. We certain'y are not +5 for March to date at any rate. I have not looked, but figure we are running slightly below normal to date, at least at BWI. ETA: Actually, glancing at the temp graph it appears BWI may be slightly above average for the month so far. So, colder than last year, certainly, but not overly cold historically. http://www.accuweath....asp?view=table Actually, this March at BWI has been very similar to last March with overall temperature departures and precipitation. Last March finished with a +4.8 departure and this March (so far) is a +4.0 departure (though this will probably fall a bit now once the cold spell comes later in the week). http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwi0310.txt http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/climate/bwi/bwi0311.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 March is +4.0 right now at BWI. Way above normal. It will come down some later this week, but it is still going to end up a warm month. If the progs verify for Thursday (this week) through the end of the month, that would take a big hit. It would take the last 8 days of the month (starting Thursday) to average 11°F below normal to erase that +4 departure. That's a tall order, but not completely out of the realm of possibility if the progs verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 spring has not been that bad so far tempwise. as others have noted we dont generally have solidly warm springs. still, 100 billion times better than spring in boston. what? you dont like snow at the end of MArch/early April? Back door cold fronts thru the end of May with temps in the 40's for highs with overcast skies and drizzle? You are nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 gfs looks decent for n md sat/sun.. but it's such a long/light event it would be interesting to see how well it accumulates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 looks good for next week too would be fookin weird if we got several events at this time of yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 again, you gotta lol at the GFS and two potential events the last week of March. Neither will pan out, but it would be nice to end this miserable winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 again, you gotta lol at the GFS and two potential events the last week of March. Neither will pan out, but it would be nice to end this miserable winter. If this wasn't the last week of March, this thread would probably have 30+ pages already. There's a lot to like about the next 7-10 days (-NAO, 50/50 low, cold air, active southern storm track). Unfortunately it is the last week of March...still I think there's a good chance that most of the area north of DC at least sees some flakes in the next week even if nothing accumulates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 Late March 1997, South Jersey got about five inches of snow. There was a sharp cutoff though. Doubt if DC got any snow with that one. But it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 22, 2011 Author Share Posted March 22, 2011 GFS for JYO(leesburg) is below 0 at 850 the entire 1st storm with .60 qpf. Surface below freezing for entire event SAT 12Z 26-MAR -1.7 -4.2 1018 74 96 0.01 553 539 SAT 18Z 26-MAR -0.3 -2.4 1015 92 99 0.19 553 541 SUN 00Z 27-MAR -0.7 -1.2 1014 98 93 0.12 554 542 SUN 06Z 27-MAR -1.1 -0.6 1011 98 95 0.03 553 545 SUN 12Z 27-MAR -1.3 0.8 1011 98 95 0.26 553 544 SUN 18Z 27-MAR 0.6 -1.2 1013 100 71 0.03 552 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GGEM is all snow for points northward of DC (DC right on the edge) for Saturday. Snow lasts from 9-22z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GGEM is all snow for points northward of DC (DC right on the edge) for Saturday. Snow lasts from 9-22z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html If the Euro comes in similar or holds, might be time to start talking seriously about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 GGEM is all snow for points northward of DC (DC right on the edge) for Saturday. Snow lasts from 9-22z. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html I like 13-15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 22, 2011 Share Posted March 22, 2011 I like 13-15z If I can add my millimeter fractions correctly, looks about 4-6mm for most of northern MD/NVA/WV panhandle. So, that's around ~0.2" of QPF...not very much. Also since it's coming in the daytime predominately...would be tough to accumulate all of that. A point in our favor is that 850 temps would be plenty cold (-3 - -6C). GFS is >0.5" of QPF for this storm. FYI for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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